Geostrategic Diary – June 7, 2022 a.m.

First published in The Science of Where Magazine

FOCUS

  • June 6, 2022. By Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS. The Ukraine conflict is already providing a wide range of lessons about the role of modern military forces in modern war, but it is also providing equally important lessons about the future of the civil side of war. Barring some massive political changes in Russia, the conflict is a warning that the civil side of war is becoming far more dangerous. Furthermore, it is yet another example that the kind of civil conflicts and crises that have emerged from the Iran-Iraq War, the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars, and the wars the U.S. and its allies have fought against extremists in Iraq and Afghanistan are now the rule and not the exception. The Longer-Term Impact of the Ukraine Conflict and the Growing Importance of the Civil Side of War

THINK TANKS & GLOBAL NEWS

TECH, DIGITAL, CYBER

  • June 7, 2022. By , The Strategist. Anthony Albanese’s first state visit to Indonesia as prime minister saw economics and investment at the top of the agenda, subjects of particular interest to President Joko Widodo. Considering that digital technology is becoming an ever more ubiquitous part of everyday life, cybersecurity should emerge at the top of the agenda in future Australian engagements with Indonesia. Australia and Indonesia should work to deepen cyber ties
  • June 7, 2022. By  and , The Strategist. Enabled by digital technologies and fuelled by geopolitical competition, hybrid threats in the Indo-Pacific are increasing in breadth, application and intensity. Hybrid threats are a mix of military, non-military, covert and overt activities by state and non-state actors that occur below the level of conventional warfare. The consequences for individual nations include weakened institutions, disrupted social systems and economies, and greater vulnerability to coercion—especially from revisionist powers such as China. Countering hybrid threats in the Indo-Pacific
  • June 7, 2022. By Interfax. The Russian government will allocate more than 900 million rubles for the rollout of the latest information technology in the agriculture sector. Russian govt to allocate over 900 mln ruble for digital tech in agriculture
  • June 6, 2022. By Hu Weijia, Global Times. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on Sunday once again urged the US Congress to pass the CHIPS for America Act which aims to help strengthen the US position in semiconductor research, development and manufacturing. The administration of US President Joe Biden has repeatedly demonstrated its determination to restore US semiconductor manufacturing, but the months-delayed CHIPS Act makes Biden’s ambition sound like little more than lip service. This may disappoint US allies who hope to steal a free ride on US economic development, especially Japan. Raimondo signals gloomy prospects for US chip revival
  • June 6, 2022. By Global Times. It was only three years ago that Chinese telecoms authorities granted the first batch of 5G licenses for commercial use. Three years later, with over 1.6 million base stations installed nationwide and the number of 5G mobile phone users far exceeding 410 million, the large-scale application of 5G in China has entered a critical period, nurturing enormous economic driving force, companies and experts said on Monday. After three years of 5G commercial use, Chinese firms eye next generation of network
  • June 6, 2022. By Nir Kshetri, East Asia Forum. Blockchain is transforming supply chains and facilitating cross-border transactions. In 2020, Anglo-Australian mining, metals and petroleum company BHP completed its first trade with Chinese iron and steel company Baowu on MineHub Technologies’ blockchain-based platform. China Minmetals and BHP have also used MineHub’s platform to share inter-company and cross-border data, such as information related to emissions and metals assay. Blockchain will revolutionise supply chains across the Asia Pacific
  • June 6, 2022. By Aileen Nielsen, Brookings. The contours of acceptable online speech, and the appropriate mechanisms to ensure meaningful online communities, are among the most contentious policy debates in America today. Moderating content that is not per se illegal but that likely creates significant harm has proven particularly divisive. Many on the left insist digital platforms haven’t done enough to combat hate speech, misinformation, and other potentially harmful material, while many on the right argue that platforms are doing far too much—to the point where “Big Tech” is censoring legitimate speech and effectively infringing on Americans’ fundamental rights. As Congress weighs new regulation for digital platforms, and as states like Texas and Florida create social media legislation of their own, the importance and urgency of the issue is only set to grow. Misunderstandings of the First Amendment hobble content moderation
  • June 6, 2022. By Nick Fouriezos, Atlantic Council. The Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) presents the fifth annual 360/Open Summit on June 6 and 7 at the Square, in-person in Brussels and online around the world. 360/OS session time are listed in Central European Summer Time (CEST). Our global team of experts from five continents will convene alongside policymakers and journalists, activists and advocates, and industry representatives for two days of cutting-edge programming. The theme of this year’s 360/OS is Contested Realities | Connected Futures. Facing generational global challenges and unprecedented technological innovation, communities and countries are struggling to agree on a shared set of facts. Emboldened autocrats seek to undermine the very idea of collective action that underpins the democratic world. While democracy versus autocracy, fact versus fiction, and who should hold power are contested, one thing is certain: our futures are connected. As today’s competition shapes the global system for generations to come, it is up to this community of activists, industry leaders, and public servants to work together to create a rights-respecting, transparent, and representative future for all.  Spyware like Pegasus is a warning: Digital authoritarianism can happen in democracies, too

