The last few weeks in Iran have retaught us lessons we already knew — lessons written in blood, courage, denial, and cruelty. We were reminded that the clerical regime’s ineptitude in governing is matched only by its aptitude for repression and mass murder. Moreover, events have once more demonstrated that although the overwhelming majority of Iranians is utterly fed up with clerical rule and capable of astonishing bravery, it remains outmatched by a state whose survival strategy is simple and ruthless: kill enough people, fast enough, to terrorize the rest into submission. We saw again that the opposition in exile remains deeply fragmented, its leaders often lacking experience in organizing civil resistance and, more troublingly, an appreciation for the regime’s willingness to slaughter its own citizens. We witnessed people, long known for their patriotism, who have grown so desperate that some now openly say they would welcome foreign military intervention — though we have no reliable way of measuring how widespread that sentiment truly is. And once again it became clear that Iranians cannot rely on the president of the United States — or any foreign power — to protect them from getting slaughtered, no matter how clearly or repeatedly such assurances may have been made.
Iran’s coming reckoning: Regime collapse is likely — democracy is not – Middle East Institute
