Today’s sources: Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center
Central Asia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Central Asian countries lack sufficient water for spring planting of food crops this year, setting the stage for population flight and even military conflict among themselves and with their neighbors, whose causes and consequences lie far beyond the region. Global warming and rapid population growth are the main culprits. Decaying infrastructure, Afghanistan’s diversion of water for its own population’s use, and the disruption of supply chains due to the conflict in Iran, however, are exacerbating the situation. The countries of the region and their neighbors are now discussing various solutions, including reviving the idea of diverting water from the Siberian River to Central Asia. These efforts, like earlier ones to save the Aral Sea, however, are likely to prove too little, too late. – New Crisis in the Making as Central Asia Lacks Enough Water for Spring Planting – Jamestown
China
(Shijie Wang – The Jamestown Foundation) The Iran war has exposed a widening gap between Beijing’s claims of military-technological superiority and the apparent battlefield performance of air defense and counter-drone warfare systems linked to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). PRC state media has amplified Iranian disinformation and shifted attention to supposed U.S. strategic weaknesses, rather than confront failures in Iran’s air-defense response to U.S. and Israeli strikes. The unexplained removal of multiple defense-linked academicians from the rosters of top scientific institutions has fueled suspicion that failures in overseas battlefield performance may be intersecting with deeper problems of accountability and effectiveness in the PRC defense-industrial system. – Weapons Systems Failures May Have Led to Personnel Removals – Jamestown
(Sunny Cheung – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has gone from a single pilot production line to a string of headline breakthroughs in photonics technology since 2024. Beijing has framed progress by researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Tsinghua University, Fudan University, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) as a way around U.S. chip sanctions. Photonic chips, which move information using light rather than electricity, are faster, run cooler, and—crucially for Beijing—do not depend on the cutting-edge factory equipment that the United States has blocked the PRC from buying. PRC labs are at or near the global frontier in several photonic research benchmarks, but the United States and Taiwan still dominate the parts of the photonic supply chain that turn lab demonstrations into viable, scalable products. – PRC’s Photonic Chip Push Signals Leapfrogging Moment – Jamestown
NATO
(Atlantic Council) Ahead of the Ankara summit in July 2026, new figures released by NATO show European allies outpacing previous expectations for defense spending—a welcome signal given ongoing turbulence in the transatlantic alliance. In 2025 alone, European allies and Canada increased defense spending by 20 percent from the previous calendar year, with all allies now exceeding the previous defense spending target of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). For the first time in recorded NATO history, a European ally—Norway—has surpassed the United States in defense spending per capita. – NATO defense spending tracker – Atlantic Council
Peru
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) Peru has earned a reputation for its so-called presidential curse, having had eight presidents take office in the past ten years. Many resigned or were impeached, and some are serving time at Barbadillo Prison in the capital, Lima, known as Peru’s “presidential prison.”. José Jerí became the most recent president to be removed from office on February 17—just four months into his term—over corruption allegations. Peru’s rapid leadership turnover has been driven largely by invoking a constitutional clause allowing Congress to impeach and remove leaders with a two-thirds majority for reasons of “permanent moral or physical incapacity.” This, combined with political clashes between the executive and legislative branches, frequent scandals, and a lack of legislative majorities, has fueled chronic political instability. The current cycle of revolving leadership traces back to the presidency of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who took office in 2016. With the first round of voting in the next general election scheduled for April 12—featuring thirty-five candidates—Peru will see its ninth president in a decade take office in 2026. – Peru Is About to Elect Its Ninth President in a Decade | Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine/NATO
(Taras Kuzio – The Jamestown Foundation) In March, a senior North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military delegation led by Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation Admiral Pierre Vandier visited Kyiv, highlighting a new phase of military cooperation between Ukraine and the alliance. Ukraine is gaining the status of a military innovator as Kyiv heads its own military training, increases success on the frontlines, expands medium and long-range missile attacks against Russia, targets Russian energy infrastructure, and receives urgent demand from Europe and the Gulf states for its military technology. Battlefield-tested drone tactics, advanced command-and-control systems, and a rapidly expanding private defense sector have made Ukraine one of the world’s leading laboratories for modern warfare, positioning it as a future hub for Western military innovation. – Ukrainian Military Offers Lessons Learned to NATO (Part One) – Jamestown
US
(Katherine Golden – Atlantic Council) For US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, it’s “telling” that “Iran targeted a lot of commercial interests” in its attacks on the Gulf. Landau spoke at an AC Front Page event on Thursday as part of the Freedom and Prosperity Center’s Global Prosperity Forum, which gathered policymakers, industry leaders, and scholars to explore global development solutions. In Gulf countries, Landau explained, “private enterprise . . . is what’s promoting stability,” so Iranian officials “regard those as military targets.”. He stated that the United States and Iran were in talks to clarify details about the cease-fire announced on Tuesday. But looking long term, he said, “it’d be amazing to think of an Iran that was not an enemy state but a state that would be welcoming private sector investment from the United States and other countries.” That, he said, “would change the world.”. That is the case because having strong commercial ties leads to “all kinds of good political and other ties between countries,” he argued, which is why “commercial and economic diplomacy” is a “key foundation of US foreign policy.”. “Promoting the prosperity of our country,” via commercial diplomacy, “can increase mutual prosperity,” he explained. – US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau: The old chapter on US foreign policy is ‘coming to a close’ – Atlantic Council
US/Southeast Asia
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States may have struck a fragile ceasefire deal with Iran, but the war has inflicted damage on U.S. relationships in Asia that were already strained after more than a year of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy. A new survey of leaders in Southeast Asian countries highlights the weakness of U.S. influence in the region, even among allies and partners. The annual State of Southeast Asia survey report produced by the Singapore-based think tank ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is hotly anticipated by regional experts, policymakers, and other opinion leaders. It surveys a range of Southeast Asian elites from academia, think tanks, research institutes, the private sector, governments, and civil society. Though it is not a complete public poll, the survey is generally considered the best gauge of Southeast Asian sentiment on a wide range of issues, including external powers’ influence in the region. – The U.S. Is Pushing Southeast Asia Toward China. The Iran War Made It Worse. | Council on Foreign Relations
War in Iran/Middle East/Gulf and beyond
(The Soufan Center) Direct U.S.-Iran talks are set to convene in Islamabad on Saturday, despite mutual accusations of ceasefire violations, but the prospects of reaching a permanent accord are poor. Iran seeks an agreement that ends the military threat to its regime and cements Iran and its Axis of Resistance alliance as a major ideological and political force in the region. Iranian leaders assess that Trump will not risk the economic consequences of restarting the conflict and will soften U.S. positions to reach an agreement. At the bargaining table, Tehran will seek tacit U.S. recognition that it can control and earn revenue from the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. – In Islamabad, Iran Will Try to Cement Strategic Gains – The Soufan Center
(The Soufan Center) Israel’s strikes across Lebanon immediately placed doubt upon the already tenuous ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Despite the White House’s claims, as of Wednesday, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially unchanged. After the ceasefire went into effect, missiles and drones continued to be fired at the Arab Gulf states, though it is unclear whether the continued attacks are a result of the decentralized nature of the IRGC command and control or whether these strikes have been the result of cells within the IRGC that disagree with the ceasefire agreement. Iran’s disastrous economy, along with mounting U.S. domestic pressure, puts the tenuous ceasefire into question; both countries feel the pressure to find an off-ramp to the conflict. – An Already Tenuous Ceasefire in Iran Hovers on the Verge of Collapse – The Soufan Center
