War in Iran/Middle East/Gulf and beyond
(Joseph Jarnecki and Noah Sylvia – RUSI) Before sunrise on Sunday 1 March, Iranian Shahed drones directly struck two Amazon Web Services data centres in the United Arab Emirates. That same morning, debris from a nearby strike damaged a third AWS data centre in Bahrain. Impacts to the facilities created significant disruption to financial, enterprise and consumer digital services in the UAE and the wider region. In the wake of the strikes, calls to treat data centres as strategic assets and critical infrastructure have grown louder. Data centres and the digital services operating on them are critical to the economy and society, but also to defence. As we have written previously, Ukraine’s Delta battlefield management system is hosted on the public cloud, the US’s Maven Smart System (created by Palantir) is hosted by AWS, and Israel has leveraged cloud-hosted AI capabilities in its war on Gaza. Where data centres are dual-use – hosting both civilian and military workloads – targeting them to disrupt military capabilities can make strategic sense. Nevertheless, this is the first time that kinetic capabilities have been used against public cloud infrastructure. And where Iran has stepped, others will likely follow. It is therefore necessary to better understand why Iran may have targeted these facilities and what are the possible strategic impacts. – Iranian Data Strikes Shake Global Digital Infrastructure | Royal United Services Institute
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) As the war in Iran enters its third week, the most pressing challenge facing the United States is opening the Strait of Hormuz. In an effort to get maritime cargo moving again, President Donald Trump earlier this week called on NATO and other allies, as well as China, to help the United States secure the waterway. The initial response was not positive. Asian and European partners said something to the effect that this wasn’t their war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared, “To this day, there is no convincing plan for how this operation could succeed. Washington has not consulted us and did not say European assistance was necessary.” French President Emmanuel Macron was more blunt: “We are not party to the conflict.” Finnish president Alexander Stubb suggested that Europe offer military support in Iran in exchange for more assistance to Ukraine and ensuring any peace deal favors Kyiv, not Moscow. Stubb’s offer hasn’t gained much traction, at least for now. – Coalitions of the Willing and the Strait of Hormuz | Council on Foreign Relations
China
(K. Tristan Tang – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) meetings during this year’s Two Sessions show that General Secretary Xi Jinping is attempting to further strengthen political control over the military. Requirements for military delegates to evince a correct political stance while participating in meetings, as well as key proposals from Xi Jinping and military representatives, shift from previously diverse military topics to a single focus on political awareness in the military. Xi Jinping places strong emphasis on listening to suggestions from grassroots officers and enlisted personnel on strengthening political control, which aligns with the 2025 emphasis on grassroots supervision of cadres within the military’s political work system. – Xi Seeks Further Political Control Over PLA at Two Sessions – Jamestown
(Christopher Nye, Charles Sun – The Jamestown Foundation) A new equilibrium is emerging in state–business relations following the cessation of regulatory campaigns against the technology sector in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC). Private sector firms are increasingly pursuing “proactive alignment,” preemptively synchronizing their business models with state-directed strategic objectives before receiving explicit political directives to do so. State control over key resources constitutes the material foundation for proactive alignment. By enforcing commanding leverage over advanced computational infrastructure through mega-projects and directed subsidies, the Party-state renders comprehensive conformity a prerequisite for doing business in the PRC. Legacy platforms have pivoted their commercial core toward state-defined strategic priorities, but an ascendant artificial intelligence (AI) cohort operates “policy-native” architecture, prioritizing state alignment over profit maximization to avoid becoming political liabilities. – PRC Tech Firms Practice Proactive Alignment – Jamestown
China/Taiwan
(Brandon Tran, Gerui Zhang – The Jamestown Foundation) The purge of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission (CMC) likely stemmed from disagreements with Xi Jinping on People’s Liberation Army (PLA) force modernization and development, suggesting that the PLA may not be ready for a Taiwan contingency in 2027. Despite a loss in combat-tested leaders, Xi may still push the PLA to act in the medium term due to his advanced age and his desire to backfill key positions on the CMC, regardless of the PLA’s readiness. PLA gray zone activities around Taiwan will likely continue as they are seen as crucial “dress rehearsals” for a Taiwan contingency, notwithstanding leadership changes at the top. – After the Purge: Reassessing the Risk to Taiwan – Jamestown
