From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Artificial Intelligence; Colonial Rule; Global Food System; Israel-West Bank; Middle East; Munich Security Conference; Russia; Russia-Ukraine; Sudan; Trump’s Board of Peace; US-Europe; US-Iran
Artificial Intelligence
(Francisco Javier Varela Sandoval, Isabella Wilkinson, Alex Krasodomski, Rowan Wilkinson – Chatham House) The dominance of the US and China in AI development poses a significant conundrum for the rest of the world. For middle powers, the establishment of ‘sovereign AI’ strategies, which allow a country to influence, develop and deploy AI technology in line with national interests, may hold the key. This paper recommends and details four clear approaches that enable middle powers to gain increased control over AI: specializing in a particular part of the global AI supply chain; aligning with one of the AI superpowers; sharing sovereignty with other countries to amplify influence; or hedging against instability by using a range of AI capabilities from different countries. Global dependencies on US and Chinese technology are unavoidable, but increased sovereignty over the deployment of AI will allow smaller countries to develop their own technological paths that can prioritize the needs of their populations. – How middle powers can weather US and Chinese AI dominance | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Elijah Glantz and Pia Hüsch – RUSI) UK. Artificial Intelligence technologies for security purposes are widely associated with defence applications, from killer robots to drone targeting. Yet AI also offers a wide range of opportunities for law enforcement. As the pressure to analyse vast amounts of data increases for law enforcement officers amid a resource squeeze on policing, AI tools promise efficiency, speed and the hope to keep up with criminals. The case for greater use of AI in policing is summarised by Sir Stephen Kavanagh, former Executive Director at INTERPOL: ‘Criminal threats have moved on, and we haven’t. It is time for a new mindset: one that treats data and computer power as strategic assets’ – Police.AI – New Tech Tools for UK Law Enforcement | Royal United Services Institute
Colonial Rule
(UN News) More than 60 years after the UN launched its formal decolonization drive, Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday urged renewed commitment to completing the unfinished business of ending colonial rule. Since 1945, more than 80 former colonies comprising some 750 million people have gained independence. However, 17 Non-Self-Governing Territories remain on the UN list, home to nearly two million people. They range from Western Sahara in Africa to small island territories in the Caribbean and Pacific. –UN chief urges renewed push to complete decolonization as 17 territories remain | UN News
Global Food System
(UN News) Rising food prices and declining farm incomes are putting increasing pressure on the global food system, with up to 720 million people facing hunger last year, and billions more struggling to afford healthy diets. These numbers point to an even deeper crisis: in 2024, an estimated 2.3 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity, and chronic hunger affected 96 million more people than in 2015. Against this backdrop, senior UN officials called for urgent investment and innovation to transform global agrifood systems. These systems encompass everything from farming and fisheries to food processing, transport, markets and consumption – the full chain that brings food from field to table. “Agrifood systems are at the heart of progress in our societies,” said Lok Bahadur Thapa, President of the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), opening a special meeting in New York. “They are the thread that links the environmental, social and economic pillars of sustainable development.” – UN forum calls for overhaul of agrifood systems | UN News
Israel – West Bank
(UN News) UN Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned Israel’s decision to resume land registration procedures in a large part of the occupied West Bank, his Spokesman said on Monday. The development follows an Israeli cabinet decision from May 2025 and applies to Area C of the West Bank, which encompasses some 60 per cent of the territory. This will mark the first time since the 1967 occupation that Israel will begin registering land as state property following approval announced by the cabinet on Sunday. – Guterres deplores Israel’s move to resume land registration in the West Bank | UN News
Middle East
(Institute for the Study of War) Counter-ISIS Efforts in Syria: The Syrian government is transferring all residents from al Hol internally displaced persons camp in Hasakah Province to Aleppo Province and Iraq. The government will close the camp in the coming days. ISIS and other Salafi-jihadi groups will likely capitalize on al Hol’s closure to increase recruitment efforts among escapees and residents who may be released in the future.
