Indonesia–Australia Security Treaty: Middle powers choosing consultation over blocs

(Emirza Adi Syailendra – Lowy The Interpreter) Leaders of Indonesia and Australia have framed the Jakarta Treaty 2026 as a response to “challenging times”. They refer to a more volatile regional environment, amid intensifying major-power competition, evolving US and Chinese defence postures, and anxieties about overdependence or exposure to great‑power coercion. The treaty is thus less about balancing a single adversary than about institutionalising consultation and cooperation mechanisms that safeguard decision‑making autonomy in a contested Asia‑Pacific, including commitments to consult in the event of a threat and to deepen security coordination. This logic aligns with broader shifts in middle‑power strategy. At the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the “old order is not coming back” and argued that “middle powers must act together, because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” linking this to the need for greater strategic autonomy in energy, critical minerals, finance, and supply chains. Carney’s remarks encapsulate a wider impulse among secondary states to manage systemic volatility collectively, without being fully absorbed into rigid bloc politics. – Indonesia–Australia Security Treaty: Middle powers choosing consultation over blocs | Lowy Institute