(Markus Garlauskas with contributions from Drew Holliday, Adam Kozloski, Nicholas Takeuchi, and Paul Vebber – Atlantic Council) The Aquatic Tiger wargame explored how long-range autonomous underwater vehicles (LRAUVs) could help the US deter or counter Chinese military action against Taiwan. LRAUVs showed promise for pre-conflict surveillance, mine countermeasures, and swarming attacks in chokepoints, but showed vulnerabilities in the shallow, constricted waters of the Taiwan Strait. LRAUVs would be useful contributors—not decisive—if deployed in large numbers, with advance planning, and integrated into broader US and allied military operations. – Aquatic Tiger: How long-range submarine drones could play a role in a Taiwan conflict – Atlantic Council
China/Russia
(Matthew Johnson – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has evolved into a functional, operational Eurasian architecture anchored in financial integration, technological cooperation, energy interdependence, and coordinated geopolitical positioning, reducing Western coercive leverage and institutionalizing parallel systems of trade and finance. By committing to mutual support on “core interests” and insulating cooperation from Western sanctions, the February 2022 “no limits” pact removed strategic ambiguity, tethered their war in Ukraine with the Taiwan theater conceptually, and transformed convergence into path-dependent coordination that deepened through wartime economic, military, and technological integration. From 2022–2025, this incipient bloc logic became operational and institutionalized. Through international platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, cross-border industrial mechanisms, financial insulation frameworks, expanded energy corridors, and synchronized military activity, Beijing and Moscow accelerated bureaucratic interoperability and normalized sanctions circumvention. Bloc alignment, structured around durable asymmetry, is now the baseline. Russia increasingly functions as a junior escalatory actor—economically dependent on the PRC for trade, technology, and battlefield inputs—while Beijing serves as stabilizer and ballast against sanctions pressure. As long as confrontation with the West remains the organizing principle of both regimes, this senior–junior Eurasian axis is likely to harden rather than fragment, complicating efforts to isolate either country. – Strategic Eurasianism: Xi and Putin Cement Bloc Alignment – Jamestown
Europe/Ukraine
(Ariana Gic, Gabrielius Landsbergis and Roman Sohn – RUSI) Europe’s red lines on support for Ukraine continue to invite Putin to destroy more of Ukraine and further destroy the international rules based order. While Ukraine shields the peace of NATO nations from Russia’s aggression, Europe’s political formula of ‘supporting Ukraine for as long as it fights’ is humiliatingly inadequate. To claim its geopolitical power, Europe must take action in Ukraine. When Ukrainians are asked what kind of support their country needs, most politicians in Europe prefer they do not answer honestly. Ukrainians are welcome to discuss military aid, financial support, increased sanctions, or even international justice for Russian perpetrators of war crimes, but the expectation of direct European military involvement in Russia’s war is a forbidden topic. It is a red line which makes friends of Ukraine uncomfortable, and friends of Russia in Europe furious. After 12 years of one of the bloodiest wars on the planet since World War II, Europe still expects Ukraine to defend against Russia’s war and genocide on its own. The firm rejection by European governments of even a hint of their possible military action in Ukraine remains Europe’s main geopolitical weakness. This also allows Moscow to believe it can achieve its genocidal objectives in Ukraine by prolonging its war and pushing it further, counting on Ukraine to run out of people and resources with which to defend itself. The future of a united Europe as a global power hinges on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia’s defeat can secure this future. This objective cannot be achieved by Europe staying out of the fight and outsourcing its protection from Russia to Ukraine. The sleeping giant of Europe can be awakened not by speeches at conferences, but by action that proves its strength. Europe’s power is defined by its ability to act in Ukraine. The first move of this awakened giant should be a Humanitarian Military Mission to help defend civilians and critical infrastructure – particularly nuclear facilities – from Russia’s war of annihilation. – Europe’s Power is Defined by the Ability to Take Action in Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute
Sri Lanka
(Phillip Cornell – Atlantic Council) Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil and gas artery—have triggered price spikes and shortages in Sri Lanka. The economic and social impacts are immediate—rising inflation, power outages, business closures, and agricultural disruption. Across South and Southeast Asia, countries face fuel shortages, rationing, and reduced industrial activity, while governments scramble to secure supply and curb demand. – Demand destruction has begun: What Sri Lanka reveals about the global energy crisis – Atlantic Council
