From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: China; Epstein Files; Europe-Russia; Gaza; Iran; Iran-Middle East; Kazakhstan-Russia; Koreas; Kyrgyzstan; Libya; Maternal Death; Munich Security Conference (Latin America); Russia-Ukraine; Russia-US-Europe; Sudan; US-India (Climate Action)
China
(Youlun Nie – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has championed the low-altitude economy as a critical new engine for economic growth, yet the officially promoted market scale is significantly exaggerated. A severe lack of consumer-side demand renders the sector unsustainable. Its core applications are not economically competitive and long-term capabilities are constrained by technological bottlenecks and safety risks. Currently, the low-altitude economy relies on government investment, which is fiscally unsustainable. Even more dangerous is the exploitation of this concept by local governments for “asset fabrication,” artificially manufacturing bubbles. The West often exhibits excessive alarm regarding the PRC’s slogan-driven economic campaigns. Rather than a formidable competitive threat, the LAE represents a symptom of internal exhaustion—a speculative bubble engineered to absorb industrial overcapacity. – The Low-Altitude Economy’s Great Leap Upward – Jamestown
Epstein Files
(UN News) The large-scale disclosure of materials known as the “Epstein Files” has revealed “disturbing and credible evidence” of what independent human rights experts describe as a possible global criminal enterprise involving systematic sexual abuse, trafficking and exploitation of women and girls. In a statement on Monday, the independent experts – who serve in their individual capacities under mandates from the UN Human Rights Council and are not UN staff – warned that the alleged acts documented in the files could amount to some of the gravest crimes under international law. The reported conduct could amount to sexual slavery, reproductive violence, enforced disappearance, torture, inhuman and degrading treatment, and femicide, according to the experts. “So grave is the scale, nature, systematic character, and transnational reach of these atrocities against women and girls, that a number of them may reasonably meet the legal threshold of crimes against humanity,” they said. – Epstein files: ‘No one is too wealthy or too powerful to be above the law’; rights experts demand accountability | UN News
Europe – Russia
(Thomas Graham – Council on Foreign Relations) Europe is preparing for the prospect of war. Echoing other European leaders, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could attack NATO “within five years,” while German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius suggested that could happen by 2028–29. Apprehensions are most acute in the east, where people have experienced the brutality of Russian aggression within living memory. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistance that Russia has no plans to attack offers only cold comfort—he said as much before he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Europeans have good reasons for vigilance: Putin has repeatedly threatened dire consequences for states that support Ukraine, and his anti-European vitriol has escalated as the war rages on. Russian hybrid attacks have raised alarms across the continent. Deepening doubts about the U.S. commitment to Europe’s defense have only compounded fears that Putin will exploit Europe’s apparent weakness. Russia’s long history of westward expansion reinforces that concern. Whether it has expanded in search of security, to regain lost Russian lands, or to unify the Russian people—three narratives Putin has used to justify his invasion of Ukraine—does not matter to his victims. That the line dividing Russia from the West has not lain this far east since Peter the Great declared Russia an empire in 1721 only amplifies those fears. As Putin declared in justifying the seizure of Crimea in 2014, “Russia was backed into a corner and could retreat no further. If you push a spring to the limit, it’s bound to snap back.”. Yet rhetoric and history do not determine policy. A decision to attack Europe will emerge from a cost-benefit analysis grounded in the Kremlin’s assessment of Russia’s geopolitical and domestic circumstances. To be sure, the analysis will vary greatly between a massive invasion and a small-scale attack to test Europe’s resolve and slightly improve Russia’s strategic position—for example, an invasion of northeast Estonia to better guard sea and land approaches to St. Petersburg or an effort to create a land corridor to the Kaliningrad exclave. Nevertheless, given the domestic and geopolitical difficulties Russia will face in the years ahead, a deliberate invasion of Europe, even a small-scale one, appears less likely than prevailing fears suggest. – Right-Sizing the Russian Threat | Council on Foreign Relations
Gaza
(UN News) The UN has the funds and capacity to scale up relief and reconstruction operations in Gaza but does not have the necessary access to carry out these vital tasks, Alexander De Croo, the head of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), told journalists on Tuesday. Mr. De Croo, who chose Gaza for his first overseas visit since being appointed to the top job in November 2025, called for an expansion of access to the occupied territory for UN agencies to strengthen efforts to remove rubble and waste, provide shelter and medical equipment and evacuate patients. On Monday, Mr. De Croo visited Firas Market in downtown Gaza City, where around 370,000 tonnes of waste had piled up during the two-year war as garbage collection and sewage systems collapsed, turning it into a massive, foul-smelling landfill. – Humanitarian access to Gaza still insufficient for relief and rebuilding: UN development chief | UN News
