On October 18, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced that all of its obligations under the 10-year-old Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—the Iran deal—have expired. This declaration formally ends all international oversight of Iran’s nuclear program. Since the June attacks on Iran’s nuclear program by the United States and Israel, Iran has pushed its nuclear program into a new era. Iran’s program is increasingly defined by strategic opacity, operational chaos, and a likely internal culture of fear. New satellite imagery points to emerging risks from Iran’s nuclear program despite the damage from the U.S. and Israeli strikes.Days before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Iran was constructing a third enrichment site near Isfahan. There is an underground tunnel just to the north of Isfahan, which is likely the site of the new enrichment facility. Compounding these concerns, on June 24, U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggested that Iran likely still has possession of its existing stockpile of 400 kilograms (kg) of highly enriched uranium (HEU) enriched to 60 percent. Future Iranian efforts to build a nuclear weapon would likely require a new enrichment site capable of producing 90 percent enriched uranium, expanded centrifuge-assembly capacity, and metallurgy facilities to produce uranium hexafluoride (UF₆) for enrichment.
CSIS Satellite Imagery Analysis Reveals Possible Signs of Renewed Nuclear Activity in Iran
