Sources: Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations; IISS; RUSI; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center; UN News
Around and beyond the war in Iran
(Sam Vigersky – Council on Foreign Relations) While U.S. and Iranian negotiators circle the thorniest issues in Switzerland—Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, Tehran’s regional proxies, and long-term access through the Strait of Hormuz—the Trump administration has quietly seized on something it sees as win-win: releasing frozen Iranian money to buy American food under a humanitarian relief framing. The emerging proposal speaks to a broader Trump administration mindset about humanitarian aid. The White House’s view is that relief should do more than answer urgent need; it should also advance U.S. strategic and domestic priorities. Perhaps that is why the Trump administration is now considering the revival of a Biden-era framework that would unlock $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds for the procurement of humanitarian goods, according to the Wall Street Journal. This time, however, the Trump administration has added a new condition: Iran’s funds can only be used to purchase U.S.-origin humanitarian goods. As one U.S. diplomat described this exchange, “Iranians get humanitarian goods for their people, and the Iranian money is used to support American farmers.” – Trump’s Iran Food Deal Could End Up Helping the Regime, Not Its People | Council on Foreign Relations
(The Soufan Center) Low-intensity clashes between the U.S. and Iran since Thursday put the bilateral peace process in jeopardy as Iran seeks to retain control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian leaders view their ability to close the Strait as their primary strategic leverage to deter the U.S. from initiating major combat against the regime at any time in the future. President Trump and his team see the full reopening of the Strait as essential to reducing the economic and political fallout from the decision to launch Operation Epic Fury. In the face of renewed attacks from Iran, the Arab Gulf states support the U.S. position on the Strait, but they also seek to de-escalate tensions with Iran and consider new options to ensure their security. – Challenges in the Strait of Hormuz as Ceasefire is Tested by Tit-for-Tat Strikes – The Soufan Center
(UN News) With another weekend of strikes involving the United States and Iran, renewed diplomatic efforts on Monday have eased immediate fears of escalation, but the economic shockwaves are already taking a heavy toll on some of the world’s poorest countries. According to the UN Development Programme (UNDP), developing economies are being forced to spend hundreds of billions of dollars shielding households from soaring energy costs, leaving less money for schools, hospitals and climate action. Their new report, Military Escalation in the Middle East: Cushioning the Global Shock, finds that governments have relied on fossil fuel subsidies, price caps and tax rebates to protect families from higher oil prices triggered by instability in the Middle East. While these measures provide short-term relief, they come at a steep long-term cost, the agency reports. UNDP projects global fossil fuel subsidies will climb to $1.1 trillion in 2026, around $410 billion higher than in 2025 if oil prices average $88.60 a barrel. In a more severe scenario, with prices reaching $110 a barrel, subsidies could rise to $1.43 trillion. – Middle East conflict leaves developing countries paying the price | UN News
Brazil
(Louis Bearn – IISS) On 24 April 2026, Brazil’s surface-fleet modernisation effort achieved a major milestone with the commissioning of its first Tamandaré-class frigate, based on the German MEKO A-100 design. The lead ship, constructed in Brazil by the Águas Azuis Consortium, represents the Brazilian Navy’s first commissioning of a new frigate class in almost two decades. Furthermore, in a departure from previous vessels, the ship was constructed entirely domestically, with subsequent units to follow suit, possibly in the mid-2030s. In April 2026, the Brazilian Navy confirmed that a second batch of four frigates will be constructed, bringing the total number of planned vessels to eight. The commissioning and the programme’s extension reflect the country’s aspirations to transform its naval capabilities, as underscored in its 2023 national maritime strategy. It also represents a long-overdue modernisation drive, based for the first time largely on domestic production, with overseas technical support. This modernisation effort faces uncertainty, however, as questions linger over whether Brazil can afford the planned second batch of follow-on frigates on top of its capital-intensive conventional and nuclear-powered submarine programme, which has already encountered delays. – Brazil’s new class of frigates sets the tone for naval expansion plan
Georgia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) The State Security Service of Georgia detained Gulbaat Rtskhiladze, the head of the pro-Russian non-governmental organization (NGO), the Eurasia Institute, and Irakli Chikhladze, founder of the Tbilisi-registered Caucasian Center for Civil Hearings, under charges of espionage in favor of Russia. Georgian Dream portrays the espionage arrests as evidence of equal vigilance toward Russia and the West, while critics argue the government is creating a false equivalency that obscures the primary security threat posed by Russia. The high-profile prosecutions reflect Georgian Dream’s broader strategy of reinforcing domestic loyalty and asserting foreign policy independence, using espionage cases to counter accusations of pro-Russian bias while warning political allies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and state officials. – Georgian Dream Uses Espionage Cases to Project Neutrality – Jamestown
Global Terrorism and International Cooperation
(UN News) Terrorism is evolving amid global instability characterised by heightened geopolitical tensions, protracted conflicts and growing fragmentation – and the international response must also evolve to meet the challenge. The issue is the spotlight as the United Nations marks the organization’s Fourth Counter-Terrorism Week, bringing together more than 1,000 participants from some 119 countries, representing governments, regional organizations, academia, civil society and the private sector. Alexandre Zouev, UN Acting Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism, laid out the current landscape in an address in the General Assembly Hall on Monday. – International cooperation critical as terrorism threat evolves | UN News
NATO
(Jobe Solomon – RUSI) The strategic consequences of the Iran conflict have reverberated far beyond the Middle East. Despite a fragile cessation of hostilities, the shockwaves from months of war have driven up fuel prices across Europe, disrupted fertilizer supply chains threatening global food security, and forced school closings across Asia – echoing the disruptions the world experienced during COVID-19. An MOU between the United States and Iran, even if it holds, cannot undo the cascading consequences already in motion.
