War in Iran/Middle East/Gulf and beyond
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) The European Commission has urged EU states to lower natural-gas storage targets and start refilling reserves gradually to curb demand, after the war in Iran disrupted key suppliers and triggered a surge in energy prices, the Financial Times reported on Saturday. – EU member states urged to lower gas-storage targets due to Iran war
(Al Arabiya) Saudi Arabia on Saturday denounced Israel’s strikes on Syrian army camps as “blatant Israeli aggression,” calling on the international community to intervene. – Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli strikes against Syria
(Daniel Bush, Paul Brown, Alex Murray – BBC) Iranian strikes on military bases used by the US in the Middle East caused about $800m (£600m) in damage in the first two weeks of the war, a new analysis shows. Much of the damage was caused in initial retaliatory strikes by Iran in the week after the US and Israel launched the war, according to a report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) and an analysis by the BBC. The full extent of the damage caused by Iranian strikes on US assets in the region is not clear. But the $800m in estimated damages to US military infrastructure – a figure that’s higher than has been previously reported – offers a picture of the steep costs to the US as the conflict drags on. – Iranian strikes on bases used by US caused $800m in damage, analysis shows
(Barak Ravid, Marc Caputo, Dave Lawler – Axios) President Trump said on Friday he is considering “winding down” the war with Iran without solving the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has said for several days that the war could end soon, but this is the strongest signal yet that he’s actively moving in that direction. If he does walk away without reopening the strait, the U.S. would be leaving other countries to clean up a hugely consequential economic quagmire. “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. – Trump considers “winding down” Iran war without opening Hormuz Strait
(Herb Scribner – Axios) Nearly a month into the Iran war, there are signs the conflict is poised to expand rather than conclude. Potential future events in the war — like escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or major changes Iran’s leadership — could determine when the conflict ends. The U.S. and Israel also have contrasting visions of the endgame, with Israel willing to endure more chaos to destabilize the regime, officials told Axios. “Our objectives are our objectives,” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said last week. “We’ll set the tempo of when those are met.” – When will the Iran war end? 4 quesitons for the war’s next phase
Belarus
(Rikard Jozwiak – RFE/RL) The United States announced on March 19 that it is easing sanctions on several Belarusian companies, including Agrorozkvit, Belaruskali, and its marketing arm, the Belarusian Potash Company, after a deal was agreed to release 250 prisoners being held in Belarus. The measures have been in place since 2021 when the regime of authoritarian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko forced a commercial jet en route from Greece to Lithuania to land in Minsk to detain Belarusian journalist Raman Pratasevich and his partner Sofia Sapega. The easing of sanctions and the prisoner release, the latest in a series of such moves, highlights a thaw in relations between Washington and Minsk that began with the start of the second term of President Donald Trump. RFE/RL takes a closer look at what effects these sanctions — particularly the easing of restrictions on Belarusian fertilizers — can have on both Minsk and globally, as the world faces ever-growing price hikes due to the war in Iran. – Belarus Could Boost Potash Exports After US Move, But EU Barriers, Logistical Hurdles Remain
France
(Hugh Schofield – BBC) Mayors for France’s major towns and cities will be chosen on Sunday, in the last vote before next year’s presidential elections. Excitement is especially high in Paris and Nice. The capital could shift to the right after 25 years under a Socialist-led coalition, if Rachida Dati comes from behind in the opinion polls to defeat Emmanuel Grégoire. And on the Riviera, a hard-right ally of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), Eric Ciotti, seems on course for victory. But in this second round of municipal elections, the biggest focus across the country is on the hard-left party France Unbowed (LFI). – Socialists battle to hold Paris in key mayoral elections in France
Global Trade
(Neil Irwin – Axios) If you only read the headlines, you might guess that global trade came to a standstill in the last year as the U.S. put into place a new tariff regime. You would be 180 degrees wrong. Trade flows proved surprisingly robust last year, with the imposition of high U.S. tariffs changing the patterns and volumes, but not upending the basic reality of a deeply interconnected world economy. That’s the upshot of two reports out this week, one from the World Trade Organization and the other from the consulting firm McKinsey. It reflects China rerouting its exports away from the U.S. and toward Europe and emerging markets — as well as the AI investment boom that created a surge in U.S. imports of semiconductors and related products. The WTO’s latest global trade outlook finds 4.6% growth in global goods trade last year, representing both AI-related products and front-loading by U.S. importers looking to avoid tariffs. – Global trade grew in 2025 despite Trump tariffs, two reports show
