From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Africa; Hamas; Japan; New START; Russia; Sudan; US-China-Mexico-Canada; US-Deep-Sea Mining-International Waters; US-Iran; US-WTO-Global Trade; Venezuela; West Bank
Africa
(Tom Bonsundy-O’Bryan – Atlantic Council) The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) tournament that took place around the turn of the year was record breaking. It drew 1.3 million fans to stadiums across Morocco and generated a 90 percent surge in commercial revenue compared to the previous tournament. Globally, it raked in record viewership numbers. Both Senegal and Morocco rank among FIFA’s global top twenty, with high expectations heading into this summer’s World Cup in North America. Yet decades after Brazilian soccer legend Pelé predicted an African nation would win the World Cup by 2000, African soccer has not fulfilled its potential. Soccer represents Africa’s most potent soft power asset and largely untapped economic engine, generating $625 million in 2025. Major powers have recognized Af – rican soccer’s strategic value: China has invested in around ninety Sub-Saharan African soccer stadiums since the 1960s, including $600 million on four facilities in Angola. Qatar spent more than one billion dollars on its Aspire Academy and launched Football Dreams, the largest talent search in soccer history, scouting millions of African youth for potential star players. – African soccer needs digital innovation, not just investment – Atlantic Council
Hamas
(Elliott Abrams – Council on Foreign Relations) Who will prevent Hamas from continuing its rule of the half of Gaza it controls, from rearming, and from rebuilding its terror capabilities? The International Security Force is supposed to be the answer, but it is already clear that there are few troop contributors and even those have said they will not fight Hamas. – Pressure Points: The Only Way to Disarm Hamas | Council on Foreign Relations
Japan
(Philip Luck – CSIS) Japan’s rare February 2026 snap general election delivered a decisive result. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, not only retained power but also expanded its parliamentary majority, securing 316 seats and achieving a two-thirds supermajority that confers unusual legislative authority. The economic implications of this election result are significant for Japan and the global economy, now that Takaichi likely has the political mandate to embark on significant and much-needed fiscal reforms. These longer-term economic considerations, however, fall outside the scope of this analysis. This commentary instead focuses on a more immediate lesson: How, in the lead-up to the election, Beijing’s economic coercion backfired, consolidating rather than undermining Takaichi’s support, and what this reveals about the limits of coercive tools in resilient democracies. The campaign unfolded amid heightened tensions with China, triggered by Takaichi’s unusually direct public comments linking Japan’s security to stability in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing responded with a familiar mix of diplomatic protests and economic pressure. The intent was clear: raise the political costs of Japan’s stance and deter further rhetorical or policy alignment with the United States over Taiwan. Instead, the pressure coincided with rising domestic support for Takaichi and a strong electoral mandate for her government. While Chinese coercion was by no means the sole cause of Sunday’s electoral outcome, the episode demonstrates the limits of economic leverage as a tool of diplomacy by other means. Economic coercion is rarely about economic harm per se; it is intended to generate political rather than economic costs, creating pressure for leaders to acquiesce. Yet in resilient democracies like Japan, if coercion is recognized for what it is, a naked tool of influence, it frequently produces the opposite effect. It hardens public attitudes, makes backing down politically untenable, and shrinks the political space for compromise. Japan’s election offers a clear example of this dynamic and an important lesson for U.S. policymakers in this new era of geoeconomics. – Takaichi Landslide Shows Limits of Chinese Economic Coercion
(Yuko Nakano and Nicholas Szechenyi – CSIS) On February 8, Japanese voters went to the polls in a snap election for the lower house of the National Diet (Japan’s House of Representatives) and delivered a sweeping mandate to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The election was a high-stakes gamble for Takaichi, who inherited a minority government in both houses of the Diet just four months ago but rolled the dice to capitalize on her popularity in the polls. The decisive win gives Takaichi greater latitude to advance her domestic policy agenda and bolsters her diplomatic bona fides ahead of an upcoming summit with President Donald Trump. – Takaichi Dominates Japan’s Lower House Election
New START
