Sources: Atlantic Council; Chatham House; Council on Foreign Relations; IFRI; Jamestown Foundation; Observer Research Foundation; RUSI; Soufan Center; UN News; Washington Institute
Australia – China
(Samantha Hoffman, Blake Johnson – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) recently launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from a strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN) into the Pacific, leading to backlash in the region. The missile was Beijing’s first publicly acknowledged submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, and the second ballistic missile test into the Pacific in under two years. The test coincided with the signing of a defense treaty between Australia and Fiji, the latest of an expanding set of defense agreements Australia has signed with Vanuatu, Nauru, Tuvalu, and Papua New Guinea. Pacific Island states, who are especially sensitive about nuclear tests, have criticized the PRC’s actions, with the prime minister of the Solomon Islands saying that “this is not something a friend does.” – Australia’s Defense Diplomacy Amid PLA Missile Test – Jamestown
China
(Sari Arho Havrén – RUSI) For decades, Western planning towards China has been organised around a single dramatic contingency: a cross-Strait invasion, a formal blockade, or an explicit act of war that would trigger an equally explicit response. That contingency still matters, and nothing here argues for complacency about it. But it is increasingly the wrong place to focus all our attention. Beijing has found something more economical which, with deniability, supports its narratives of being a stable and peaceful superpower. Below the threshold of explicit war, it can alter strategic realities incrementally: ship by ship, licence by licence, narrative by narrative, without ever crossing the threshold that would justify a decisive reaction. An asymmetric inching strategy that never declares itself as war can nonetheless deliver much of what a war is fought to achieve: eroded sovereignty, dependent adversaries, fractured coalitions and a slow redrawing of who decides what, in contested policy areas and even geographical spaces. China’s most consequential foreign-policy innovation is the integration of grey-zone coercion and geoeconomic leverage into a single strategy designed to change rivals’ behaviour without requiring overt conflict. Each instrument is modest and deniable individually. A coast guard patrol, a withheld export licence, elite capture and a viral rumour: none is a casus belli. Applied together and patiently over a longer timeline, they shift the facts on the ground while making retaliation politically awkward or economically painful for everyone but Beijing. – China’s Grey-Zone and Geoeconomic Coercion Below the Threshold of Conflict | Royal United Services Institute
China – Kyrgyzstan – Tajikistan
(Rollan Ismail – IFRI) Over the past three decades, China’s influence in Central Asia has steadily expanded, but in the last three to five years this process has entered a markedly accelerated phase. Following 2022, Beijing effectively revised both its strategy and its operational approach toward the region – China in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: From Economic Presence to a New Security Role | Ifri
India
(Sunaina Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) India’s approach to development partnerships in the Global South is becoming increasingly inventive. This is evident in its outreach to the Caribbean and Latin America, where India has extended US$1 million grants to nine countries to set up food and agro-processing units that support small and medium enterprises. Two of those facilities were handed over by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in May this year on his tour of the Caribbean: a passion fruit processing and packaging facility in Suriname and a fruit and vegetable processing facility in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T). Similar facilities for food processing have also been set up in Saint Vincent & Grenadines, Dominican Republic, Barbados, Honduras, Belize, Saint Kitts & Nevis, and Guyana. They are part of the SEEDS initiative (Supply of Equipment for Efficient Development of SMEs), a development cooperation programme by the Ministry of External Affairs, which provides critical agricultural machinery and equipment from India to support value addition and enhance productivity and income for farmers and agri-SMEs. Agricultural productivity and value addition are challenges in countries like Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and across the Caribbean and Central American region, which is a net importer of food. A majority of farmers in the region are smallholders, with limited access to infrastructure and processing capacity, directly impacting food security and livelihoods. The facilities under the SEEDS initiative are designed to reduce post-harvest losses, enhance value addition, increase farmers’ incomes, strengthen the agri-SME ecosystem, create employment opportunities, and improve export capabilities. They are also adaptable to local production systems and value-chain priorities—the SEEDS initiatives include cocoa processing in the Dominican Republic, coconut processing in Barbados, and juice processing in Honduras. – Small Grants, Big Stakes: India’s Evolving Approach to Development Partnerships
