In partnership with
China
(Samantha Hoffman – The Jamestown Foundation) Draft revisions to the National Defense Mobilization Law seek to ensure that civilian enterprises and capabilities, such as artificial intelligence developers and cybersecurity firms, efficiently support national mobilization. They also call for the development of more advanced data services. The revisions are intended to make the system stronger and more operationally coherent, in part by taking advantage of technological developments from the past 15 years since the law’s passage
The proposed update would also reinforce the Party’s ability to manage supply chains and ensure that the needs of the mobilization system are met. This would occur through mandating supply chain security assessments, as well as through the standardization of data collection, processing, and exchange across civilian and military systems so that civilian technological capacity can be rapidly converted into military capability. – Draft Law Would Exploit Tech for National Mobilization – Jamestown
China – US – Strait of Hormuz
(David M. Hart – Council on Foreign Relations) Earlier this year, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a perverse optimism in some quarters of the climate movement. The movement’s archenemy, U.S. President Donald Trump, had, in one fell swoop, accomplished its dream of raising the price of oil. Yet, the most surprising outcome of the Strait of Hormuz crisis to date is that the price has not risen nearly as much as many analysts expected. The biggest reason is that China cut its fossil fuel imports massively in the months since the closure. But that answer begs another question: Why would China, the global champion of clean energy technology, do that? Why wouldn’t it maximize the pain felt by fossil fuel consumers worldwide, thereby boosting the sales of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles—the “new three” export industries that President Xi Jinping has lauded—even if it had to pay more for its own imports in the short run? Many political analysts have proposed answers to those questions. China values stability generally. China wants to be seen as the adult in the room in global politics. China might want to do the Trump administration a favor in the hope of a reciprocal benefit in the future. China might even prefer continued Republican control of the U.S. government. – Evolution, Not Revolution: Why China Isn’t Pushing Its Cleantech Advantage in the Hormuz Crisis | Council on Foreign Relations
Nicaragua – US
(Juan Sebastian Chamorro e Maria Fernanda Bozmoski – Atlantic Council) Daniel Ortega’s move to abolish elections marks a new stage of authoritarian rule and challenges the US to respond beyond rhetoric. The Trump administration should apply targeted economic and diplomatic pressure while avoiding measures that would disproportionately harm ordinary Nicaraguans. Instead of outright military intervention, the US should help to organize a regional coalition to support democratic forces and counter repression. – How the US should respond to Ortega declaring no more elections in Nicaragua – Atlantic Council
Russia – Tajikistan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) More than 800,000 Tajiks have acquired Russian citizenship over the last decade. Most have taken advantage of the right to dual citizenship that a 1995 accord uniquely allows among the countries of the former Soviet space. This arrangement has limited Moscow’s ability to restrict unpopular immigration and is even changing the country’s ethnic mix. Dual citizenship simultaneously poses a challenge to Tajikistan’s independence from Moscow’s control. Some in both countries now want that arrangement canceled. The Kremlin remains largely opposed, since abrogation would represent a retreat from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to maintain Russian influence in Central Asia and his drive to reintegrate the former Soviet space. – Nearly a Million Tajiks Have Taken Russian Citizenship Affecting Both Countries – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov’s admission that Russia’s “special military operation” (SVO) has become a “real war” marks a departure from years of official rhetoric and may signal that Moscow is preparing to escalate rather than negotiate. Reports that the Kremlin has resolved to intensify the war, expected mobilization after the September Duma elections, Peskov’s remarks, and a draft law requiring exit visas to prevent draft-age men from leaving Russia point toward this potential escalation. Should escalation proceed, Russia’s capacity to sustain it rests partly on an expanding Cossack mobilization network that is forming drone units, conducting reserve exercises, and building a reserve force expected to reach 60,000. – Kremlin Rhetoric Hints at Escalation – Jamestown
Türkiye – China
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) Türkiye and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are working to improve transportation logistics and infrastructure to advance trans-Eurasian trade and connectivity through the Middle Corridor and the One Belt, One Road initiative. Türkiye’s Pasifik ISR and the PRC’s Guangzhou Communications Investment International Train Operation Management Co. Ltd. signed a railway cooperation agreement on June 10. This is another step for improving multimodal transport infrastructure and reducing transportation costs between the East and West. Security crises in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s war against Ukraine have highlighted the vulnerabilities of maritime and northern trade routes. Overland transit channels that diversify risk and shorten delivery times via the Middle Corridor have become an alternative for Eurasia. – Türkiye–PRC Railway Partnership Bolsters Middle Corridor – Jamestown
US
