GEOPOLITICS & WORLDS
Normandia process e gli obiettivi di Russia e Ucraina. Vladimir Socor per The Jamestown Foundation: On January 26, in Paris, senior political advisors to the Russian, Ukrainian, German and French heads of state and government convened to “reanimate” (such is the term in circulation) the quadrilateral “Normandy” process of consultations. Moscow, Kyiv Differ Over Goals in Relaunching Normandy Process (Part One) – Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov is content with the resumption of the quadrilateral (Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany) Normandy process and the direction it seems to be taking (see Part One). The outlook, according to Peskov, is “not bad at all […] they are trying to arrive at a common understanding of the text of the Minsk agreements, even though the text is clear enough to exclude differing interpretations” (TASS, January 27). Moscow, Kyiv Differ Over Goals in Relaunching Normandy Process (Part Two)
Crisi russo-ucraina. Joe Gould e Meghann Myers per Defense News: U.S. defense leaders warned Friday that President Vladimir Putin “clearly now has the ability” to have his forces invade Ukraine with “very, very little warning,” but that U.S., NATO and Ukrainian forces stand ready to respond if that happens. Tensions over a buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine have triggered warnings from the Biden administration that it would respond with stiff sanctions and by sending U.S. troops to reinforce NATO in Europe. The statements from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley seemed to signal that, despite diplomatic efforts to avert war, a conflict was now closer at hand than ever. Russia can now attack Ukraine with ‘very little warning,’ Pentagon leaders warn – Tara Copp per Defense One: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley pressed the U.S. position Friday that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis could still be solved without war breaking out, even as thousands of U.S. troops have been put on high alert and Russia has primed its own forces for invasion. “Conflict is not inevitable. There’s still time and space for diplomacy,” Austin said in a rare joint press conference at the Pentagon with Milley, President Joe Biden’s senior military advisor. ‘Stand Down,’ Milley Warns Russia – Defense One – Bryan Clark e Dan Patt per Defense One: America may be back, but its geopolitical antagonists are not putting out the welcome mat. During the last year, Chinese warplanes regularly darkened the skies over Taiwan, North Korea restarted ballistic and hypersonic missile testing, and Iran intensified drone attacks around the Middle East. The approach of “integrated deterrence” planned by Pentagon officials for their upcoming defense strategy does not seem to be resonating with its target audience. Although provocations from Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang cannot be ignored, the most immediate challenge facing U.S. leaders is the Russian army poised at Ukraine’s doorstep and threatening invasion. The Biden administration’s promised economic sanctions and military equipment are making little obvious impact, and NATO allies are reluctant to support more aggressive responses like isolating Russia from the global financial system that could lead Moscow to cut off Europe’s natural gas in the dead of winter. Russia Is Teaching a Master Class in ‘Decision-Centric’ Warfare – Jacqueline Feldscher per Defense One. The United States is demanding that Russia explain its military buildup near Ukraine at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday, senior administration officials told reporters. The meeting, which was called by the United States, will follow weeks of attempts at diplomacy aimed at easing tensions. Previous efforts have involved NATO as well as bilateral and multilateral meetings by the United States, Europe, Ukraine and Russia. US to Russia: Explain Your Military Buildup to the UN – Al Jazeera: In recent weeks, Russia has built up its military presence along its border with Ukraine. An estimated 100,000 soldiers are concentrated along the frontier, with some 20,000 reportedly stationed near the Donetsk and Luhansk “republics”. Diplomatic talks have failed to ease rising tensions. Russia opposes NATO bases near its borders and has asked for written guarantees that NATO does not expand eastwards. One of the Kremlin’s central demands is that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO – a move it considers a red line. The United States has refused to concede to this demand. Ukraine and Russia explained in maps and charts
Il possibile ruolo dell’Italia nella crisi ucraina. Francesco Bechis, Decode 39: Ongoing tensions near NATO’s Eastern border highlight the Allies’ responses, as some Italian instances have befuddled international onlookers. We asked five high-profile commentators where they thought Italy should stand on current developments. What role for Italy in the Ukrainian crisis? US experts respond
