Sources (IISS; The Jamestown Foundation)
Armenia – Eurasian Economic Union
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is continuing to pursue free trade across member-states, but Armenia’s membership is in doubt following the Armenian Prime Minister’s pro-Western Civil Contract party’s victory in the country’s June 7 parliamentary elections. Trade volume among member states remains low for a free trade bloc, and the economic effects of Armenia’s potential exit would likely be negligible for the EAEU as a whole. Moscow’s and other member states’ responses to the possibility of Armenia leaving the bloc have highlighted that the EAEU is as much a political project as an economic one. – Moscow Concerned About Armenia’s Wavering EAEU Membership – Jamestown
Central Asia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Water shortages in Central Asia have become so severe that they can no longer be resolved by water-sharing agreements between the so-called “water surplus” upstream countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the “water short” downstream countries. This crisis is undermining not only growth and stability in the region’s countries but also regional cooperation, and is increasingly involving neighboring countries, from whom the region seeks water, threatening massive refugee flows if it does not get it.
For the foreseeable future, the need for water and the inability of the Central Asian countries to solve this problem on their own are thus likely to be a major cause of conflict within the region and between its countries and the People’s Republic of China, Russia and Afghanistan. – Growing Water Shortages in Central Asia Threaten Region and its Neighbors – Jamestown
Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT RevCon)
(Daniel Salisbury – IISS) From 27 April–22 May 2026, the 11th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT RevCon) took place at the United Nations in New York. Slated to take place every five years since the NPT’s indefinite extension in 1995, the four-week summits are the culmination of the NPT-review cycle. The latest RevCon again failed to produce a consensus final document, therein highlighting the growing schism between nuclear-weapon and non-nuclear-weapon states, the two categories enshrined in the original NPT. The deadlock was due largely to the language surrounding Iran’s non-compliance, but efforts to reach consensus were further complicated by ongoing regional conflicts where nuclear facilities have been under attack – now in the Middle East as well as in Ukraine. – A nuclear order under strain?
Russia – China – Power of Siberia 2
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Shares of Gazprom dropped sharply after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) ended without progress on the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline. Gazprom lost about $1.4 billion in value on May 20 alone amid renewed doubts over Russian access to PRC gas markets. Russia is hoping to replace European markets for its natural gas—which largely closed after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—with the PRC’s. Gazprom currently relies on Power of Siberia 1 to deliver its natural gas to the PRC, but it lacks the capacity to replace the volume of gas that flowed to Europe, intensifying pressure to reach a deal with the PRC on Power of Siberia 2. The PRC is pushing for near-domestic gas prices and flexible volumes, while Russia insists on higher prices and “take-or-pay” guarantees. Even if an agreement is reached, Power of Siberia 2 would take years to build, and PRC demand would not fully offset lost European gas revenues. – Putin’s PRC Visit Failed to Advance Power of Siberia 2 – Jamestown
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