US-Iran Negotiations: Some Iranian officials and media have suggested that the United States has softened its position on the issue of uranium enrichment. US officials have not indicated a shift in the United States’ position on this issue, however.
Iranian Internal Politics: Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi assessed on February 16 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani are maneuvering to consolidate their power and ensure their relevance in a post-Khamenei Iran. This assessment is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that different factions within the Iranian regime are vying for influence to determine future Iranian policy after the Israel-Iran War.
Iranian Regime’s Crackdown on Protesters: The Iranian regime has sentenced Iranians who participated in the recent protests to death and killed numerous detained protesters, according to human rights organizations and Iranian sources speaking to Western and Israeli media. – Iran Update, February 16, 2026 | ISW
Munich Security Conference
(Bronwen Maddox – Chatham House) Half the hall in Munich gave US Secretary of State Marco Rubio a standing ovation following his speech – out of relief at his declaration that ‘the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our own’. This at least was not another fight picked by the Trump administration with its NATO allies. But there was immediate unease too, at the explicit limits Rubio placed on American support for Europe and Ukraine. And non-European countries were furious at what they saw as a tribute to white European civilization and a call to protect it from the rest of the world. Rubio was followed by Wang Yi, Beijing’s top diplomat, who deployed stately phrases to describe China’s rivalry with the US, before erupting into a verbal fusillade against Japan, for its temerity to support Taiwan. – The West vs the West at the Munich Security Conference | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(Galen Lamphere-Englund and Petra Regeni – RUSI) Russia’s active weaponization of video games has become ingrained in its doctrine of hybrid warfare, resulting in loss of lives across continents. Recent revelations from Bloomberg demonstrate how foreign nationals are recruited online via popular military-simulation (milsim) games and Discord chats to fight for Russia in Ukraine. These attempts fit neatly within broader influence operations and cognitive warfare tactics leveraging video games. From propaganda mods and in-game recruitment campaigns, to creating Russian-only sovereign gaming platforms, these tactics speak to the political and cultural reality of online games as contested information spaces. As previously assessed by RUSI, the immersive, interactive and transnational nature of modern gaming builds tight-knit social spaces with less moderation than conventional social media. Despite being perceived as apolitical, gaming ecosystems offer Moscow ample room to exercise hybrid tactics against audiences abroad. In effect, platforms designed for entertainment are converted into battlefields for influence and recruitment. – How Russia Turns Gamers into Fighters | Royal United Services Institute
Russia – Ukraine
(Institute for the Study of War) Russian officials are unlikely to deviate from their original war demands during the upcoming February 17 to 18 trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian talks in Geneva, Switzerland.
Russia may try to exploit another temporary moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure to falsely claim that Russia is making a concession.
Russia appears to be investing in centralized incubators for drone technology and is setting up bespoke roles and units to support specific drone capability development efforts. These drone capability development efforts include supporting drone units’ ability to conduct tactical tasks that support Russia’s battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign, as well as drone-based air defense.
The Kremlin appears to be adapting its tactics to conduct sabotage attacks in Europe.