I dialoghi tra Armenia e Azerbaijan passano anche dallo Zangezur Corridor. Vasif Huseynov per The Jamestown Foundation: On January 17, the government of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian appointed a ten-member working group to handle the reconstruction of the railway tracks connecting Yeraskh (Ararat province of Armenia) and the northwestern tip of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave (Arka.am, January 17). The group will also focus on building east-west rail lines between Nakhchivan and mainland Azerbaijan, across the Meghri sub-region of the southern Armenian province of Syunik. Azerbaijanis regularly refer to that latter transit route as the “Zangezur corridor,” in reference to the historical name of the southern territories of Armenia. The news out of Yerevan came on the heels of a recent pair of Armenian-Azerbaijani summits, in Sochi (November 26—see EDM, December 1, 2021) and Brussels (December 14), where the two sides confirmed plans to proceed with the construction of the Yeraskh–Nakhchivan–Meghri–Horadiz railroad (Armradio.am, December 16, 2021). Construction of Zangezur Corridor Underway Despite Some Remaining Disagreements
La Cina e il necessario ripensamento delle politiche economiche interne ed esterne. Chen Wang, East Asia Forum: China has benefited tremendously from neoliberal globalisation and its accession to the World Trade Organization — this helped the country become the world’s second-largest economy and leverage its political power throughout the global economy. But once-conducive international and domestic environments have changed in ways that mean China’s internal and external economic policies need a rethink. Externally, US policy towards China has shifted from strategic engagement to salient trade and technological competition. And internally, economic return on China’s existing low value-added export-led paradigm is declining. Many highly speculated sectors — like real estate — are also posing systemic financial risks as evidenced by the recent Evergrande debt crisis. China is responding to these challenges by prioritising state-led domestic economic reforms to sustain growth and deploying economic diplomacy to secure a less hostile political environment to preserve global cooperation. Domestic conditions challenge China’s economic diplomacy
Potenzialità e limiti dell’alleanza sino-russa. John S. Van Oudenaren per The Jamestown Foundation: Ultimately, the partnership between Russia and China is unlikely to wane any time soon, but the potential for coordinated, proactive Sino-Russian strategic cooperation remains limited. Given their respective interests in revising the status quo in Europe and East Asia, both Moscow and Beijing might benefit from forcing Washington to confront simultaneous foreign policy crises, perhaps at a moment of domestic political crisis in the U.S. However, the current situation underscores the intense difficulty in synchronizing Chinese and Russian strategies. For Xi, the 2024-2025 window appears more promising for a major escalation against Taiwan. At that point, Xi will be midway through his third-term, the U.S. will be in the midst of a divisive presidential election, and If the DPP defeats the KMT in Taiwan’s January 2024 election, he may feel that the political route to “national reunification” is dead. By contrast, Putin may worry that Ukraine will be a much tougher nut to crack by mid-decade, and will be navigating a sensitive political period himself with presidential elections in both Russia and Ukraine slated for spring 2024. Clearly, Russia and China are stuck with one another, but whether their strategic partnership can shift from defense to offense, remains to be seen. Vladimir Putin’s Mission to Beijing
Il corridoio China-Pakistan e la situazione in Balochistan. Kiyya Baloch, Akbar Notezai, The Jamestown Foundation: Late last year, the poor conditions in Gwadar precipitated mass protests led by Rahman. In Balochistan, Rahman’s defining characteristic is that he belongs to the right-wing Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party. Although Rahman has not invoked JI’s political Islamist ideology during these protests, a fraction of ethnic Baloch nationalists fear Pakistan’s powerful military might have positioned the JI leader to diminish Baloch nationalism. Nevertheless, with regards to China, Rahman may have already played a key role. A GPA official interviewed for this piece claims that under the banner of recent protests, Islamabad has forced Beijing to accept many of its demands. They claimed, “through a legitimate and peaceful protest, Islamabad managed to send a clear-cut message to Beijing exploiting local sentiments that Pakistan can’t be held hostage like Sri Lanka or any other poor African States.”. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Hits Bottom in Balochistan
Continuano a deteriorarsi le relazioni tra Cina e Lituania su Taiwan. William Yuen Yee per The Jamestown Foundation: As China-Lithuania relations continue to deteriorate across the board from trade to diplomacy, no immediate end appears in sight for this dispute. Until then, two critical questions remain unresolved—to what lengths China is willing to go to punish Lithuania over its embrace of Taiwan, and perhaps more importantly, to what extent the European Union and United States are willing to defend it. China-Lithuania Tensions Boil Over Taiwan