(Council on Foreign Relations) The last remaining treaty between the United States and Russia limiting nuclear weapons expired on February 5, 2026. It marks the end of an era of arms control and limits on both the size and status of U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons, which the treaty capped at 1,550 deployed strategic systems each. However, reports that the two superpowers have agreed to keep talking and to develop a follow-on agreement bring optimism. It will take hard, detailed work, but the United States and Russia could find ways to maintain some degree of predictability. Yet even if a mutually beneficial political agreement can be reached, both Washington and Moscow seem poised to deploy more nuclear weapons, risking an arms race. At their best, arms control agreements provide predictability and help the parties involved avoid dangerous and costly military buildups. New START did both until on-site inspections ceased during the COVID-19 pandemic and never restarted. The treaty was designed for only one five-year extension, which President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in 2021. Russia’s actions since, including its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, directly contributed to New START’s sputtering conclusion. But this end of an era of arms control does not impede future negotiations or commitments between the world’s two nuclear superpowers—or even preclude applying the lessons from decades of cooperation between the United States and Russia to U.S. relations with China. As New START expires, Erin D. Dumbacher, CFR’s Stanton nuclear security senior fellow, spoke with four arms control negotiators and nuclear policy experts to analyze what a world without limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons could look like and where U.S. foreign policy on nuclear weapons issues should look next. – Nukes Without Limits? A New Era After the End of New START | Council on Foreign Relations
Russia
(Kassie Corelli – The Jamestown Foundation) In 2025, the Kremlin’s security services initiated a record number of treason and espionage cases against opponents of Moscow’s war against Ukraine, including citizens living outside of Russia. From 1997 to February 2022, there were only 196 total sentences under these charges; in 2025 alone, at least 468 people were convicted on such charges. The Kremlin is widening repression beyond activists, targeting ordinary citizens for minor acts such as donations to Ukraine. In April 2025, the Russian State Duma authorized trials in absentia against individuals living abroad, allowing the security services to exert pressure even on those located outside the country. When refused protection from foreign countries, anti-war Russians are at the mercy of the Russian authorities, even if the person resides abroad. The Russian intelligence services happily exploit this vulnerability, recruiting ordinary citizens. – Russian Authorities Launch More Repression Against Dissidents – Jamestown
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the Chair of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Military Committee, stated in December 2025 that the organization is considering more proactive countermeasures and aggressive responses to Russia’s hybrid warfare. A significant majority of Russians want to see an end to the war, which proves that the Kremlin is losing its information war. Russia’s diminished Olympic presence highlights its loss of international legitimacy, reinforcing a broader narrative of decline. Russian military gains in Ukraine come at a high human cost, while hybrid warfare tactics increasingly provoke stronger EU and NATO responses, suggesting that the Kremlin’s confrontational choices are accelerating Russia’s degradation rather than securing military victory. – Russian Hybrid Warfare Backfiring – Jamestown
(Will Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk – Atlantic Council) With the full-scale invasion of Ukraine set to enter a fifth year, there are growing indications that things are not going according to plan for Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the front lines of the war, Russia continues to suffer catastrophic casualties while failing to achieve any meaningful breakthroughs. Despite holding the battlefield initiative throughout 2025, the invading Russian army managed to capture less than 1 percent of additional Ukrainian territory. Putin also has cause for mounting concern on the home front. The Russian economy is showing signs of strain amid sanctions pressure and other negative factors including falling oil prices and declining energy export revenues. Meanwhile, the recent US raid in Venezuela and subsequent seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic Ocean have underlined how the war in Ukraine is diminishing Moscow’s ability to project power internationally. This deteriorating picture is now fueling debate over how much longer Russia can maintain the current invasion. It is also raising more fundamental questions about the fragility of the Putin regime. Given the Russian state’s multiple twentieth century implosions, such speculation is inevitable. However, there is currently little to indicate that the country is close to repeating the collapses of 1917 and 1991. – The Putin regime faces mounting pressure but is still far from collapse – Atlantic Council
Sudan
(UN News) As the brutal Sudan war shows no signs of ending, UN human rights chief Volker Türk on Monday called on the international community to intervene immediately to stop more mass killings and other flagrant war crimes against civilians. “We can only expect worse to come” unless action is taken to halt the bloodshed, Mr. Türk told Member States at the Human Rights Council in Geneva, as he reiterated his call for the extension of an arms embargo from Darfur to include all of Sudan. Rival militaries from the national army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia have been battling for control of the country for nearly three years. Something must be done to address the “continuous inflow of weapons”, the High Commissioner for Human Rights insisted, after recounting testimonies of survivors of atrocity crimes in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, by paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) who overran the city last October. – Sudan: UN rights chief says worse is to come without international action | UN News
