The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report, Trade and Development Report 2026: The geoeconomics of development, projects global economic growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025. Growth in developing economies is expected to fall from 4.7% to 4%, as technological barriers, geopolitical tensions and uneven investment increasingly shape countries’ access to global markets.
The report identifies AI as a major driver of global trade but warns that its economic gains remain concentrated. In a case study of an advanced AI server rack, post-tax profits accounted for 68% of traced value added, while workers received less than 15%. Meanwhile, developed economies attracted around 70% of the value of announced greenfield investments in strategic sectors, including semiconductors, energy-transition technologies and AI infrastructure, between 2020 and 2025.
by Digital Watch Observatory – UNCTAD warns of widening gaps amid technology barriers