Indo – Pacific
(Commodore (Rtd) Peter Olive OBE, Dr Philip Shetler-Jones and Caroline Tuckett – RUSI) The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) recently conducted a four-day patrol of waters east of Taiwan. Initially justified as a response to Philippine and Japanese negotiations on demarcating their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) boundaries that run through this area, People’s Republic of China (PRC) state media has since announced this is but the first in a series of deployments intended to consolidate its claimed jurisdiction over these waters. This would therefore appear to be a continuation of PRC tactics used in the South China Seas (SCS), using coastguard and paramilitary vessels to enforce its claims, in a manner designed to minimise international backlash. – Threats to Maritime Trade are Spreading to the Indo-Pacific | Royal United Services Institute
Iran
(Samand Muhammadshahi – The Washington Institute) As Iran spars with the United States while testing a fragile ceasefire, it is exploiting the situation to step up its crackdown on dissent at home. Since Tehran’s ceasefire with Washington, the restive Sistan and Baluchestan region in southeastern Iran has witnessed increased political repression and violent suppression of dissent. The emerging scenario validates the apprehensions of Baloch groups that the regime, to compensate for the reduction of its power as a result of the war, will carry out reprisals against minority nationalities in a show of force. Baluchestan is Iran’s least developed and poorest region with the country’s highest unemployment rate. The Baloch people, as a Sunni ethno-religious minority, are excluded from Iran’s administrative structures and suffer disproportionately from state atrocities. Sistan and Baluchestan province shares two long and porous borders, one with Afghanistan, the other with Pakistan’s Balochistan province, which serve as key routes for illicit trade in consumer commodities, drug trafficking, and human smuggling. Informal trade provides a livelihood for thousands of families in these areas due to high levels of poverty and unemployment. – After War, a Crackdown in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan Province | The Washington Institute
Iraq
(Devorah Margolin, Gabriel Wein – The Washington Institute) On the eve of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington next week, Iraqi forces backed by the U.S.-led coalition carried out a series of operations against Islamic State (IS) targets. Since the group’s territorial defeat in Iraq a decade ago, its local presence has diminished, and it no longer poses an existential threat to the country. Yet its remnants thrive in chaos and could seek to rebuild their ranks and capabilities by exploiting new dynamics—including the recent transfer of 5,700 IS-affiliated detainees to Iraq, the regional instability stirred by conflicts involving Iran and its militia proxies, and the ticking clock on Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), the U.S.-led counter-IS mission that is set to expire in September after years of negotiations.
To be sure, the future fight against IS will not be the top discussion point at Zaidi’s upcoming meeting with President Trump, since both leaders have a long list of other priorities, such as pursuing new investment opportunities (particularly in the energy sector), finding a way forward on Iran-backed militias and broader Iranian influence in Iraq, and smoothing internal relations between Baghdad and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. Nevertheless, considering the hard-won victories against IS and the need to prevent this progress from eroding, officials should use the visit as an opportunity to address this persistent threat and shape the next phase of the counter-IS fight. – Iraqi Visit Can Help Shape the Future Fight Against the Islamic State | The Washington Institute
Lebanon – Israel
(UN News) The ceasefire deal between Beirut and Tel Aviv has led to a marked reduction in hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli military, sparked by the wider Iran-Israel-US war, but the situation remains uncertain for communities returning home only to find widespread destruction, UN peacekeepers said on Wednesday. And while there’s less heavy fighting today along the Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel, ceasefire violations are still being reported as Hezbollah militants and Israeli troops clash – an escalation that began soon after Israeli-US bombing of Iran began on 28 February. In line with its Security Council mandate, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) continues to support efforts to achieve long-term security and stability for the region’s people. “The level of violence has been reduced, but we continue to record a number of violations of Resolution 1701 on a daily basis,” said UNIFIL spokesperson Kandice Ardiel. “Peacekeepers are working, including through our liaison and coordination mechanisms, to consolidate the stability gains we’ve seen and continue efforts towards security and stability for everyone living along the Blue Line”. The reduction in fighting has enabled many displaced Lebanese families to return to their homes in the south, though significant challenges remain. In many villages and towns including Majdal Zoun, Kafra and Tyre, heavy shelling has scarred the land, while homes, schools and a health centre lie in ruins. – Grim homecoming: Devastation greets Lebanon’s war-weary returnees | UN News