This conflict was only the latest in a series of compounding shocks – from the European migration crisis and COVID-19 to Russia’s war in Ukraine – each arriving before governments fully recovered from the last, eroding institutional capacity, weakening public trust, and making future crises harder to manage. Rapid breakthroughs in AI and other dual-purpose technologies have only compounded the challenge, lowering the barriers for non-state actors to cause catastrophic harm. Strong, resilient societies are better positioned across the entire risk spectrum to absorb shocks, maintain cohesion, and deny adversaries the vulnerabilities they seek to exploit. Given these cascading crises, it is imperative for Allies to pursue meaningful public and private investments under Article 3 of the NATO Charter, which has been clarified to include critical infrastructure protection, civil defence preparedness, energy security, and the continuity of government and essential services. Without this foundation, the Alliance will remain more vulnerable to future geopolitical shocks and will be ill-prepared to defend its collective territory should deterrence fail. – From Tehran to Brussels: The Iran Conflict Underscores NATO’s Article 3 Imperative | Royal United Services Institute
Radiological and Nuclear Threats – Europe
(Jacek Siewiera and Jim Stokes – Atlantic Council) As recent radiological incidents have demonstrated, Europe’s ability to detect and respond to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats is limited. Existing capabilities are largely reactive, rely on a patchwork of national systems, and remain dependent on external support and US-funded infrastructure. Closing this security gap will require a coordinated shift toward a programmatic, Europe-wide detection architecture. – Radiological and nuclear threats are no longer hypothetical. Europe needs to respond. – Atlantic Council
Russia – Ukraine
(David Traugott – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s targeting of prominent Ukrainian cultural heritage sites during a massive overnight attack on June 15 may indicate the beginning of a more brazen strike campaign against symbols of Ukrainian identity. Moscow’s simultaneous targeting of cultural sites and civilian infrastructure is designed to break Ukrainian morale. The Kremlin has paired massive strike campaigns with increasingly aggressive rhetoric and shows of force aimed at Ukraine’s Western partners. This fits Russia’s broader strategy of forcing Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace settlement by undermining Western support. Russian President Vladimir Putin may choose to escalate militarily, either inside or outside of Ukraine, in an attempt to restore his reputation as the leader of a powerful country that cannot lose. – Russia Intensifies Strikes and Bluster as War Against Ukraine Falters – Jamestown
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine has intensified long-range strikes against Russian energy, industrial, and logistics targets, including a gas processing plant in Orenburg and a defense plant in Volgograd during the last week, while also disrupting supply routes to occupied Crimea, exposing vulnerabilities that Russian authorities have struggled to address or conceal. Putin continues to portray the war as a steady Russian advance despite mounting battlefield attrition, growing drone attacks inside Russia, fuel shortages in Crimea and other regions, and increasing public awareness of the war’s economic and social costs. The combination of military setbacks, supply-chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, and infrastructure damage is creating mutually reinforcing strains on Russia’s war effort, raising questions about the sustainability of Putin’s strategy as his public narrative increasingly diverges from conditions on the ground. – Ukraine’s Expanding Strike Campaign Undercuts Putin’s Claims of Steady Progress – Jamestown
(UN News) Missile and drone attacks killed at least a dozen civilians in Russia and Ukraine over the weekend as both countries continue to launch long-range drone strikes. Ukrainian authorities reported eight civilians killed and 35 others wounded in Russian attacks on the city of Dnipro on Monday, while Russian authorities reported at least six people killed by Ukrainian strikes on Russian and Russian-controlled territory over the weekend. Moscow began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, eight years after annexing the Crimean Peninsula. The UN has repeatedly and forcefully condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion, with multiple General Assembly resolutions demanding Russia withdraw its forces while the UN and its partners continue to provide crucial humanitarian assistance. The latest civilian casualties come as Russia and Ukraine escalate attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Russian authorities reported on Sunday that Ukrainian forces set a major oil refinery ablaze, which could deepen Russian fuel shortages. Meanwhile, Russian armed forces targeted energy facilities across Ukraine throughout the 2025-26 winter months, causing emergency electricity outages affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians, according to a UN human rights office (OHCHR) report released on Monday. – UN details humanitarian toll of strikes on Ukrainian power industry | UN News
Russia – Ukraine – Belarus
