Geostrategic Diary – June 6, 2022 p.m.

First published in The Science of Where Magazine

FOCUS

• June 6, 2022. By Carlos Morales, Info Security. Cyber-attacks have increased in recent years, so much so that even countries cannot be expected to go it alone to defend themselves effectively. Recently, the European Commission proposed new rules to introduce greater consistency in “cyber and information security measures across EU institutions, bodies, offices and agencies.” The goal is to shore up the bloc’s public administration, given increasing threats originating from opportunities afforded by increased digitization and connectivity, continued pandemic challenges, heightened geopolitical tensions and beyond. European Commission Acknowledges the Evolving Threat Landscape

THINK TANKS & GLOBAL NEWS

TECH, DIGITAL, CYBER

• June 6, 2022. By Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. A report published late last month by Forrester outlines some of the challenges that healthcare organizations face, including security and compliance issues, and provides best practices when implementing technologies such as cloud platforms, artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML), and Software-as-a-Service. Shift to Cloud Key Strategy in Healthcare, But Challenges Persist
• June 6, 2022. By Benjamin David, Info Security. Gloucester City Council’s IT systems are still not fully operational almost six months after it was targeted by Russian hackers. Gloucester Council IT Systems Still Not Fully Operational Six Months After Cyber-Attack
• June 6, 2022. By Benjamin David, Info Security. Russia’s Ministry of Construction, Housing and Utilities website has been reportedly hacked, with an internet search for the site leading to a “Glory to Ukraine” sign in Ukrainian. Russian Ministry Website Reportedly Hacked
• June 6, 2022. By Charlie Osborne, ZDNet. Researchers say that while ransomware attack volumes are dropping, shifts in gang activities have pivoted more attacks than ever to the finance sector. On Monday, cybersecurity firm KELA published its Ransomware victims and network access sales report (PDF), suggesting that the number of significant ransomware victims dropped by approximately 40%, recorded as 698 in Q1 compared to Q4 2021’s 982. Ransomware attacks have dropped. And gangs are attacking each other’s victims
• June 6, 2022. By Joe McKendrick, ZDNet. Cloud’s focus has evolved from lift-and-shift to supporting data-driven infrastructure. According to a recent Denodo survey, “IT is no longer the ‘hired hand’ of business.”. As cloud adoption grows, so do technology professionals’ business leadership roles
• June 6, 2022. By Angelica Mari, ZDNet. The increase in cybersecurity incidents in Brazil has led to soaring demand for insurance for risks in that area, according to numbers from the National Confederation of Insurers (CNseg). Demand for cyber risk insurance soars in Brazil
• June 6, 2022. By Gulf Business, Bloomberg. Bitcoin advanced, rising beyond the $30,000 level after languishing at the weekend. The largest cryptocurrency gained 2.1 per cent to $30,559 as of 9.29am in Singapore on Monday. Other cryptocurrencies also rose, with Ether rising 2.4 per cent and Polygon advancing 3.4 per cent. Bitcoin heads higher in attempt to escape $30,000 level
• June 6, 2022. By Lisa Johnston, Gulf Business. When aggregated and contextualised, data can help unlock sustainability dividends on the road to our common net-zero targets. Three ways data is helping industrial companies to achieve environmental KPIs

AROUND THE WORLD

Americas

• June 6, 2022. By Reuters. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Monday he would not attend the U.S.-hosted Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles this week because not all countries from the region were invited, but that he would visit President Joe Biden in July. Mexico president says won’t attend Americas Summit, will visit Biden in July

Baltic Sea

• June 6, 2022. By Naval News. Fourteen NATO allies, two NATO partner nations, over 45 ships, more than 75 aircraft, and approximately 7,000 personnel kick off Baltic Operations (BALTOPS 22) from Stockholm on 05 June 2022.  BALTOPS 22 Multinational Exercise kicks off in the Baltic Sea

Brazil

• June 6, 2022. By Francois Murphy, Reuters. Brazil has initiated discussions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) aimed at eventually allowing it to use nuclear fuel in a submarine for the first time, the U.N. watchdog’s chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday. Brazil initiates talks with IAEA on fuel for planned nuclear submarine