At least one Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile did not cause damage to Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site in Astrakhan Oblast in January 2025.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 16, 2026 | ISW
(UN News) As Ukraine prepares to enter the fifth year of the full-scale Russian invasion on 24 February, UN monitors say harm to civilians has “demonstrably worsened”, while energy attacks and freezing temperatures are making it harder for displaced families to return. “More people are killed and injured each year. Millions have only a few hours of electricity per day. Hundreds of thousands are suffering without heating in freezing temperatures,” said Danielle Bell, Head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU). In 2025, the total number of civilian casualties was 31 per cent higher than in 2024 and 70 per cent higher than in 2023, with over 15,000 civilians killed since the conflict began. Early 2026 has signalled a continuation of this trend, according to the latest report by the HRMMU. – As conditions worsen in Ukraine, refugees struggle to return | UN News
Sudan
(UN News) The Tawila camp for internally displaced in Sudan’s war-torn Darfur region is home to more than half a million people who live in makeshift huts of sticks, hay and plastic sheeting. Some families have survived in those harsh conditions for months. Among them, 17-year-old Doha and her brothers and sisters reached Tawila after a three-day long journey from El Fasher by foot and donkey cart, exhausted and frightened. Home in the key Darfur city had become too dangerous. Food was scarce. Health facilities were destroyed. School, once the centre of Doha’s days, was no more. “This girl caught our eye because she was smiling,” Eva Hinds, spokesperson for the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in Sudan told UN News. “And she so desperately wanted to speak English. I’m always so struck when I see someone who is beaming in the middle of such a hardship environment.” – Sudan: Thousands cling to a fragile hope in makeshift tents | UN News
Trump’s Board of Peace
(Eric Alter – Atlantic Council) The idea behind Trump’s Board of Peace shares traits with several earlier United Nations-led transitional administrations. One important lesson to take from previous cases ranging from East Timor to Kosovo is balancing top-down control with local leader involvement. While the board will likely move faster than the consensus-driven United Nations, it will need to navigate common pitfalls of its donor-led coalition-of-the-willing model. – The promise and peril of Trump’s Board of Peace – Atlantic Council
US – Europe
(William Dixon – RUSI) The German Chancellor’s opening at the 2026 Munich Security Conference stated what Europe’s defence and security leaders already knew – the ‘old world order’ of the Transatlantic Alliance is dying. Mertz’s address echoed the French President’s fiery speech at Davos in January. Emmanuel Macron’s declaration of Europe’s preference for the ‘rule of law to brutality’ – aimed not at Russia or China, but at America – captured an atmosphere of open hostility. But during this past weekend of meetings in Munich, what was once stunned disbelief is now turning to resolve. Donald Trump and his second administration are accomplishing what seventy years of French or German diplomacy could not. By treating the EU not as a partner but as a delinquent debtor, the US has inadvertently supplied the one ingredient the European project always lacked: necessity. The humiliation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, the hurried Russo-US Alaska Summit aftermath, and finally the territorial threat to Denmark, have inadvertently solved the continent’s oldest problem: the lack of a unifying existential threat. Life under the American umbrella was too comfortable but the security shocks of the last twelve months – from watching the US bypass Brussels, to the partition of security interests with Russia, to treating a NATO ally’s territory as real estate – have acted as a radical accelerant. Trump is not humiliating Europe into submission but hardening it. – Making Europe ‘Great’ Again: US Hostility and the New World Order | Royal United Services Institute
(Chatham House) Munich Security Conference. The main speaker, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, adopted a different tone from Vice President JD Vance, who shocked many in the audience last year when he delivered a verbal broadside against Europe at the same conference. But does it signify a shift in the Trump administration’s newly assertive stance, or was it the same message in a different wrapping? In a recording session in a side room amid the hustle and flow of the conference, they also discuss innovations in defence technology and drone development, the resilience of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, what level of support Ukraine can expect from Europe, and whether European companies and policymakers will respond effectively in the face of increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers. – Rubio to Europe: A softer tone than Vance. But same message? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Iran
(Michael Rozenblat – Atlantic Council) The possibility of a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran is on hold, at least for now, as the two countries have begun talks mediated by Oman. However, a strategic breakthrough from these talks—which according to US President Donald Trump should be resolved in the coming month—remains unlikely without substantial concessions by at least one party on topics previously considered out of the scope of negotiations. Iran maintains that its ballistic missile program and the support it provides its regional proxy network are non-negotiable—precisely the areas where the Trump administration demands drastic concessions. That means diplomacy could stall or break down completely. So what will Trump, who has been steadily building up military forces in the region, do then? – Six reasons why Trump should choose the military option in Iran – Atlantic Council
