In collaboration with
Fonti: Atlantic Council; The Jamestown Foundation
Europe, Energy, Greece, Cyprus
(Atlantic Council) As Russia wages war in Ukraine and Iran maintains its hold on the Strait of Hormuz, Europe is getting a reality check about how energy can be weaponized—and now it should be “united” in addressing it, said Stavros Papastavrou, Greece’s minister of environment and energy. Papastavrou spoke at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum on Wednesday, explaining that today’s crises have jolted Europe into a sense of “energy realism.”. Now, it is looking to become more resilient. And for Michael Damianos, Cyprus’s minister of energy, commerce, and industry, “becoming more resilient means being a bit more diversified.”. Cyprus currently holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, and Damianos explained that in diversifying, the EU needs to “develop [its] own internal sources of energy,” which “can … include fossil fuels as well.” Papastavrou agreed, arguing that Europe needs to develop “all” domestic resources “in order to be able to have our energy independence.”. While Europe maintains several ambitious renewable energy targets, Papastavrou argued that European leaders are realizing from this crisis that these goals, while “noble,” are based on “morality” and “did not take into account the competitiveness of the economy.”. “We need to be technologically neutral,” he said. – Europe’s route out of this energy crisis, as mapped by Cyprus and Greece – Atlantic Council
US, Iran
(Jessica Brandt – Council on Foreign Relations) Iran’s diplomatic response to President Donald Trump’s threat to destroy Iranian civilization wasn’t a condemnation or a counterthreat. It was a scheduling request. “8PM is not so good. Could you change it to between 1 and 2PM — or if possible, 1 and 2AM?” one Iranian embassy wrote on X. When Trump later delivered an expletive-laden demand that Tehran open the Strait of Hormuz, it responded with a joltingly deadpan quip: “We’ve lost the keys.”. These jocular retorts are not one-offs. They are part of Iran’s much broader strategy to push back on the United States in the information domain—one that encompasses satirical memes, artificial intelligence (AI)-generated videos, and sarcastic pile-ons designed to undercut U.S. soft power abroad and deepen reticence for military action among Americans at home. This is a problem, as I pointed out in a recent New York Times guest essay. The United States isn’t well postured to address foreign influence campaigns like this—nimble, culturally savvy, and not fundamentally deceptive. And as Iran refines its approach, other threat actors are watching. – Iran’s Trolling Caught the U.S. Off Guard. Here’s How to Push Back. | Council on Foreign Relations
US, Israel, and the war in Iran
(Daniel B. Shapiro – Atlantic Council) The Iran conflict has exposed several major fissures between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over war aims. The two leaders are moving apart over the Strait of Hormuz, the elements of a deal with Iran, and Hezbollah’s threat from Lebanon. These disagreements do not preclude the two leaders from working together to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but they do narrow the space to make common cause on other issues. – From a gap to a chasm: Diverging US and Israeli interests in the war with Iran – Atlantic Council
Georgia
(Beka Chedia/The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has signaled its desire to restore the suspended U.S.–Georgia strategic partnership and claimed active dialogue with Washington is underway. At the same time, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze rejected suggestions that Georgia must alter its domestic or foreign policies as a condition for improved relations. Tbilisi’s simultaneous deepening of ties with the People’s Republic of China, alongside growing engagement with Iran and pragmatic relations with Russia, has intensified U.S. scrutiny over foreign influence, intelligence penetration, and democratic backsliding in Georgia. Georgian Dream denies allegations that Georgia is drifting toward Russia, the People’s Republic of China, or Iran, arguing that economic ties with these countries remain limited. Critics, however, contend that the government’s growing engagement with non-Western powers risks undermining trust with Georgia’s traditional Western partners. – Georgian Dream Seeking U.S. Reset While Resisting Requisite Reforms – Jamestown
Russia, Iran, Gulf States
(Fuad Shahbazov – The Jamestown Foundation) Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on April 27 about the ongoing conflict in and around Iran. The visit highlighted the two states’ Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, signed in January 2025. Russia has reaped some economic benefits from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which raised oil demand and prices and caused the United States to ease sanctions on Russian oil already at sea. If Moscow shows robust military support for Iran, however, it risks damaging economic and diplomatic ties with other Gulf states. Russia is constrained from acting as a main mediator in the Iran conflict due to its war against Ukraine. The Iran conflict also endangers key trade corridors, including the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which links Russia and Iran via the Caucasus. – Russia Balances Relationship with Iran and Other Gulf States – Jamestown