Talebani afghani e pakistani e le relazioni tra i due Paesi. Farhan Zahid per The Jamestown Foundation: After its assumption of power in Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban have given a carte blanche to TTP. Despite repeated Pakistani requests, the Afghan Taliban has not taken any significant actions against TTP militants in Afghan Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The Pakistani government managed to hold talks with the TTP through the Afghan Taliban’s mediation, but this only resulted in utter failure after a month-long ceasefire ended on December 9, 2021 (theprint.in, December 10, 2021). TTP, moreover, seems quite comfortable in Afghanistan. They have cordial relations with the Afghan Taliban, whom they also provided safe havens to in Pakistani tribal areas during their times of despair after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. The assassination of Khalid Balti must, therefore, be a matter of grave concern for TTP’s high command as this shows that TTP leadership is not, in fact, fully safe in Afghanistan even after the withdrawal of U.S. forces and the takeover of Afghanistan by the Afghan Taliban. TTP, therefore, will reassess its current status in Afghanistan while the Pakistani authorities will draw alternate plans for tackling the TTP after the failure of talks in December 2021 and the resumption of terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The recent surge of terrorist activities in Pakistan is also pivotal for the future relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. Is Afghanistan Still a Safe Haven for the Pakistani Taliban? Assessing the Mysterious Assassination of Mohammad Khorasani
Il ruolo dell’ AFSPA nelle regioni “sensibili” dell’India. Sudha Ramachandran, The Jamestown Foundation. On December 4-5, 2021, an Indian Army Special Forces unit gunned down 14 civilians at Oting village in the northeastern Indian state of Nagaland. Mistaking six coal miners returning home from work for insurgents, the security forces shot them dead. Eight other civilians were killed in clashes that erupted between the forces and local villagers soon after the shooting (Times of India, December 6, 2021). The incident has ignited angry protests in Nagaland against the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which vests extraordinary powers in the armed forces deployed in areas deemed “disturbed.” This has renewed heated discussion in India, with people in India’s conflict zones and rights activists calling for AFSPA’s repeal. However, the armed forces underscore the importance of the legal cover this law provides to their functioning in India’s insurgency-wracked regions. So, what is AFSPA and why is it controversial? India’s Armed Forces Special Powers Act Comes Under Scrutiny After Nagaland Killings
Svolta regressiva nella politica dello Sri Lanka. Shyamika Jayasundara-Smits per East Asia Forum: In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic provided additional cover for a regressive turn in Sri Lankan politics. The consequences of economic and political crisis became starkly evident shortly before the year ended as the hold of the Rajapaksa family on the Sri Lankan state tightened. From early 2021, the dead came to haunt the Rajapaksa regime, as the government — against all medical and scientific advice — continued to enforce the cremation of deceased Muslims. This drew major backlash from local civil society groups, the medical community and some in the international community. When the policy was eventually changed, it was not due to any government change of heart, but more likely intended to avert harsh words at the UN Human Rights Council’s March deliberations in Geneva, when a country-specific resolution on Sri Lanka was delivered. The Rajapaksa family’s tightening grip on Sri Lanka
La partita energetica dell’Europa. James McBride, Council on Foreign Relations. The threat of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has put the United States and its European allies on high alert in part due to the potential for major disruptions to the European energy market, which remains highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. A Russian assault could trigger the cancellation of pending projects, including the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline to Germany, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to restrict energy exports. In an effort to mitigate such a crisis, the White House is spearheading efforts to redirect energy supplies to Europe, but experts say any solution will come at a painfully high cost. Russia’s Energy Role in Europe: What’s at Stake With the Ukraine Crisis
Le Direct Action Cells (DAC) in Grecia. Tom Lord, The Jamestown Foundation: The DAC are inheriting a withered but nonetheless strong tradition of anti-authoritarian militancy in Greece. An ongoing string of high-profile arrests and counter-terror operations leading to large seizures of small arms and explosive materials are indicators of the eroding landscape, which has until recently been remarkably permissible for guerrilla activity (The WannabeWonk Newsletter, August 9, 2021; ekathimerini, March 19, 2021; ekathimerini, September 13, 2020; Twitter.com/@war_noir, September 25, 2020). Nevertheless, the grievances between the government and the extra-parliamentary left in Greece are mounting. Key points of brewing conflict include the reintroduction of police to university campuses, the evictions of squatters, heavy-handed policing, and the construction of a metro station in the center of the Exarcheia neighborhood, which has long been an anti-authoritarian enclave in Athens (The WannabeWonk Newsletter, November 11, 2021; The National herald, February 19, 2021). Greece’s enduring vulnerability to another exogenous shock, such as it experienced in 2009 when global financial markets tumbled into chaos, opens it up to another period of possible mass-mobilization on the streets. When normal life in Greece is again upended, there will be no shortage of militant and organized discontent. Having thus far suffered no losses to arrests or otherwise, the DAC is positioned to remain at the forefront of these militants. Direct Action Cells: Greece’s Fourth Generation of Post-Junta Urban Guerrillas