China – Russia

• June 2022. By LSE Ideas. Björn Alexander Düben analyses China’s reaction to, and motivation in implicitly supporting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as Putin’s strategic blunder becomes increasingly difficult to deal with. The author finds that, as long as Putin remains in power, long-term alignment since 2014 and a shared authoritarian world-view will cement closer ties between the PRC and Russian Federation; this at the cost of the latter devolving to a client-state dependent on China to keep its economy afloat, whilst the PRC’s cautious state banks further diminish Russian hopes of financial cooperation in order to avoid secondary sanctions from the West. What Putin’s War in Ukraine Means for the Future of China-Russia Relations

Dubai

• June 6, 2022. By Zainab Mansoor, Gulf Business. Dubai Airports is kicking off a new waste management initiative that will bolster its commitment to prevent 60 per cent of all waste generated from Dubai International (DXB) from entering landfills by the middle of 2023. Dubai Airports’ new initiative to divert 60% of DXB’s waste from landfills by mid-2023

East Congo

• June 6, 2022. By Erikas Mwisi Kambale, Reuters. Suspected Islamists killed at least 18 people in a village raid in eastern Congo on Sunday night, local sources said, while fighting resumed with the M23 rebel group in a neighbouring province. Suspected Islamists kill at least 18 in east Congo attack

Europe

• June 6, 2022. By World Nuclear News.  France’s Nuward small modular reactor (SMR) design will be the case study for a European early joint regulatory review led by the French nuclear safety regulator with the participation of the Czech and Finnish nuclear regulators, EDF has announced. European regulators to cooperate on Nuward SMR licensing : New Nuclear

India

• June 6, 2022. By Lydia Powell, Akhilesh Sati, Vinod Kumar Tomar, ORF. India is the world’s second-largest producer, consumer, and importer of coal after China. In 2020, India had the fifth-largest coal reserves of over 111 billion tonnes (BT), just below China which had the fourth-largest reserves of 143 BT. Though coal reserves are comparable in quantity, China produced 3.9 BT of coal in 2020, five times more than India’s production of 759 million tonnes (MT). In November 2021 and again in April-May 2022, a crisis of power supply attributed to low coal stocks at thermal power generation plants led the Indian government to push generators to import coal. This advice came at a time when seaborne thermal coal prices were at their highest levels. An increase in the use of imported coal not only contradicts India’s strategy of self-reliance for energy security but also compromises the quest for affordability, an idea that underpins most of India’s energy policy choices. Imported Coal: Source of Energy Security for India?

India – Latin America

• June 6, 2022. By ORF. For the first time in its history, India achieved annual exports of more than US$ 400 billion in 2021–22. The recently signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Australia and the United Arab Emirates and ongoing negotiations with the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Canada are certain to provide more incentives to Indian exporters. New Delhi’s reversal of policy to sign more trade agreements—after a hiatus of several years when such agreements were shunned for bringing too little benefit to India—is a welcome sign. These FTAs are being signed or negotiated with a list of usual suspects, countries that hold geopolitical and geoeconomic significance to India. Latin America: The last frontier for India’s foreign policy

India – Nepal

• June 6, 2022. By Sohini Nayak, ORF. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official visit to Lumbini, Nepal, on 16 May 2022 on the occasion of Buddha Purnima, held a propitious bilateral congregation for greater liaison on connectivity. On the heels of Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s India visit on 2 April 2022, this meeting not only undertook several new Memorandums of Agreement (MoUs) but also reflected the bonus partnership through a prism of multilateral institutions such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), insinuated through the nature of negotiations undertaken. Regional connectivity: An opportunity for India and Nepal

Kuwait

• June 6, 2022. By Gulf Business. EFG Hermes’ Investment Banking division has completed the advisory on Ali Alghanim and Sons Automotive Company’s $323m private placement ahead of the initial public offering (IPO) on Boursa Kuwait. EFG Hermes wraps up advisory on $323m private placement ahead of Ali Alghanim and Sons’ IPO

Lebanon – Israel – Hezbollah 

• June 6, 2022. Laila Bassam and Maya Gebeily, Reuters. Hezbollah is ready to take action “including force” against Israeli gas operations in disputed waters once the Lebanese government adopts a clearer policy, the heavily armed movement’s deputy leader told Reuters on Monday. Hezbollah says ‘ready’ to act if Lebanon says Israel violating water rights

Libya

• June 6, 2022. By The Libya Observer. PM Dbeibah discusses with French ambassador political, economic situation in the country
• June 6, 2022. By The Libya Observer. Al-Mishri, Turkish ambassador review HCS vision to get out of political impasse

