GEOPOLITICS & WORLDS
Sulla crisi russo-ucraina (e dintorni). George Pearkes, Atlantic Council: The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces appears increasingly likely. Over one hundred thousand Russian troops are massed at the border of neighboring Ukraine, there are allegations of cyber attacks and false flag operations, and reports Russia is withdrawing diplomatic staff. America has responded by threatening Russia with an unconventional weapon: the dollar. However, deploying the dollar may actually undermine its power, and hasten its departure from the US arsenal. Ukraine and Dollar Weaponization – Richard Arnold, The Jamestown Foundation: Amidst the Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine and speculation about whether the Kremlin will, indeed, again invade (see EDM, January 18, 20, 27), the analytical discussion has focused less on what pretext(s) for war Moscow might put forward to “legitimate” any such invasion. However, one such candidate has recently come from the mouthpiece of the Dikoe Pole (“Wild Field”) Cossack Army in occupied eastern Ukraine. Dikoe Pole Cossacks in Occupied Luhansk: Russian Aides de Guerre? – Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One: Russia issued a scathing public rebuke of America on Monday, saying the United States is “whipping up tensions” based on “unfounded accusations” that Moscow is preparing to launch a military strike on Ukraine. The meeting at the United Nations Security Council did nothing to turn down the temperature as the threat of conflict looms in eastern Europe, and underscored the chasm between the American and Russian perspectives. US, Russia Spar Over Ukraine At Confrontational U.N. Meeting – Defense One
In Bielorussia. Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation: On January 28, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka delivered his state of the country address to the Belarusian parliament (YouTube, January 28). This is an annual event, though, in 2021, he skipped it altogether. This last speech lasted 2 hours and 36 minutes; in addition, Lukashenka spent an hour responding to questions. Each theme of the address was accompanied by a tagline on the screen behind the speaker: for example, “The Escapees’ Program,” about the members of the opposition who fled Belarus in the wake of the August–September 2020 crackdown on post-election protests; or “Defense and Consolidation,” when the topic of Lukashenka’s remarks turned to propping up socio-political unity. Indeed, a demonstration of unity was the overarching goal of the address and its refrain. In such a way, Lukashenka’s speech not only marginalized the aforementioned escapees but all those who participated in the protests. The Belarusian leader called upon the impelled emigrants to return home and beg for forgiveness because their fate in the West, ostensibly already unenviable, is bound to worsen, he asserted. In a semi-serious fashion, he declared a special commission could be organized to accept those returnees, who would only be required to pay some fines because compensating the state in full for what they had done is beyond their means. Lukashenka’s State of the Country Address: No Contrition and No Exit
Africa, come affrontare la malaria. Olusoji Adeyi, Brookings: Twelve decades after Ronald Ross won the Nobel Prize for his foundational work on understanding malaria transmission, the World Health Organization recently recommended widespread use of the new RTS,S malaria vaccine among children in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions with moderate to high transmission of P. falciparum, a deadly form of the malaria parasite. RTS,S achieves up to 40 percent reduction in malaria episodes—an important feat in absolute terms because more than 260,000 African children under the age of five die from malaria annually. Paying for the malaria vaccine: Will Africa take responsibility? (brookings.edu)
USA, le difficoltà di Biden e dei Democratici. William A. Galston, Brookings: As President Biden begins his second year in office and the battle for control of Congress in 2022 heats up, Democrats find themselves in a deep hole. Early in Biden’s administration, 55% of Americans approved of his performance; today, his job approval has fallen to 42%. Polls conducted during the past three weeks show Democrats trailing Republicans by an average of 4 percentage points in the aggregate vote for the House of Representatives. Can President Biden and the Democrats get out of the hole?