US – China – Mexico – Canada
(David M. Hart – Council on Foreign Relations) The global auto industry is in the midst of a revolution that poses a serious threat to the United States. China’s producers have taken the world by storm, and their high-tech electric vehicles (EVs) are transforming the industry’s century-old core product. The Joe Biden administration responded to Chinese competition by adopting tariffs and regulations that exclude Chinese imports. The Donald Trump administration has retreated further, turning its back on EVs altogether. The U.S. auto industry, however, does not face this threat alone; it has been tightly bound up with those of Canada and Mexico for decades. But these North American partners have begun to diverge. Chinese imports into Mexico surged last year. During a January visit to Beijing, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed to admit a small number of Chinese imports into the country for the first time ever. These developments may mark a turning point for the U.S. auto industry that could ultimately isolate it from a global market increasingly dominated by China. – What Canadian and Mexican EV Imports From China Mean for the United States | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Deep-Sea Mining – International Waters
(Elisabeth Braw – Atlantic Council) In April 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order permitting deep-sea mining in international waters. This is contrary to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and might mean that the United States has violated customary international law. The executive order raises questions regarding the legal status of any mining that might take place under US license, particularly whether insurers and companies based outside the US would be willing to participate. – Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea – Atlantic Council
US – Iran
(The Soufan Center) U.S.-Iran talks that began Friday, in Oman, reduced the potential for a regional conflagration but did not narrow the gaps between the two sides. Trump appears to have decided to use Tehran’s weakness, following a major uprising last month, to obtain concessions on core U.S. national security issues rather than pursue regime change. U.S. and Iranian negotiators agreed to further meetings, but Iran insists the agenda remain limited to nuclear issues and exclude Iran’s ballistic missile programs, its support for regional armed factions, or its killings of dissidents. Trump is still threatening military action if negotiations fail, and U.S. forces continue to assemble in the region to expand the options available. – U.S.-Iran Talks Ease Tensions, but Achieve Few Tangible Gains – The Soufan Center
US – WTO – Global Trade
(L. Daniel Mullaney – Atlantic Council) Even as it disrupted global trade with tariffs in 2025, the Trump administration carried out a concurrent and quieter approach to address underlying trade problems. These underlying problems—and the potential ways to address them—are laid out in detail in the administration’s bilateral agreements and in its communications at the WTO. Engagement on those issues in bilateral discussions and at the WTO is the way to make 2026 a constructive year for world trade. – How 2025’s US tariff shocks can give way to constructive reforms in 2026 – Atlantic Council
Venezuela
(UN News) A draft amnesty law in Venezuela aimed at granting immediate clemency to people jailed for participating in political protests or criticizing public figures, has been welcomed by a UN commission of experts – although they have emphasised the Venezuelan people need to be at the centre of the process. The amnesty is aimed at promoting peace, democratic coexistence and national reconciliation as the South American country enters a new era following the seizure of former President Nicolas Maduro by the United States. It passed unanimously on 5 February by Venezuelan legislators in the first of two readings. The amnesty “offers an opportunity to provide justice and alleviate the suffering of the many people who have been unlawfully detained for political reasons in Venezuela,” said Alex Neve, a member of the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Venezuela. “This law has the potential to contribute to restoring rights and repairing Venezuela’s social fabric, but the voices of the countless Venezuelans whose rights have been violated in the country’s prisons, as well as the civil society organizations who have assisted and defended them, must be at the centre of this process,” Mr. Neve said. – Proposed amnesty law offers political prisoners in Venezuela an ‘opportunity’ | UN News
West Bank
(UN News) UN Secretary-General António Guterres voiced grave concern on Monday over the reported decision by the Israeli security cabinet to authorize a series of administrative and enforcement measures in Areas A and B in the occupied West Bank. The measures would make it easier for Jewish settlers to take over Palestinian land, thus expanding Israel’s power in the territory, according to media reports. The UN chief warned that the current trajectory on the ground – including this decision – is eroding the prospect for the two-State solution, according to a statement issued by his Spokesperson. – West Bank: New Israeli measures further erode prospects for two-State solution | UN News