Nigeria

• June 6, 2022. By Temilade Adelaja and Kazeem Sanni, Reuters. Victims of an attack on a Catholic church in Nigeria suffered lacerations, bullet wounds and blast injuries, a doctor at the local hospital said on Monday, suggesting a range of weapons were used by the unknown assailants. Nigeria church massacre victims suffered range of injuries, doctor says

Palestine

• June 6, 2022. By Reuters. Palestinian police made a number of arrests on Monday as protests against soaring prices for food and other necessities spread a day ahead of a planned strike to demand action from the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority. Palestinians protest against soaring prices ahead of strike

Russia – Pakistan 

• June 6, 2022. By Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Discussion Club. On June 6, 2022, Moscow will host the first Russian-Pakistani expert dialogue between the Valdai Discussion Club and the analytical centre Pakistan House – International Think Tank. Previously, the Valdai Club has repeatedly participated in expert events in Pakistan, and experts from various Pakistani analytical centres  have taken part in Valdai Club events, such as the Club’s Annual Meeting, and the Middle East and Central Asian Conferences. Now the Valdai Club and Pakistan House are entering a new stage of cooperation – a direct bilateral dialogue. It should be noted that major Russian-Pakistani conferences are still a rarity for the intellectual community of the two countries. The Valdai Club is one of the pioneers in this area. Prospects for Cooperation Between Russia and Pakistan

Russia – Ukraine

• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. Ukraine not prepared to consider exporting grain via Belarus – Zelensky
• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. Ukraine increases railway grain exports by 4.6% in May vs April – railways official
• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. Russian budget losses due to EU oil embargo could total $30-50 bln in 2023 – BCS GM
• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. Ukrzaliznytsia to report loss at end of 2022 – supervisory board member
• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. IAEA planning to send experts to Zaporizhzhya NPP – director general
• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. Ukraine’s AgroProsperis ships first wheat batch via Danube port
• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. SIBUR dissolves contract with Turkish contractor on construction of NKNC ethylene complex
• June 6, 2022. By Interfax. Russian producers of nitrogen fertilizer could index prices for domestic market below inflation
• June 6, 2022. By Ukrinform. President says visa travel with Russia realistic option
• June 6, 2022. By Ukrinform. Ukraine demands from Russia humane treatment of POWs – MFA
• June 6, 2022. By Ukrinform. U.S. to “do everything” to strengthen Ukraine’s hand on battlefield – Ambassador
• June 6, 2022. By Ukrinform. One person killed, one more injured in Russia’s shelling of Derhachi community
• June 6, 2022. By Ukrinform. Enemy keeps two boats and submarine carrying 20 Kalibr missiles in Black Sea
• June 6, 2022. By Ukrinform. Ukraine exported 148,000 t of grain and leguminous crops since early June 2022
• June 6, 2022. By Ukrinform. Mariupol suffers from stench: Corpses under the rubble, mountains of waste and morgues at supermarkets
• June 6, 2022. By Reuters. The U.S.-backed broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) has been fined 20 million roubles ($325,000) in Russia for failing to delete what Moscow calls “fake” news about its military operation in Ukraine, the Interfax news agency reported on Monday. U.S. broadcaster Radio Liberty fined $325,000 in Russia for ‘fake news’ – Interfax
• June 6, 2022. By Natalia Zinets and Pavel Polityuk, Reuters. Ukrainian and Russian troops fought street-by-street to win control of the industrial city of Sievierodonetsk on Monday in the pivotal battle of the Kremlin’s eastern Ukraine offensive. Battle for Ukraine’s Sievierodonetsk ebbs and flows through city streets
• June 6, 2022. By Manoj Joshi, ORF. Last Tuesday, in Tallinn, Estonia, General Paul Nakasone, the Head of the United States (US) Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, told a British TV channel that the US was conducting offensive hacking operations in support of Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion. Studied in conjunction with the better-known role of American private firms like SpaceX, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, it helps explain Ukraine’s resilience in the face of a sustained Russian military attack that combines both kinetic and digital weapons. The Russia–Ukraine War: Ukraine’s resistance in the face of hybrid warfare
• June 6, 2022. By Reuters. Moscow said on Monday that Western deliveries of longer-range arms to Kyiv would make Russia push Ukrainian forces further back from its borders, essentially increasing the potential territorial losses for Ukraine in the invasion. Russia says it will push Ukrainian forces back to defend against longer-range weapons
• June 6, 2022. By  Natalia Zinets, Reuters. Oleg Averyanov’s factory produced fire trucks and employed 600 people until it was forced to halt operations and close its doors as a Russian invasion force poured over the border into his region in northeastern Ukraine on Feb. 24. Ukraine rebases businesses from war front to shield vital producers
• June 6, 2022. By Natalia Zinets and Pavel Polityuk, Reuters. Intense fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces raged in the streets of the industrial city of Sievierodonetsk on Monday in a pivotal battle for advantage in eastern Ukraine, the provincial governor said. Battle for Ukraine’s Sievierodonetsk ebbs and flows through city streets

