Two stories involving Belarus that have been unfolding over the past few weeks appear to contradict each other on the surface. These are the growing economic dependency of Belarus on Russia on the one hand, and the ongoing trade wars between both countries on the other hand. But taken together, they illuminate something much deeper about its present political-economic situation.
According to Pavel Matsukevich, a senior expert at the Center for New Ideas (an improvised think tank of a group of recently exiled Belarusian analysts), after August–September 2020, Minsk turned away from the policy of situational neutrality it had pursued at least since 2014. That policy had contributed to gradually improving Belarus’s international image. But, Matsukevich argues, the Belarusian authorities no longer position Belarus as a territory where the interests of the West and the East converge. The invented new role for Belarus is that of an outpost of Eurasianism on the border of civilizations—the first area to absorb the blow of the insidious West (New Belarus, October 22).
Belarusian-Russian Economic Dependency and Trade Wars: Is There a Contradiction? – Jamestown