(Hanna Liubakova – Atlantic Council) Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka is not enthusiastic about the prospect of joining Russia’s Ukraine invasion, but he appears to be steadily building up his country’s military capacity in case he finds himself pushed more directly into the war. That was the central message of a recent report presented to the Ukrainian government by the Belarusian democratic opposition. It documented numerous signs of Belarus’s accelerating militarization, including changes to military legislation, the expansion of the country’s armed forces and reserve system, the militarization of schools, and the growing mobilization of civilian institutions. This report comes as tensions between Minsk and Kyiv continue to rise. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly called on Lukashenka to dismantle relay equipment on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border that Kyiv claims is used to guide Russian drone attacks against Ukrainian targets. If the Belarusian leader failed to act, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would intervene directly. Within days, the relay stations reportedly went offline. It remains unclear whether they were dismantled or simply switched off, but the timing suggests Zelenskyy’s warning was taken seriously. Kyiv’s concerns extend far beyond relay stations. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Belarus has served as a launchpad for Russian attacks on Ukraine while steadily deepening defense cooperation with Moscow. Hundreds of Belarusian enterprises now manufacture components for Russian missiles, air-defense systems, drones, electronic warfare equipment, and ammunition. The recent issue over relay equipment cannot therefore be viewed as an isolated incident. On the contrary, it is merely one of the many manifestations of Belarus’s undeclared role in Russia’s war. – Belarus is quietly preparing to play a larger role in Russia’s Ukraine war – Atlantic Council
Sudan
(UN News) The United Nations has welcomed Sudan’s decision to extend the opening of an aid corridor with neighbouring Chad and continues to express concern over the ongoing escalation in El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan state. The Sudanese authorities announced on Monday that the Adre border crossing – critical for humanitarian aid delivery into the Darfur and Kordofan regions – will remain available through 30 September. “This will continue to allow us to deliver humanitarian aid to those in need, despite the ongoing insecurity,” UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said in New York. – Sudan: UN welcomes extension of vital aid corridor amid rising insecurity | UN News
US – Missile Threat
(Daniel Salisbury – IISS) In March 2026, then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. The document noted that the United States Intelligence Community projected a more-than fivefold expansion of missile threats to the US homeland, ‘to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035, from the current figure of more than 3,000 missiles’. The report noted that China, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia would continue to pursue advanced and long-range missiles. These states would allegedly pair these with ‘cheaper, expendable systems’ – likely one-way attack uninhabited aerial vehicles (OWA UAVs) – to ‘stress U.S. missile defenses’ with affordable mass. The origins of this assessment date back to 2025, when US President Donald Trump announced the ‘Golden Dome’ missile-defence shield. As part of the Presidential Action, he required that ‘an updated assessment of the strategic missile threat to the Homeland’ be submitted within 60 days. The assessment prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and released in May 2025 provides a breakdown of the roughly 16,000 missile threats mentioned in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (the May 2025 Golden Dome assessment schematic includes a total of 16,606 missiles). The projections suggested some growth in adversarial states nuclear arsenals. For example, China’s number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) is projected to grow from 400 to 700 and its submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) from 72 to at least 132. – A growing missile threat to the US homeland and the emerging arms race
Tech World, Security, and Surveillance
(Julia Voo, Dara Janelle Eoy – IISS) Read individually, platform takedown reports (i.e., disclosures of platform removals of online accounts, domains, channels and other assets associated with inauthentic activity) between 2024 and 2025 suggest isolated incidents. Taken together, however, they reveal a persistent, adaptive and often multilingual pattern of covert influence operations by states and other actors. For this analysis, IISS compiled a dataset of 844 takedowns disclosed by Google, Meta and TikTok from 2024 to 2025, comprising 508,599 removed assets. While limited to three companies, the dataset provides a useful cross-platform assessment of recurring actors, narratives and operating models linked to 53 countries. Inauthentic activity refers to coordinated and deceptive online behaviour that utilises fake or misrepresented identities and affiliations to shape the information environment and structure political choice. For states and other actors, covert influence operations are a relatively low-cost means to shape perceptions, undermine rivals, reinforce narratives and influence political choices. As global strategic competition intensifies, the incentives to keep using them are likely to endure. – What platform disclosures reveal about persistent inauthentic activity
In collaboration with
