Today’s sources: Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations; East Asia Forum; GZERO Media; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center
Asia/Energy Security/Nuclear Weapons
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) As the Iran war’s economic ripple effects widen, countries across Asia are scrambling for both short-term solutions to the energy crisis and longer-term structural changes that will better ensure energy security. Most of the region, with a few minor exceptions, is extremely dependent on crude oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf. Countries such as Bangladesh and the Philippines are already desperate. The Philippines has declared a national emergency, while Bangladesh has imposed severe fuel rationing amid fears it could become the first Asian state to run out of fuel. Even more developed countries, like Japan and South Korea, are being affected by the energy crisis. Although Japan has significant strategic reserves, and both countries can temporarily switch to coal or purchase some LNG on the expensive spot market, leaders in Tokyo and Seoul are well aware that the situation could worsen quickly if U.S. President Donald Trump escalates by acting on his bellicose Easter comments. The crisis is now speeding up a debate within Japan and South Korea about expanding the use of nuclear power. In South Korea, there has also been renewed pressure to secure the rights to enrich a higher percentage of its own uranium for its nuclear plants. The Trump administration’s devotion of massive military resources to the Middle East—which has even diverted parts of the high-altitude missile interceptor system promised to South Korea—and its seeming indifference to Washington’s Asian allies has also sparked serious consideration in Tokyo and Seoul about whether the two Northeast Asian powers need their own nuclear weapons. – Why U.S. Allies in Asia Are Chasing Nuclear Energy—And Eyeing Nuclear Weapons | Council on Foreign Relations
Asia/Economy/Global Foreign Direct Investment
(East Asia Forum) Global foreign direct investment is under pressure from rising protectionism and policy uncertainty driven by the United States’ shift away from open trade, that is undermining investor confidence and cross-border capital flows. Despite this, the Asian economy has remained relatively resilient, with strong intra-regional investment supported by ongoing economic integration through mega-regional frameworks like RCEP and the CPTPP. Sustaining openness and predictable regulatory environments will be crucial for Asia to reinforce its position as the central hub of the global economy in the face of uncertainties elsewhere. – Taking stock of foreign direct investment in Asia | East Asia Forum
Australia/Indonesia
(Marina Ika Sari, Dion Maulana Prasetya – East Asia Forum) The 2026 Jakarta Treaty shifts Australia–Indonesia defence ties from functional cooperation to deeper strategic alignment, institutionalising high-level consultation while preserving both countries’ autonomy amid regional uncertainty. It could see expanded opportunities for collaboration in areas like maritime security, cybersecurity and defence industry, reflecting growing mutual reliance without formal alliance commitments. But enduring strategic differences and a persistent trust deficit means that the treaty’s success will depend on whether both parties can sustain transparent cooperation without reigniting historical tensions. – Indonesia and Australia step up defence cooperation | East Asia Forum
China
(Patrick Xue – East Asia Forum) Global fuel prices have surged following attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the continued vulnerability of fossil fuel-dependent economies to supply shocks. Concerns over reliance on Chinese renewable technology are overstated, as solar panels and wind turbines, once installed, generate energy for decades without ongoing exposure to geopolitical risk. The strategic response is faster deployment, not hesitation dressed up in the language of security. – China’s renewable capacity is a security asset, not a liability | East Asia Forum
(Andrew Wedeman – East Asia Forum) Chinese President Xi Jinping’s escalating anti-corruption campaign has swept through China’s military and political elite. But the scale and persistence of punishments suggest he is trapped in an unwinnable ‘forever war’ that undermines the cohesion and credibility of the People’s Liberation Army. Despite purging millions of party members since taking power, Xi continues to uncover corruption among his own appointees, indicating that his strategy has failed to deter misconduct yet cannot be abandoned without risking a resurgence that could threaten his rule. – Xi Jinping’s forever war on corruption | East Asia Forum
Defense spending
