(Institute for the Study of War)
Planning for a Post-Iranian Regime Reality: A newly established coalition of anti-regime Kurdish organizations outlined its vision for administering Kurdish-majority areas of Iran if the Iranian regime collapses, which reflects the potential for Iran to fracture if the regime were to collapse. Anti-regime Kurdish groups established the “Coalition of Political Forces in Iranian Kurdistan” on February 22 with the stated objective of achieving self-determination.
Iranian Nuclear Proposal: Iran reportedly offered Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)-like concessions in its nuclear proposal to the United States. An unspecified Arab diplomat told Israeli media on February 25 that Iran is willing to reduce its uranium enrichment level from 60 percent to 3.6 percent, which is close to the 2015 JCPOA’s 3.67 percent uranium enrichment limit.
Trump State of the Union Address: US President Donald Trump highlighted the threat of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs in his State of the Union address on February 24. Trump stated that the United States warned Iran after the June 2025 Israel-Iran War not to attempt to “rebuild [its] weapons program, and in particular nuclear weapons,” but that Iran “want[s] to start it all over again and is at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions.”
Iranian Military Exercises: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has recently conducted a series of military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and along Iran’s southern coast in preparation for a potential conflict with the United States or Israel around the Persian Gulf. The IRGC Ground Forces concluded a two-day exercise under the command of the Madinah ol Munawarah Operational Base in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on February 25.
Iranian Air Defense Systems: Belgium-based outlet Army Recognition assessed that Iran’s use of indigenous radars in its S-300 air defense systems would reduce the effectiveness of these systems. Israel destroyed the engagement radar of an Iranian S-300 in April 2024 and rendered Iran’s three remaining S-300 systems inoperable in October 2024.
Iranian Steps to Avoid a Decapitation Campaign: The Iranian regime is trying to limit disruptions to command-and-control and governance in the event of a potential US or Israeli decapitation campaign against senior Iranian leadership. The New York Times, citing six senior Iranian officials and three IRGC members, reported on February 22 that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has named four potential successors for each military and government post that he appoints.
Protests in Iran: Iranian university students held anti-regime protests for the fifth consecutive day on February 25. The economic conditions that triggered anti-regime protests in December 2025 continue to worsen.
ISIS Attacks in Northeast Syria: Islamic State (IS)-run media explicitly linked ISIS’s recently claimed attacks in northeastern Syria to the Islamic State’s February 21 call to action, which likely seeks to exploit conditions created by the Syrian government’s recent offensive to recruit fighters and expand ISIS networks. IS media has continued to leverage the Syrian government’s membership in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS and cooperation with the United States to try to boost ISIS recruitment among Syrians sympathetic to ISIS.
