The Impact of Tariffs on the AI Data Center Buildout: Balancing Supply Chain Security and AI Infrastructure Leadership

(Evan Brown, Michael Gary, Kate Koren, and Philip Luck – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The United States is on track to invest more than $2.7 trillion in data center infrastructure by 2030, with semiconductors representing approximately 54 cents of every dollar spent. The Trump administration has embraced two goals that are fundamentally in tension: an aggressive push to build out U.S. AI infrastructure, and broad use of Section 232 tariff authority to restrict the semiconductor and metal imports the buildout requires. A January 2025 proclamation that applied a 25 percent tariff on a specific subset of advanced semiconductors carved out imports for U.S. data center construction but left open the possibility of wider levies on all semiconductors and derivative products. A 100 percent tariff on all semiconductors and products containing them would likely impose an additional $1.4 trillion burden on the buildout. While such a maximalist approach to semiconductor tariffs is not the expected path for the administration, even more moderate tariff scenarios would function as a tax on the United States AI ambitions. This brief examines how semiconductor and metal tariffs interact with data center economics, assesses cost implications across multiple tariff scenarios, and offers policy recommendations to resolve the tension between supply chain security and AI infrastructure leadership. – The Impact of Tariffs on the AI Data Center Buildout: Balancing Supply Chain Security and AI Infrastructure Leadership