(Vinh Nguyen, Elham Tabassi, Kat Duffy – Council on Foreign Relations) Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis published a framework on July 14 calling for a U.S.-led Frontier AI Standards Body. In it, he proposes that it be modeled after the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the industry-funded, self-regulatory organization that oversees the brokerage industry under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supervision. Three days after Hassabis published his piece, Bloomberg reported that the White House is reviewing a proposal—developed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s involvement—based on this FINRA template. The good news is that the choice of institutional form was never the hard part: a FINRA-inspired body that reports to the SEC could be a reasonable answer to a real coordination problem. Under Google’s proposal, frontier AI companies would submit their models for review up to thirty days before release. Over that period, those systems would be tested for dangerous cyber, biological, and deceptive capabilities. The companies’ participation in this oversight process would begin voluntarily, then become a condition of U.S. deployment once the process has proven itself. But that still leaves much undefined, such as how this body would be financed, whether its access to frontier systems is guaranteed or left to a lab’s discretion, and how its findings might need to be classified. The design choices made to address these problems could decide whether this new body becomes an institution that regulators and the public trust for decades, or one that will need to be rebuilt after its first crisis of confidence. – The U.S. Is About to Design an AI Regulator. Here’s How to Get It Right. | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Saudi Arabia
(Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) U.S. and Saudi officials signed a deal this week that would permit Saudi Arabia to build nuclear power plants on its soil using U.S. technology. The reported terms involve looser conditions on nuclear proliferation compared to other U.S. nuclear technology deals, including a 2009 deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though the Trump administration says the Saudi program would face rigorous inspections. But just one day after its signing by the U.S. energy secretary, President Donald Trump conditioned approval of the deal on Saudi Arabia signing the Abraham Accords, which are U.S.-brokered agreements begun under the first Trump administration that have normalized relations between Israel and Arab nations. The announcement of the deal drew strong opposition in Israel, where officials have expressed worry of a Saudi deal spurring other countries to seek nuclear enrichment programs and a path to nuclear weapons. The fate of the deal is now unclear. – The U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Set Off Tremors. Is It Still Alive? | Council on Foreign Relations
(William F. Wechsler – Atlantic Council) The US is shifting from traditional nuclear nonproliferation efforts (“Plan A” and “Plan B”) to a new “Plan C” centered on deeper nuclear cooperation with regional allies. A new US–Saudi nuclear agreement exemplifies “Plan C” by potentially allowing Saudi domestic uranium enrichment while expanding US commercial involvement. This new plan may be the most practical path forward, given that the ongoing conflict with Iran has increased concerns about regional nuclear proliferation. – With a Saudi deal, the US begins ‘Plan C’ for nonproliferation in the Middle East – Atlantic Council
(The Soufan Center) As tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran, the Trump administration has sought to raise the stakes, announcing a new nuclear agreement with longtime Iranian rival, Saudi Arabia. The potential for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium in the near future raises concerns about who follows — whether other U.S. partners will demand the same terms, whether Russia and China will match them with partners of their own, or whether it will ignite a nuclear power race in the region. Adding to tensions in the region, the Iranian proxy group out of Yemen, the Houthis, declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers transiting through the Red Sea. The Trump administration most likely chose to announce the Saudi nuclear deal now because it recognizes the critical juncture this months-long conflict with Iran has reached, and Tehran has seemingly made a similar assessment of the moment by activating the Houthis. – Deal or No Deal? Saudi Nuclear Pact Hangs in Balance as Regional Conflict Expands – The Soufan Center
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(The Soufan Center) Lebanon has become a central arena in the battle between the competing regional visions of the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, making the first visit to Washington by a Lebanese President in 17 years, sought President Trump’s help to both disarm Hezbollah and force an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon. Coinciding with Aoun’s visit, U.S. officials announced the start of a pilot program under which the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will gradually take over positions in the south that were captured from Hezbollah and then vacated by Israel. Through diplomacy and regional operations, Iran is helping its chief ally, Lebanese Hezbollah, resist pressure from the U.S., Israel, and Lebanon to dismantle its militia wing. – Lebanon at the Fulcrum of the U.S.-Iran War – The Soufan Center
Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
(Council on Foreign Relations) Public sentiment is something decision-makers must contend with, especially in democratic states. However, the extent to which public opinion shapes foreign policy varies. Three Council of Councils experts in France, India, and Nigeria reflect on how public opinion does—and sometimes does not—affect foreign policy decisions. – The Nuanced Relationship Between Public Opinion and Foreign Policy | Council on Foreign Relations