Rafforzamento della partnership tra Doha e Washington. Al Jazeera: The United States is planning to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally, President Joe Biden has told Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a move that would formally upgrade the partnership between Doha and Washington. During a meeting with Sheikh Tamim at the White House on Monday, Biden called Qatar a “good friend and reliable partner”. US will designate Qatar as major non-NATO ally, Biden tells emir
Stato delle relazioni transatlantiche. Brookings: Welcome to the fourteenth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE). To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations with Europe — overall and in the political, security, and economic dimensions — as well as on the state of U.S. relations with five key countries and the European Union itself. We also ask about several major issues in the news. The poll for this edition of the survey was conducted from January 11 to January 14, 2022. The experts’ analyses are complemented by a timeline of significant moments over the previous three calendar months and a snapshot of the relationship, including figures presenting data relevant to the relationship and CUSE Director Thomas Wright’s take on what to watch in the coming months. Trans-Atlantic Scorecard — January 2022
UK e CPTPP. John Harley Breen, East Asia Forum: The United Kingdom is in discussions to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), with UK trade officials stating that rapid progress on talks could see London acceding to the 11-member trade bloc in 2022. Prospects for the United Kingdom’s CPTPP accession
Guardare all’Artico. Jeremy Greenwood, Brookings: As tensions continue to mount along the Ukraine border and the threat of invasion by Russian forces (or Russian-backed proxy forces) perhaps imminent, many commentators have looked at the potential consequences for the Arctic. There has been a long-standing call for revitalizing old forums or creating new ones for the discussion of military security matters in the Arctic. Lessons from Ukraine for the Arctic: Russian “dialogue” isn’t always what it seems – Mir Sadat, Atlantic Council: The melting Arctic is opening a new front in strategic competition, raising US security concerns in the once-uncontested frontier in a way that echoes the mid-twentieth century Space Race. But unlike the Soviet Union’s Sputnik surprise, which jolted US politics and society, there has been no moment shocking enough to awaken Americans to the threats in, from, and over the Arctic region. The US is unprepared to face the challenge in the Arctic. Here’s what it should do. – John C. K. Daly, The Jamestown Foundation: The Russian Ministry of Defense reportedly plans to create a new naval formation, an Arctic Fleet, to ensure the safety of Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Arctic littoral region as a whole (TASS, October 7, 2021). According to experts, the creation of this separate Arctic naval unit will free up the Northern and Pacific fleets to focus on purely combat missions. The Arctic Fleet will deal only with the NSR and report directly to the Ministry of Defense (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, October 8, 2021). That said, the proposed Arctic Fleet could also provide invaluable naval backup in the event that Russia’s Northern Fleet is crippled in military action. As the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences’ (RARAN) Deputy President Konstantin Sivkov noted last May, the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command (USC), which is currently responsible for the security of the Russian Arctic, would likely be destroyed in a potential conflict with the United States Navy (Lenta, May 21, 2021). Russia Considers Developing a New Fleet in the Arctic
Taiwan e l’eccezione economica. Min-Hua Chiang, East Asia Forum: Taiwan’s economy has outshined most others in the last two years. While the COVID-19 recession was hard most everywhere else, Taiwan’s economy enjoyed a moderate expansion of 3.1 per cent in 2020 and likely expanded by 6.1 per cent in 2021 — the highest growth recorded since the global financial crisis rebound 12 years ago. Taiwan’s economic expansion is an outlier amid the pandemic. Taiwan’s economy outperforms amid COVID-19 crisis
Un quadro economico sulla Cina. Atlantic Council, GeoEconomics Center, and Rhodium Group: China moved farther from market economy norms in the fourth quarter of 2021. The real estate sector continued to dominate the headlines as Evergrande, the country’s largest property developer, finally defaulted, along with peers Kaisa, Sinic Holdings, Fantasia, and Modern Land. Meanwhile, the government’s regulatory crackdown intensified, culminating in ride-hailing giant Didi’s forced delisting from the New York Stock Exchange. The move may herald a broader unwinding of foreign listings, particularly for data-heavy Chinese companies. While VC flows to China’s tech startups showed a recovery from a low in 2020, the main targets for this investment were hardware technology sectors favored by Beijing. With expectations for a slowdown in 2022 mounting, China’s leaders dropped their fiscal restraint and promised new stimulus at their year-end Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). China Pathfinder: Q4 2021 Update
In Myanmar. Al Jazeera: February 1 marks a year since the military seized control of Myanmar. The generals made their move on the day the new parliament – elected the previous November – was due to sit for the first time and all the politicians had congregated in the capital Naypyidaw. Myanmar coup: A year of protest, reprisals and diplomatic inertia – Tun Khin, Al Jazeera: Exactly one year ago, on February 1, the Myanmar military launched a coup and opened another bloody chapter in my country’s history. Since then, the junta has driven the state to the brink of collapse and committed widespread atrocities. There is now only one way to break this cycle of abuse: pursuing mechanisms of international justice that can hold those responsible to account. Justice is the only answer to Myanmar’s bloody military reign | Opinions | Al Jazeera – Ali MC, Al Jazeera: One year since the military coup in Myanmar, calls for international action are growing louder, notably from the National Unity Government (NUG), made up of elected politicians who were thrown out of office by the generals. “The world is doing nothing but just sitting and watching,” NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung told Al Jazeera. World accused of ‘sitting and watching’ as Myanmar slides to war
CYBER SECURITY – DIGITAL TRASITION – TECHNOLOGY
Trasformazione tecnologica, educazione, sovranità dello Stato. David Lundie, Andrej Zwitter, Dipayan Ghosh, Brookings: It should strike most as a worrying trend that many portions of developed economies are increasingly becoming cannibalized by the technology sector; in particular, the concern may be that as many technology firms further pursue aggressive capitalization into new areas of economic potential unlocked by ongoing advancements in the technological base underlying the global economy (e.g., with ever-increasing capacities in data storage, computing, and connectivity), there emerges a corresponding economic imperative to absorb talented individuals into the firm itself and train them with the technical tools the firm believes are necessary for individuals to succeed at the firm and thus society—and necessary for the firm itself to compete in free market circumstances. Corporatized education and State sovereignty
Rischio Russia. Justin Sherman, Atlantic Council: As the world watches the Kremlin’s military build-up along the Ukrainian border, the Irish military is worried about Russian naval activity in its own backyard. That’s where Russian exercises are set to take place dangerously close to strategic undersea communications cables that represent an overlooked element of a potential Russian escalation: an effort to blind the world to events unfolding in Ukraine. Cord-cutting, Russian style: Could the Kremlin sever global internet cables?