La US national security vista da tre ex consiglieri per la sicurezza nazionale. Council on Foreign Relations. U.S. national security advisors from the last three administrations reflect on their experiences and assess some of the principal challenges facing the United States today. U.S. National Security as Seen by Three Former National Security Advisors
USA, il Pentagono e le emissioni di gas serra. Jacqueline Feldscher per Defense One. More than two dozen lawmakers sent a letter to the president on Friday urging him not to exempt the Defense Department from an executive order signed last month that’s intended to cut greenhouse emissions and ease the climate crisis. The order, which President Joe Biden signed Dec. 8, allows agencies to seek exemptions from requirements in cases where pursuing the goals set by the administration would hurt national security. The Pentagon has said that it does not intend to request any exemptions and is committed to reducing emissions. Lawmakers Ask Biden To Make Sure DOD Follows Climate Rules
Gli USA hanno annunciato la cancellazione di aiuti militari per l’Egitto per 130 milioni di dollari. Al Jazeera: The Biden administration has announced that it is cancelling $130m in military aid to Egypt over human rights concerns, just days after the United States approved a massive $2.5bn arms sale to the country. The State Department said on Friday that Egypt had not met the conditions to receive the $130m in foreign military financing that has been on hold since September. It said the money would be shifted to other programmes but did not elaborate. US cancels $130m military aid for Egypt over rights concerns
Gli USA e i ribelli Houthi nello Yemen. Ali Harb per Al Jazeera: When the Biden administration revoked the “terrorist” group label from Yemen’s Houthi rebels last February, it cited the potentially “devastating” effects that the designation would have on Yemeni civilians’ access to life-saving humanitarian aid. But less than a year later, President Joe Biden has said re-designating the group is “under consideration“, a move advocates and rights groups say is not only disappointing but dangerous. Rights groups warn Biden against re-blacklisting Yemen’s Houthis
Gli USA intendono reindirizzare 67 milioni di aiuti militari alle forze armate libanesi. Al Jazeera: The United States plans to reroute $67m of military assistance for Lebanon’s armed forces to support members of the military as the country grapples with a debilitating financial crisis. According to a notification sent to Congress, the State Department intends to change the content of previously appropriated foreign military funding for Lebanon to include “livelihood support” for members of the Lebanese military, citing economic turmoil as well as social unrest. US plans to reroute $67m in aid towards Lebanon’s armed forces
Crescendo di conflitti. L’attenzione strategica della NATO e degli USA. Sebastian Sprenger e Joe Gould per Defense News: As roughly 100,000 Russian troops amass around Ukraine, a series of emerging crises around the world — the Middle East, China, North Korea — are demanding the full attention of NATO, and particularly its most powerful member, the United States. Now, there’s a growing sense among national security experts that the crisis in Ukraine is just one of many conflicts on the precipice, putting pressure on the alliance and its member countries to address this threat and at the same time brace for the next one. US military readies to ‘walk and chew gum’ as multiple crises loom
IN-DEFENSE
USA. Courtney Albon, Defense News. The Pentagon is launching a new Open Stack 5G Challenge next month to incentivize industry to develop open-architecture technologies that could be integrated into future testbeds. The U.S. Department of Defense is partnering with the National Telecommunications and Information Administration on the initiative and issued a notice of inquiry earlier this month asking for concepts to accelerate development of an “open 5G stack ecosystem.”. New 5G challenge to incentivize open architecture solutions
USA. Megan Eckstein per Defense News. The U.S. Navy is unlikely to pursue a formal program for unmanned surface vessels in the next five years, instead focusing on the enabling technologies first, several leaders said this month. The Navy in fiscal 2020 laid out an aggressive plan to buy a handful of prototype medium and large USVs and then quickly transition into a program of record using shipbuilding funds. The service acknowledged it would adjust the program-of-record USV design over time to incorporate lessons learned as prototypes hit the water. – US Navy adopts new strategy prioritizing ‘the building blocks’ of unmanned tech
USA. Gen. Kevin Chilton (ret.) per Defense News: U.S. national security interests are inextricably linked with actions that occur in space. Our air, land and sea forces rely on critical capabilities delivered by systems on orbit. Our adversaries know this, and it is why they are fielding weapons capable of destroying U.S. satellites that deliver intelligence, navigation, missile warning and global communications to our forces. Failure to address these threats would be catastrophic to our soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines in a conflict, let alone the outcome of a war. It is long past time to recognize this reality and start treating the space domain like we do every other warfighting domain. Empower our Space Force, just as we do for the other armed services