NATO
(Atlantic Council) “This is a tremendously successful summit.” So declared US President Donald Trump before departing the NATO Summit today. At the start of the two-day gathering in Ankara, the president delivered some post–Independence Day fireworks by criticizing allies on defense spending, again raising the prospect of seizing Greenland, and escalating the on-and-off conflict with Iran. But the meetings were cordial, and by the end, Trump was lauding NATO’s “unification.” In a brief communiqué, allies reaffirmed the Article 5 collective defense pledge and called on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while announcing fifty billion dollars in new defense procurement and eighty billion dollars more for Ukraine. – Was the NATO Summit a success? – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Jax Ellis – The Jamestown Foundation) The French navy seized the sanctioned crude oil tanker Deliver in the Mediterranean on June 23. This marks the latest in an increasingly frequent series of enforcement measures by European countries against Russia’s shadow fleet. Boardings have a legitimate legal basis, but Russian officials characterize them as piracy and dispute the existence of a “shadow fleet.” At the same time, Russia is accepting more of these ships onto its registry. As sanctions put pressure on traditional “flag of convenience” countries to expel these ships from their registries, more shadow fleet vessels are registering under the Russian flag. This lets these ships avoid interdiction, but exposes Russia to more direct responsibility for the fleet and takes away deniability. – Russia’s Shadow Fleet Continues to Sail – Jamestown
(Richard Arnolds – The Jamestown Foundation) As Ukrainian missile strikes expand across Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin has framed the war as a Western test of Russia’s “resilience,” drawing attention to the structures the Kremlin relies upon to bridge the civil-military divide and reinforce societal cohesion. The state-sponsored Cossack movement has become part of Moscow’s wartime messaging, with battlefield claims, public ceremonies, and official recognition used to portray Cossack formation as evidence of Russian strength rather than decline. Beyond combat, Cossacks serve as instruments of domestic cohesion by promoting sovereignty, national identity, and public order, reinforcing the Kremlin’s efforts to preserve stability amid uncertainty over Russia’s long-term ability to sustain the war. – Cossack Resilience in Face of Ukrainian Gains – Jamestown
Sudan
(UN News) Atrocities committed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia against Sudanese civilians in El Fasher in October – including mass killings, abductions and gang rapes – bear the markers of genocide, independent UN human rights investigators reported on Wednesday. The mission found “indicators of a genocidal path” in a report released in February. The new report builds on the earlier findings by providing additional evidence on sexual violence, forced disappearances, detention and mass killings. “The patterns we documented in El Fasher – including encirclement, attacks on civilian infrastructure, restrictions on humanitarian access, and widespread abuses against civilians – serve as a stark warning,” said Mohamed Chande Othman, Chair of the UN Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan. “The international community must heed these lessons and act to prevent further catastrophe.” – Sudan: ‘El Obeid must not become the next crime scene’ warn UN investigators | UN News
Syria
(UN News) UN investigators have urged Syria’s Government to trace thousands of missing detainees and hold perpetrators to account after a week-long visit that took in bomb attacks in Damascus, prison visits in the northeast and reports of vigilante violence in Homs. Monia Ammar and Fionnuala Ní Aoláin from the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria met victims, government officials and civil society groups between 1 and 7 July. They also visited Homs and Quneitra following earlier trips to Damascus, Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Raqqa and Hassakeh. – UN Syria inquiry presses for answers on missing detainees after wide-ranging visit | UN News
Türkiye – Four Seas Concept – Syria – Eurasia
(Sertaç Canalp Korkmaz – The Jamestown Foundation) The energy environment in Eurasia has transitioned to a security issue, and discussions of the Four Seas concept have returned. The plan allows Türkiye to leverage itself as the central overland energy transit hub connecting the Persian Gulf, Caspian, Mediterranean, and Black seas via Syria. A post-Assad Eurasian realignment is downsizing Russia’s footprint in Syria, severing Iran’s land corridor to the Mediterranean, and allowing Türkiye to consolidate the vacuum of energy transit to Europe. Ankara has already turned part of the vision into operational fact through the Kilis–Aleppo pipeline. If it scales depends on whether Russia maintains its presence in Syria and how long a U.S. footprint in the project persists. – Türkiye Seeks to Use Syria’s Realignment For Eurasian Energy Leverage – Jamestown