AROUND THE WORLD

Americas

China

Georgia – Europe

  • June 6, 2022. By Beka Chedia, The Jamestown Foundation. On June 3, at the Global Security Forum, in Bratislava, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili declared, “I will say without exaggeration that Georgia has always been a leader among Eastern European countries.” He added that Georgia had done its homework on joining the European Union, and now it was the EU’s turn (Facebook.com/GaribashviliOfficial, June 3). While shifting the responsibility for resolving the issue of Georgia receiving candidate status to Brussels, Garibashvili asserted that, in all respects, Tbilisi was ahead of fellow EU aspirants from the former Soviet space—Kyiv and Chisinau (Facebook.com/GaribashviliOfficial, June 3). Yet the European Union Delegation to Georgia has expressed some reservations. Several days earlier, the head of the EU mission in Tbilisi, Ambassador Carl Hartzell, agreed that the Georgian authorities had reason to be proud of their achievements, which earned the country the informal title of “leader” of the Eastern Partnership (EaP). But on the other hand, the pace of Georgian reforms had stalled, and the EU was increasingly concerned about the country’s current trajectory (Amerikiskhma.com, May 30). Georgia Claims Pole Position Among Eastern European EU Aspirants

Kazakhstan

Malaysia

  • June 7, 2022. By Eugene Mark, East Asia Forum. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constricting the global supply of edible oils, demand for palm oil has spiked. But as the war continues, supply remains uncertain. Indonesia’s export ban on crude palm oil, palm kernel oil and cooking oils added further strain. Sustainable palm oil production is in Malaysia’s hand

Myanmar

New Zealand – Russia – Belarus

Poland – Belarus

  • June 7, 2022. By HRW. The effort by Belarus to confront the EU at the Polish border with migrants and asylum seekers as the victims persists. Poland unlawfully, and sometimes violently, summarily pushes migrants and asylum seekers back to Belarus, where they face serious abuses, including beatings and rape by border guards and other security forces. At least one person drowned and another disappeared in March 2022 in the course of being pushed back. Violence and Pushbacks at Poland-Belarus Border

Russia

Russia – Africa

Russia – Arctic

  • June 6, 2022. By Sergey Sukhankin, The Jamestown Foundation. The unprovoked large-scale Russian military aggression against Ukraine, launched on February 24, is putting at risk the Kremlin’s ambitious plans related to economic exploitation of the Arctic region and the Russian High North. Not only are the Russian war on Ukraine and the associated punitive sanctions adopted by the West undermining Moscow’s ability to capitalize on its large liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects located in the Arctic region, but they are also creating problems for domestic oil producers, whose remaining reserves are overwhelmingly found in the High North and Siberia (see Part One in EDM, June 1). Russia’s Arctic Strategy Melting Under the Scorch of Sanctions (Part Two)

Russia – IAEA – Iran

Russia – Ukraine

Thailand

UK 

Ukraine

USA

  • June 7, 2022. By Kenneth K. Wong and Coral Flanagan, Brookings. On the first day of his presidency, Joe Biden signed Executive Order 13985.“Our Nation deserves an ambitious whole-of-government equity agenda,” the order states. “It is therefore the policy of my Administration that the Federal Government should pursue a comprehensive approach to advancing equity for all.” This order triggered a comprehensive review of federal policy and practice to eliminate governmental barriers to equal access to public education and other services. Education policy through executive action: Comparing the Biden and Trump presidencies
  • June 6, 2022. By Frank Konkel, Defense One. President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act on Monday in an effort to beef up clean energy manufacturing, lower energy costs for American families, and improve national security through reduced reliance on foreign counterparts for gas and oil. Biden Invokes Defense Production Act to Boost Clean Energy Manufacturing
  • June 6, 2022. By Norman EisenDonald AyerJoshua PerryNoah Bookbinder, and E. Danya Perry, Brookings. President Joe Biden legitimately won a fair and secure 2020 presidential election—and Donald Trump lost. This historical fact has been uncontroverted by any evidence since at least November 7, 2020, when major news outlets projected Biden’s victory. But Trump never conceded. Instead, both before and after Election Day, he tried to delegitimize the election results by disseminating a series of far-fetched and evidence-free claims of fraud. Meanwhile, with a ring of close confidants, Trump conceived and implemented unprecedented schemes to—in his own words—“overturn” the election outcome. Among the results of this “Big Lie” campaign were the terrible events of January 6, 2021—an inflection point in what we now understand was nothing less than an attempted coup. Trump on Trial: A Guide to the January 6 Hearings and the Question of Criminality

USA – South Korea – North Korea

DEFENSE, MILITARY, SPACE

PERSPECTIVES

  • June 7, 2022. By Global Times. The finance ministers and central bank governors from the BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa , agreed on expanding financial cooperation such as supporting the amendment of the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) treaty and encouraging cooperation on the New Development Bank, by signing a joint statement during a virtual meeting on Monday as the countries look to strengthen cooperation in the face of external pressures like COVID-19 outbreaks. Officials from BRICS countries call for deeper financial cooperation
  • June 6, 2022. By Addisu Lashitew, Brookings. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments—financial assets that fulfill certain minimum social and environmental criteria—are expected to reach $50 trillion in assets by 2025. While this implies a significant reallocation of capital toward sustainable activities, the extent to which ESG investments advance climate transition is unclear because of lack of standardization in their classification. The explosive growth of ESG investments in the past two decades took place in the context of a lax regulatory regime for sustainability disclosure. Corporate managers were free to choose what to disclose and in what format, which led to a hodgepodge of voluntary disclosure standards. The outcome is ESG data that is incomplete, unreliable, and difficult to compare across firms. The coming of age of sustainability disclosure: How do rules differ between the US and the EU?

Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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