Iran
(Council on Foreign Relations) Iran’s system of government is not quite a democracy, nor a theocracy. Founding Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini developed its animating doctrine, known as guardianship of the jurist, in the years before the Islamic Republic’s establishment in 1979. Khomeini posited that a just government was possible if religious scholars sat atop it to ensure consistency with Islamic law. This system was put into place with a constitutional referendum after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The organs of a modern republic—a unicameral legislature (the majlis), executive led by the president, and judiciary—were enveloped by a clerical system. (Most of Iran’s clerical hierarchy, however, remains outside this official structure, based in Qom rather than the capital, Tehran). Regime hard-liners have further consolidated power across these institutions in recent years. They won control of parliament in the 2020 and 2024 elections, neither of which was considered free or fair. The regime has often state-managed presidential elections in Iran. However, the 2024 election, triggered by the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi, yielded a surprise result, with Masoud Pezeshkian becoming the country’s first so-called reformist leader in two decades. Yet as antigovernment protests spread across Iran in 2026, Iranians were met with a severe crackdown that exemplified the outsized control the Supreme Leader’s orbit has over the country. – The Islamic Republic’s Power Centers | Council on Foreign Relations
Iran – Middle East
(Institute for the Study of War) US-Iran Negotiations: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the United States’ demands for Iran to halt uranium enrichment and limit its ballistic missile program in a speech on February 17. Khamenei’s speech coincided with the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva, Switzerland. Iran has presented several proposals to the United States that do not meet the United States’ demand for zero enrichment. Iran seeks significant economic relief in return for the limited nuclear concessions it has offered to make.
Protests in Iran: Some Iranians held anti-regime protests on February 17 despite the regime’s recent brutal crackdown on protesters, which highlights how some parts of the Iranian population remain extremely frustrated and disillusioned with the regime.
Iranian Security Forces Activity: Iranian security forces conducted a targeted raid in Chenar town, Asadabad District, Hamedan Province, on February 16, likely to preempt or disrupt some kind of anti-regime activity. The limited scope of the raid suggests that security forces were targeting a specific individual, network, or infrastructure in the town linked to anti-regime activity.
Iraqi Government Formation: Most of the Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework has agreed to rescind State of Law Coalition head and former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s nomination as prime minister designate if Maliki does not voluntarily withdraw his nomination in order to avoid US sanctions, according to a senior framework political adviser speaking to an Iraqi journalist on February 16. Maliki’s insistence on the premiership will probably force the framework to revoke his nomination.
The Iraqi Premiership: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani continues to vie for the premiership. It remains unlikely that the framework will select him, given many framework members’ long-standing objections to Sudani. Unspecified individuals close to Sudani suggested to Iraqi media on February 16 that Sudani’s control of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias is a “trump card.” This statement could reflect an effort by Sudani to use his purported control over the militias to gain US support for him to become prime minister amid US objections to Maliki.
Syrian Decentralization: The Syrian government transferred some authorities from the central government to governors and local officials on February 15, which may satisfy some of the Syrian Democratic Forces’ demands regarding decentralization. – Iran Update, February 17, 2026 | ISW
Kazakhstan – Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The new draft Kazakhstan constitution downgrades the status of the Russian language by specifying that Russian exists “alongside” Kazakh rather than sharing legal equality with it, a move upsetting Moscow and Kazakh nationalists for opposite reasons. This change reflects both demographic changes in Kazakhstan—Kazakhs now form more than 70 percent of the total and ethnic Russians fewer than 15 percent—and Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s increasing readiness to challenge Moscow. Russian commentators see this as the latest hostile act by Astana, something they say shows that Kazakhstan is moving along the same path as Ukraine and may require a similar and equally harsh Russian response to maintain Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “Russian world.” – Kazakhstan’s Downgrading of Russian Language Infuriates Moscow – Jamestown
Koreas
(Institute for the Study of War) North Korean succession: WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un likely intends for his daughter Kim Ju Ae, who is roughly 13 years old, to succeed him, according to the South Korean NIS. His daughter has become an increasingly public figure in recent years.