USA. Mark Pomerleau per Defense News: Key components of the U.S. Army’s modernized tactical network approach received poor marks from the Pentagon’s weapon tester in its annual report, alleging the service must overcome several challenges to demonstrate operational effectiveness, suitability and survivability. The fiscal 2021 annual report, released by the Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, identified issues with the way the Army tested its integrated tactical network before fielding it to units in FY21. US Army’s tactical network must overcome several challenges, says Pentagon weapons tester
USA. Mark Pomerleau per Defense News: The Pentagon should refocus cybersecurity efforts on human defenders instead of primarily relying on new technologies to protect networks, the department’s weapon tester asserted in its annual report. Automated tools are sometimes necessary to thwart cyberthreats that attack networks at so-called machine speed. But the dynamic nature of these threats requires a combined approach using humans and machines together. DoD must focus on skilled cyber defenders, not just new tech, warns weapons tester
Philippines-India. Mike Yeo per Defense News: The Philippines has signed a contract with an Indian company for shore-based medium-range supersonic anti-ship missiles, enhancing the U.S. ally’s ability to target adversarial ships from land. Philippine National Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and the head of BrahMos Aerospace, Atul Dinkar Rane, signed the 18.9 billion peso (U.S. $368 million) deal Friday for three batteries of Brahmos anti-ship missiles in a virtual ceremony. Philippines signs deal for BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missile
CYBER SECURITY – DIGITAL TRANSITION – TECHNOLOGY
USA. Lauren C. Williams per Nextgov: The Defense Information Systems Agency is now one step closer to implementing a comprehensive zero trust architecture thanks to a $6.8 million award for a prototype. The defense IT agency has been crafting requirements for its foray into zero trust, called Thunderdome, and awarded Booz Allen Hamilton the contract to prototype the architecture, according to a Jan. 25 news release. The Thunderdome prototype is expected to be developed over the next six months, according to the announcement, and will focus on operational testing for implementing the agency’s zero trust reference architecture. From there, the agency expects to develop an implementation strategy that feeds into and helps transition DOD await from the Joint Regional Security Stacks program. DISA Awards Thunderdome Zero Trust Prototype
USA. Alexandra Kelley per Nextgov: Democratic lawmakers Sen. Cory Booker, D-NJ, and Rep. Anna Eshoo, D-Calif., penned a letter to the Federal Trade Commission requesting that the agency place limitations on surveillance advertising across digital platforms. Surveillance advertising is the practice of using users’ personal data, sometimes called ‘cookies,’ to inform what advertisements are deployed to unique users. Using these targeted techniques has become a staple in online advertising, with paid advertisements offering a source of revenue to hosting websites. Democratic Lawmakers Call for Ban of Surveillance Advertising
USA. Patience Wait per Nextgov. The frequency and magnitude of natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires and floods has been growing for a number of years. Panelists for the Advanced Technology Academic Research Center’s Jan. 26 webinar “Leveraging Predictive Analytics to Address Climate Change Issues” discussed how the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning can provide both short- and long-term guidance for decisionmakers considering how to ameliorate impacts. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2021 there were 20 weather and climate disaster events that incurred losses of more than $1 billion each. From 1980 to 2021, the annual average was 7.4 events (adjusted for inflation), but from 2017 to 2021, the most recent five years, the average number of events was 17.2 (adjusted for inflation). Using AI, ML Will Help the Government Tackle Climate Change, Experts Say
USA. Brandi Vincent per Nextgov. Rigetti Computing and the Universities Space Research Association or USRA on Thursday confirmed they’re kicking off the second phase of a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency-led effort to develop next-level, quantum computers. Building on the first phase of the Optimization with Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum devices program, which launched in 2020, the entities are now pushing DARPA’s ONISQ further—with ultimate aims to demonstrate quantum advantage on intermediate scale quantum computers with hundreds of qubits. Demonstrating quantum advantage would mean proving that a quantum computer is capable of solving a problem that would essentially take forever, or an unfeasible amount of time on a classical computer. DARPA Enters Phase 2 of Project Targeting ‘Quantum Advantage’
USA-China. The Federal Communications Commission has revoked China Unicom Americas’ permit to provide telecommunications services under authority that still leaves room for the company to access Americans’ data. “We direct China Unicom Americas to discontinue any domestic or international services that it provides pursuant to its Section 214 authority,” FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel said after a 4-0 vote during a meeting of the commission Thursday. The company has 60 days to discontinue such services, according to the order. FCC Blocks US Access for Another Chinese Telecom Company
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