(Natalie Johnson – GZERO Media) China has boosted its defense spending 13-fold over the past three decades, modernizing its weapons and military into a force capable of operating beyond its borders. The buildup isn’t happening in isolation. Military spending in the Middle East climbed to 4.3% of the region’s GDP last year, up from 3.5% in 2022, driven in part by Israel after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Across Europe, meanwhile, governments led by Germany are ramping up defense budgets at a record pace. Even so, none of them comes close to the United States. – US defense spending vs. the world – GZERO Media
North Korea
(Mitch Shin – East Asia Forum) Kim Ju-ae, daughter of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, is reportedly being groomed as his designated successor. But the real question is not whether Kim Jong-un wants to pass power to his daughter — it is whether North Korea’s system can deliver her to it. Pyongyang’s military elite have served only male Kim leaders for three generations, and a young, untested woman would face structural barriers that no amount of state choreography can overcome. – North Korea not ready for a female successor | East Asia Forum
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is struggling to influence emerging alignments amid U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and the rapidly evolving Middle Eastern security dynamics. Moscow is sidelined from key diplomatic initiatives despite seeking relevance in the shifting Great Gulf Game. Moscow’s prolonged war against Ukraine has weakened its global standing amid military setbacks, economic strain, and internal tensions. Russia has limited its capacity to project power or effectively engage in parallel geopolitical developments across the Middle East. As other states assess their investments in the Middle East amid the reconfiguration of economic flows and security ties, Russia’s diminishing influence, strained partnerships, and unsustainable war-focused economy undermine its ambitions to shape a new multipolar order. – Dejected Putin Tries to Join the Great Gulf Game – Jamestown
Russia/Ukraine
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is utilizing the Cossack image and organizations to suppress Ukrainian identity in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russian bodies like Russia’s Federal Nationalities Ministry (FADN) portray Cossacks in the occupied territories as a loyal military-social class aligned with Russian narratives. Cossack organizations in the occupied territories of Ukraine are becoming a significant part of Kremlin-managed civil society in the occupied territories of Ukraine, where they engage with other Cossack groups, security roles, and administrative functions. One major focus of Cossack groups in the occupied territories of Ukraine is youth indoctrination and education. Cossack groups recruit young people, shape curricula, and promote pro-Kremlin ideology, aiming to cultivate a generation that identifies with Russia rather than Ukraine. – Cossack Organizations Suppress Ukrainian Identity in Occupied Territories – Jamestown
Sri Lanka
(Nishan de Mel – Atlantic Council) Sri Lanka’s gains over the past thirty years have been episodic and reversible, because governance has been neglected. The impact of Sri Lanka’s 2022 debt crisis on real wages, employment, poverty, and pensions, showed how fiscal crises are ultimately social crises. Sri Lanka needs four things working together: macroeconomic discipline, institutional reform, ethnic reconciliation, and an effective export-led growth strategy. – Sri Lanka needs a development plan, not just a recovery narrative – Atlantic Council
Thailand
(Ahmed Albayrak – East Asia Forum) Bhumjaithai’s election victory returned the royalist conservatives to power on a platform of stability. But record household debt and strained public finances are weighing on Thailand’s economic recovery, which is forecast to remain weak. Though exports surged in 2025, tariff uncertainty and the inefficient allocation of investment continue to hinder growth. Liberalising foreign ownership rules, opening restricted service sectors and expanding market access through trade agreements are necessary to attract the industries that drive long-term growth. – Thailand’s economic recovery depends on opening up | East Asia Forum
War in Iran/Middle East/Gulf and beyond
(The Soufan Center) U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran’s arsenal of missiles and drones has been only partially depleted. The remaining missile and drone inventory positions Tehran to fight a war of attrition and threaten the region after a ceasefire. Iranian attacks on its neighbors have expanded the war and caused significant physical and economic damage, likely hardening many states’ determination to confront Tehran. Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz has provided it with greater strategic benefits and deterrent capability than its missile and drone strikes. – Iran’s Missile and Drone Arsenal Remains Potent Despite Five Weeks of Intensive Strikes – The Soufan Center