North Korea-Russia cooperation: Around 8,000 North Korean troops remain deployed around Kursk Oblast, Russia, and have performed fire support functions under Russian command, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.
Korean Peninsula nuclear issues: Russia is opposing South Korean efforts to build nuclear submarines despite reportedly enabling North Korea to develop the same capability. – Korean Peninsula Update, February 17, 2026 | ISW
Kyrgyzstan
(Sam Jones – The Jamestown Foundation) On February 10, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov removed the country’s second most influential figure, Kamchybek Tashiev, from his position as chairman of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), rupturing the “tandem” model that has governed the Kyrgyz Republic since Japarov and Tashiev came to power in 2020. Japarov simultaneously began purging Tashiev’s associates from security and government posts to dismantle his informal network, and instituted reforms to rein in the GKNB’s mandate and prevent any future security chief from amassing sufficient power to challenge the presidency directly. These moves signal Japarov’s intentions to build a personalist model of control ahead of next year’s presidential elections, allowing him to consolidate power on a larger scale than any of his predecessors. – Japarov Moves to Consolidate Power Vertical – Jamestown
Libya
(UN News) Migrants, refugees and asylum-seekers in Libya are enduring ruthless and systematic human rights violations, including killings, torture, sexual violence and trafficking, according to a new report published today by the UN human rights office, OHCHR. Covering the period from January 2024 to December 2025, the report documents what it calls an “exploitative model preying on migrants, asylum-seekers and refugees in situations of heightened vulnerability”, describing it as a “brutal and normalised reality” that has become business as usual in Libya. – Migrants and refugees in Libya subjected to ‘systematic’ abuse: UN report | UN News
Maternal Death
(UN News) Nearly two thirds of all maternal deaths worldwide occur in countries marked by conflict or fragility, according to a report released on Tuesday by the World Health Organization (WHO) and partners. The risk of a woman who lives in a country affected by conflict dying due to maternal causes is around five times higher for each pregnancy she undergoes compared to her peers in stable countries, according to new findings in the WHO report. In 2023 alone, an estimated 160,000 women died from preventable maternal causes in fragile and conflict-affected settings, that is six in 10 maternal deaths worldwide, despite these countries accounting for only around one in 10 of global live births. – Maternal deaths spike during war and instability, new report warns | UN News
Munich Security Conference (Latin America)
(Shannon K. O’Neil – Council on Foreign Relations) The crammed hallways of the Munich Security Conference thrummed this year with the usual suspects. And that highlights a problem for the nations of the Western Hemisphere. What began primarily as a transatlantic fest, with heads of state, defense ministers, national security advisors, and other panjandrums from Europe’s capitals and Washington joining business leaders and academics to advance security, has morphed into something both more global and more wide-ranging in subject matter. This year, for instance, more than 50 heads of state made an appearance, with entourages to match. Alongside European stalwarts were delegations from across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The “Global South,” in the nomenclature of the conference’s organizers, was on full show. The alarm sparked by the Trump administration’s assault on the liberal international order was doubtless part of the draw. Last year, the conference memorably provided a platform for US Vice President JD Vance to scold Europe for its “retreat” from democratic values and its free-riding on security. This time around, Secretary of State Marco Rubio came to deliver a more diplomatic version of the same. Yet missing in action was Latin America, the focus of the administration’s National Security Strategy and the locus of some of its greatest norm-busting. No head of state from a continent of more than 600 million people attended. – Latin America’s Munich No-Show Was a Big Mistake | Council on Foreign Relations
Russia – Ukraine
(Institute for the Study of War) Russian forces conducted another large, combined strike package against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on February 16 to 17 — the eve of trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Geneva.
Russian forces have been launching large strike packages in recent months in the days before and after bilateral and trilateral negotiations but are likely refraining from fully maximizing Russia’s strike capabilities in order to avoid upsetting US President Donald Trump.