UK
(Tahlia Peterson – Chatham House) Andy Burnham is near-certain to succeed Keir Starmer as UK prime minister. He will inherit a world in which technological leadership increasingly shapes economic prosperity, military capability and geopolitical influence. Emerging science and technology fields including AI, quantum technologies and engineering biology are no longer simply drivers of productivity; they are instruments of state power. Yet despite successive governments proclaiming ambitions to make the UK a global science and technology power, Britain still lacks a sufficiently coherent strategy to compete in a fast-evolving technological landscape defined by US–China rivalry. The UK’s challenge is not a lack of ambition, but a lack of sustained strategic focus. Over the past decade, successive governments have produced numerous science and technology-oriented strategies. But priorities have shifted with changes of leadership and ministerial reshuffles, and funding programmes have too often been replaced or redirected rather than developed into long-term national capabilities. Strategic technologies require investment horizons measured in decades, not parliamentary terms. Britain’s aim should not be to match the scale of investment or technological breadth of the US or China. It cannot. Nor should it aspire to technological self-sufficiency. Its competitive advantage lies in identifying those technologies where it can develop genuine strategic leverage and concentrating public investment, industrial policy and international partnerships accordingly. – Can a Burnham government make Britain a global leader in science and technology? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Iran
(Council on Foreign Relations) The fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire appeared to be in danger on Wednesday as the two sides exchanged fresh strikes and President Donald Trump threatened to end the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). U.S. forces attacked targets in Iran and the White House reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales on Tuesday. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by firing at U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. “To me, I think it’s over,” Trump said about the agreement during the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday. He later claimed that further strikes were imminent. “We hit them [Iran] very hard last night,” he told reporters, “and we’re going to hit them hard again tonight”. The collapse of the sixty-day MOU—signed just over three weeks ago to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lay the groundwork for a permanent end to the war—would deal a severe blow to efforts to restore normal shipping through the waterway. But reopening the strait, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits, is just the first step. Several other formidable roadblocks—continued aggression between the United States and Iran, transit fees, sea mines, infrastructure damage, and deep mistrust in the region—stand between the strait’s nominal reopening and a genuine recovery of global energy markets after one hundred days of disruption. – The Strait of Hormuz Already Faces a Tough Recovery. Now Trump’s Iran Deal Is Unraveling. | Council on Foreign Relations
(UN News) Renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz unsettled energy markets on Wednesday and prompted calls from the UN maritime agency, IMO, for “maximum restraint and de-escalation”. Amid reports that three merchant vessels were hit along with Iranian targets, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez condemned “reckless attacks” in the past two days against several ships transiting the narrow waterway, a vital conduit for a significant proportion of the world’s energy needs. – US-Iran war: Renewed attacks in Strait of Hormuz prompts another global energy alert | UN News
Venezuela
(The Soufan Center) Two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela in late June, with the death toll reaching over 3,500 so far, as thousands of survivors find themselves suddenly displaced, and as the cost of the damage reaches billions. As recovery efforts remain underway, it is clear that the response to the earthquakes has led to the outward dissatisfaction of Venezuelans with their government. The international community has mobilized delegations of first responders to aid recovery efforts, highlighting how emergency assistance can serve as a key soft power instrument. The natural disaster has highlighted the deep-seated political and economic vulnerabilities in Venezuela, in light of the U.S. regime change operation in January 2026 that ousted former President Nicolás Maduro. – Earthquake Creates Big Test for Venezuela’s New Government – The Soufan Center
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