After more than two weeks of sustained public protests against the regime, the Iranian government has grown increasingly desperate to quell what has metastasized into a nationwide demonstration. Escalatory measures have included the use of live ammunition against unarmed protesters, widespread arrests, and promises of quick trials and executions for those found guilty. To date, the number of demonstrators killed is believed to exceed 2,600, but some estimates suggest the figure is much higher. Despite this and an internet blackout extending for more than a week, the protests have yet to cease, and debates on whether the ongoing domestic turmoil may finally bring down the regime in Tehran are pervasive. Amid much discussion on how the United States might react to these events, on January 13, President Donald Trump issued a message over social media encouraging protesters to remain resilient and proclaiming “help is on its way.” This led to immediate speculation that the US was preparing for military action in Iran — a perception seemingly validated the following day, as reports surfaced that the US military had evacuated some personnel from al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar in the wake of a meeting between Trump and key US government principals. With signs pointing to the possibility of some sort of looming kinetic strike against Iran, the situation warrants at least a brief assessment of the fundamental factors pertaining to strategic intent, operational choices and limitations, and potential outcomes of such a policy course. The following analysis considers those issues in the context of the strikes carried out against Iran in June 2025 by Israel and the US during Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer, respectively (frequently referred to as the 12-Day War). That examination concludes that, in the current context, the military options available to the US are more limited than mid-last year, the benefits less predictable, and the strategic risks heightened. Although Washington also has non-military responses, or the option of doing nothing, at its disposal — and indeed, Trump himself raised the prospect of using tariffs to heighten the pressure on Iran, and the US has already imposed new sanctions — those alternatives are outside the scope of this assessment.
Potential US military strikes on Iran: This won’t be another 12-Day War – Middle East Institute