Russia – USA

• June 6, 2022. By Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters. Russia warned U.S. news organisations on Monday they risked being stripped of their accreditation unless the treatment of Russian journalists in the United States improves, according to three sources with knowledge of the matter. Russia warns U.S. media in Moscow they risk losing their accreditation – sources

Saudi Arabia

• June 6, 2022. By Gulf Business. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for its biggest market of Asia by more than expected as demand rises with the region’s main economies easing coronavirus restrictions. Saudi raises oil prices amid Asia rebound

Saudi Arabia – Jordan

• June 6, 2022. By Gulf Business. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund will take a $185m stake in Capital Bank of Jordan as part of deal to help the lender expand. Saudi wealth fund to take $185m Jordanian bank stake

Singapore

• June 6, 2022. By Reuters. Singapore’s finance minister, Lawrence Wong, will be promoted to deputy prime minister on June 13, according to an official statement released on Monday, taking a step closer to becoming the leader of the city-state. Factbox: Singapore’s PM-in-waiting takes new step towards leadership

Sri Lanka

• June 6, 2022. By Reuters. Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will finish the remaining two years of his term despite months-long street protests calling for his ouster but won’t stand for re-election, he told Bloomberg. Sri Lanka’s president vows to finish term, but won’t run for re-election

Syria

• June 6, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR activists have reported seeing trucks of the International Coalition exit from Al-Hasakah city and headed towards coalition bases in Al-Shaddadi and Deir Ezzor. Military reinforcement | Trucks loaded with logistical and military supplies arrive at Coalition bases in Al-Shaddadi and Deir Ezzor
• June 6, 2022. By SOHR. Growing Anti-Syrian Sentiment in Turkey | Young Syrian man killed by robbers in Istanbul
• June 6, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR activists have monitored new patrol conducted by Russian “Military Police” and Turkish forces in Ain Al-Arab/ Kobani countryside. 101st joint patrol | Russian and Turkish forces tour Ain Al-Arab (Kobani) countryside
• June 6, 2022. By SOHR. IED attack | Turkish-backed “Asifat Al-Shamal” commander’s car hit by IED near Syria-Turkey border, north of Aleppo
• June 6, 2022. By SOHR. Clashes erupted in the early hours of Monday morning between “National Army” factions and military forces operating in the area on the frontlines of Al-Kawkali and Al-Sajour villages, west of Manbij. Violent shelling and clashes | Ankara-backed factions and forces operating in Manbij countryside trade fire
• June 6, 2022. By SOHR. For the second consecutive day, the areas in the northern and north-western countryside of Al-Hasakah see cautious calm imposed by the Russians amid a sharp decline in artillery and rocket shelling from Al-Darbasiyah countryside through Tel Tamr countryside and into Abu Rasin/Zarkan countryside. Second day in row | Russians impose cautious calm in north-west Al-Hassakeh countryside following injury of six regime soldiers
• June 6, 2022. By SOHR. SOHR sources in Palmyra in the eastern countryside of Homs have reported that nearly a week ago, regime Military Security Branch of the Military Intelligence summoned four young men from Palmyra and arrested them after leaving with their families Al-Rukban camp in the eastern desert of Syria at the borders with Jordan and Iraq about a month ago. Recently left Al-Rukban camp | “Military Security” branch arrests four young men returned to Palmyra
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Lebanon’s foreign minister in the caretaker government, Abdullah Bou Habib, said Beirut will not cooperate with Europeans on keeping Syrian refugees in his country.  Lebanon Refuses to Cooperate with Europeans to Keep Syrian Refugees
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) announced in its latest report, released Friday, that it documented at least 147 arbitrary arrests/detentions in May 2022, including 13 children and four women, noting that the Syrian regime arbitrarily arrested 57 citizens in May and that arbitrary arrests continue following the issuance of the Amnesty Decree. 147 Arbitrary Arrests Documented in May: Syrian Network Humanitarian Law
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The eighth round of talks on a new constitution for Syria concluded on Friday with rival parties having made very little headway, the United Nations mediator said. UN-Mediated Syria Constitution Talks Yield ‘Little Progress’
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The Syrian National Committee for International Humanitarian Law, in cooperation with the International Committee of the Red Cross, organized Sunday a workshop under the slogan “(international humanitarian law) means of national implementation and legislative harmonization” at the Sheraton Damascus Hotel. Jaafari: Syria Pioneer in Raising Awareness on International Humanitarian Law
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The two main researchers in the team to uncover the massacre in the al-Tadamon neighbourhood of Damascus, Ansar Shahoud, and Professor Ugur Ungor, issued a statement to the families of the massacre victims about the mechanism for identifying the victims.  Call for Families of Tadamon Massacre Victims to Provide German Police with Information
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces would coordinate with Syrian government troops to fend off any Turkish invasion of the north, the SDF commander told Reuters on Sunday, saying Damascus should use its air defence systems against Turkish planes.  SDF: Syria Army Should Use Air Defenses Against Turkish Invasion
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Iranian militias fear the start of the Turkish military operation in northern Syria, due to the proximity of their areas of operation in the areas of Nubl and al-Zahraa north of Aleppo to the city of Tal Rifaat –which the Turkish army and the Syrian National Army want to control. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed this news a few days ago.  Iran May Defend Some Areas as Turkish Operation Begins in Aleppo
• June 6, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. On Saturday evening, a local group affiliated with the Syrian regime’s military intelligence branch kidnapped several officers, police, and security personnel in the southern Syrian city of Suweida. The kidnapping included the police chief and the head of the Criminal Security Branch. The aim of this kidnapping is to pressure the State Security Branch in the capital, Damascus, in order to release one of the group’s detainees from the city.  Suweida: Kidnapping of Head of Criminal Security branch and Police Chief