Russian strike packages against Ukraine are dangerous regardless of their size.
Kremlin officials and Kremlin-affiliated media sources reaffirmed Russia’s unwillingness to compromise as trilateral talks started in Geneva on February 17.
Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev used escalatory language to try to push the West to stop the seizures of Russian shadow fleet tankers.
·Patrushev baselessly criticized Finland for preparing to attack Russia.
Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Pokrovsk. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb. 17, 2026 | ISW
(UN News) Civilian suffering shows no sign of letting up in Ukraine as the four-year-mark of Russia’s full-scale invasion nears amid attacks on energy infrastructure, blackouts and freezing temperatures, UN humanitarians warned on Tuesday. Speaking to reporters from a basement in Kherson, UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) representative in Ukraine Munir Mammadzade said that the frontline city remains “under constant fire,” with daily attacks destroying homes and critical infrastructure, as well as the services that children and families rely on. “I have been constantly hearing artillery shelling,” he said, speaking of yet another “massive, coordinated attack” which reportedly impacted civilian and energy infrastructure overnight. The city’s children’s hospital was attacked eight times on Tuesday morning, Mr. Mammadzade added. – Four years of war in Ukraine: Childhood has ‘moved underground’, displacement continues – UN humanitarians | UN News
Russia – US – Europe
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia hoped the February 13–15 Munich Security Conference (MSC) would expose rifts between the United States and Europe through disputes over approaches to nuclear arms, Arctic security, and Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio instead reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to European security, reinforcing trans-Atlantic unity. Russian media speculated that New START’s expiration and contention over Greenland would cast a shadow over the MSC. Discussions in Munich largely downplayed these issues, and the United Kingdom highlighted NATO solidarity through joint Arctic naval deployments. Russia did not try to demonstrate its military might to the dignitaries conferencing in Munich, bucking the Kremlin’s pattern of upping military pressure on Ukraine on the eve of peace talks. The lack of a new Russian offensive push is likely because of the depletion of troops from heavy casualties during the winter campaign. – Russia’s Hope for Trans-Atlantic Rift at MSC Disappointed – Jamestown
Sudan
(UN News) As the war in Sudan approaches a fourth year, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, and 123 partners appealed on Tuesday for $1.6 billion to support millions of people forced to flee the country in pursuit of safety. The 2026 Sudan Regional Refugee Response Plan (RRRP) aims to deliver lifesaving assistance this year to 5.9 million people across seven neighbouring countries: the Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, South Sudan and Uganda. The plan will continue to prioritize aid for roughly 470,000 new refugees who are expected to cross into these countries, as well as thousands more who remain in border areas and have received only the most basic assistance. – Sudan crisis: UN agency launches $1.6 billion appeal to support refugees in seven countries | UN News
US – India (Climate Action)
(Manjari Chatterjee Miller – Council on Foreign Relations) The Trump administration has just announced it will revoke a policy from the Obama era that declared carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases a threat to public health and welfare. That declaration of endangerment had served as the legal foundation for almost all climate regulations put in place since 1970 by the Clear Air Act, which regulates many sources of pollution such as power plants and motor vehicles. The revocation aligns with the administration’s skeptical approach to climate and energy norms. President Donald Trump has himself called climate change a “hoax” and green energy a “scam.” Since he took office in January 2025, the U.S. government has centered its climate and energy policy on expanding fossil fuel production while rolling back climate regulations and renewable energy support. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, following the principle that Biden-era climate regulations “[impoverished] Americans and [made] China rich,” provided the Trump administration with a blueprint for such policies: nearly two-thirds of Trump’s early executive actions mirrored proposals from Project 2025. The U.S. volte-face on climate and energy norms and global leadership has implications not just for the liberal international order but for countries such as India that have, in the past, been themselves recalcitrant on such norms. Today, particularly in comparison with the United States, India seems positively forward-facing, making an astonishing pivot on previous climate and energy policies while at the same time emphasizing its national and security interests. This turnaround has also led to tension with the Trump administration—particularly on oil energy and India’s reliance on Russian oil. – India, the United States, and Diverging Climate and Energy Norms | Council on Foreign Relations