USA, tecnologie per l’intelligence. Nathan Strout, Defense News: The intelligence community now has a tool that allows English-speaking users to search through foreign language text and speech for information. The new tool was developed by Raytheon BBN Technologies in partnership with the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity — an organization within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence that develops technologies to solve some of the intelligence community’s hardest problems. Here’s how intelligence agencies can search foreign documents without learning the language
IN-DEFENSE
USA. Stephen Losey, Defense News: The F-15EX Eagle II — the latest version of the Air Force’s fourth-generation fighter — fired a weapon for the first time last week. The fighter, part of the 40th Flight Test Squadron and flown by experimental test pilots Maj. Benjamin Naumann and Maj. Mark Smith, on Jan. 25 successfully fired an AIM-120D missile at a BQM-167 target drone over the Gulf of Mexico, the Air Force said in a release Monday. Eagle II gets its claws: F-15EX fires first missile in Gulf of Mexico test (defensenews.com) – Gil Barndollar and Sascha Glaeser, Defense News: As war in Ukraine looms, land warfare is suddenly front and center again in discussions of U.S. national security. But whatever happens in Ukraine, America’s strategic imperative is at sea. A look at the U.S. Navy — or at a map — makes clear the United States must keep its focus squarely on maritime competition and conflict. The United States must put the Navy first – Stephen Losey, Defense News: The U.S. Defense Department has finished fielding the first batch of new logistics systems for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, replacing an older, flawed system that has caused program headaches for years. In a release Monday, the F-35 Joint Program Office said the first 14 sets of the new Operational Data Integrated Network, or ODIN, logistics information system finished their rollout to F-35 squadrons in January. Pentagon completes first phase in replacing troubled F-35 logistics system – Mike Yeo e Geoff Ziezulewics, Defense News: The U.S. Navy has largely kept mum about how it will raise the wreckage of a high-tech F-35C Lightning II jet that crashed onto an aircraft carrier and fell into the South China Sea last week, but a maritime navigation alert released by the Japanese government suggests where the salvage operation may take place. On Saturday, the Japanese Coast Guard issued a navigation warning indicating that a salvage operation was going on in a northern portion of the South China Sea, roughly 185 miles west of the Philippines and 350 miles east of Woody Island in the Paracels, a group of man-made islands on which Beijing has built an airbase and other military infrastructure. Navy prepares F-35C recovery op in South China Sea as Japan issues salvage notice (defensenews.com) – Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One: Lockheed Martin and Airbus will build military tankers in Alabama and Georgia if the U.S. Air Force choses its aircraft over one proposed by rival Boeing, the companies announced Monday. Executives and politicians are scheduled to announce the decision during ceremonies in Mobile, Alabama, where Airbus currently builds commercial jetliners, and Marietta, Georgia, later today. Lockheed, Airbus Say They Would Build New Air Force Tankers in Alabama, Georgia – Defense One
Irlanda/Russia. Elisabeth Braw, Defense One: For months—years, in fact—the learned men and women in the corridors of Western powers have been putting their heads together to stop Russia from acting provocatively. Think-tankers such as me have written endless op-eds, reports, and books for the same purpose. We have, alas, been depressingly unsuccessful. A few days ago, another group altogether showed how it’s done. When Russia announced its intention to conduct a naval exercise off the coast of Ireland, Irish fishermen came up with a deterrent so surprising and so powerful that the Russian navy moved the exercise. We should learn from them. How Irish Fishermen Took on the Russian Fleet and Won
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