Turkey

• June 6, 2022. By Burak Ege Bekdil, Defense News. After the controversial, multibillion-dollar purchase of a Russian-made missile defense system, the Turkish government appears to be taking advantage of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine to force a return to the Western procurement system. Turkey seeks to repair ties with Western procurement club

UAE

• June 6, 2022. By Gulf Business. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has ordered the completion of all housing grant applications submitted in previous years through the Sheikh Zayed Housing Programme, at a total cost of around Dhs2.3bn. UAE President orders completion of pending housing grant applications
• June 6, 2022. By Gulf Business. Aldar Properties has launched the third cycle of its Manassah programme, a six-month incubator aimed at cultivating entrepreneurial talent and retail concepts in the UAE – to become part of Aldar’s retail portfolio. Aldar’s Manassah 3.0 programme to incubate F&B startups
• June 6, 2022. By Zubina Ahmed, Gulf Business. We look at some companies in the UAE that have championed a circular economy, while promoting sustainability and conscious consumerism. World Environment Day: Scaling a circular economy

UK 

• June 6, 2022. By Jack Watling, RUSI. The UK is right to arm Ukraine but must replenish its stocks if it is to avoid disarming itself. Rearming the British Army
• June 6, 2022. By  Elizabeth Piper, Reuters. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced a confidence vote on Monday after a growing number of lawmakers in his Conservative Party questioned the British leader’s authority over what has been dubbed the “partygate” scandal. Angry UK lawmakers trigger confidence vote in Boris Johnson

USA

• June 6, 2022. By Matt McConnell, HRW. Unless Congress acts soon, federal subsidies that help millions of people in the United States afford private health insurance purchased through a government-operated marketplace will expire at the end of this year. Congressional leadership should heed their colleagues’ alarms and use the budget reconciliation process to extend these subsidies before it’s too late. Expiring Assistance Threatens Affordable Health Care in the US
• June 6, 2022. By Todd South, Defense News. Special operations communicators receive so much information that they’re beginning to experience what one expert calls “alert fatigue,” putting them in danger of making fatal mistakes. Fewer devices, more automation and a better interface would help fight ‘alert fatigue’

USA – Bosnia Herzegovina

• June 6, 2022. By Reuters. U.S. imposes sanctions on Bosnia and Herzegovina federation’s president -Treasury

USA – South Korea

• June 6, 2022. By Naval News. The U.S. Navy and Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) concluded Carrier Strike Group Exercise 2022 in the Philippine Sea, June 4. US Navy, ROKN Conclude Carrier Strike Group Exercise