Ceasefire in Syria: a challenging outlook

(Ellen Clarke, Emile Hokayem – IISS) In just over a month, the military and political balance of power in Syria has shifted decisively in favour of the new authorities in Damascus, as they begin the delicate implementation of the 30 January 2026 deal that will end Kurdish control of northeast Syria. This stunning development was the result of the main Kurdish force’s miscalculations, Damascus’s ruthless opportunism, and shifting American policy amid regional support for centralised governance. The government’s approach to consolidation will now be put to the test: can it deploy sufficient resources and political acumen to convince distrustful constituencies, or will it rely primarily on coercion? – Ceasefire in Syria: a challenging outlook