From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Artificial Intelligence; China; China-US-Venezuela; Greenland-US-Europe; Iran; Portugal; Russia; South Korea; Syria-US; Taiwan-US; UK; US-Critical Minerals
Artificial Intelligence
(Atlantic Council) The events of 2025 made clear that the question is no longer whether artificial intelligence (AI) will reshape the global order, but how quickly—and at what cost. Throughout the year, technological breakthroughs from both the United States and China ratcheted up the competition for AI dominance between the superpowers. Countries and companies raced to build vast data centers and energy infrastructure to support AI development and use. The scramble for cutting-edge chips pushed Nvidia’s valuation past five trillion dollars—the first company to reach that milestone—even as concerns mounted over circular financing and the question of how much the AI boom is founded on hype versus reality. Meanwhile, policymakers grappled with the balance between safety, security, and innovation and how to manage possible labor disruptions on the horizon. As 2026 begins, rapid AI integration threatens to inject even more unpredictability into an already fragmented global order. Below, experts from the Atlantic Council Technology Programs share their perspectives on what to expect from AI around the globe in the year ahead. – Eight ways AI will shape geopolitics in 2026 – Atlantic Council
China
(Alisha Chhangani – Atlantic Council) China continues to advance its digital yuan project, implementing new features, and is pushing forward on the cross-border payments platform Project mBridge. Here are the top lines to know: China’s digital yuan (the e-CNY) has grown over 800 percent since 2023, becoming the world’s largest live central bank digital currency experiment, with cumulative transaction value exceeding $2.3 trillion by late 2025; to increase domestic adoption of the e-CNY, China has adopted a strategy of combining interest-bearing features and stablecoin-like functionality—while keeping the digital yuan sovereign and regulated; meanwhile, Project mBridge transaction volume has surged to $55.49 billion, a 2,500-fold increase over early-2022 pilots, with the e-CNY making up over 95 percent of total settlement volume. – What to watch as China prepares its digital yuan for prime time – Atlantic Council
China – US – Venezuela
(James Kynge – Chatham House) Just days after the US attack on Venezuela, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio put Washington’s definition of its sphere of influence beyond doubt. ‘This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live – and we’re not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States’. China has a staunchly different view. Months before the US attack on Venezuela, Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, told a forum in Beijing that Latin America and the Caribbean are not anyone’s ‘backyard’. – Attack on Venezuela highlights growing US–China rivalry in Latin America | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(The Soufan Center) Just hours before the U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had met with a senior diplomatic delegation from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Washington’s intervention in Venezuela has raised questions not only about the future of PRC economic and political influence in the country, but also the broader region and ultimately Beijing’s efforts to build what they call “South–South Cooperation” to counterbalance the U.S. globally. Domestic foreign policy commentary in China surrounding recent events has centered on recalibrating political risk in Latin America by moving away from infrastructure investment toward a greater emphasis on trade. The PRC is likely to capitalize on the opportunity to condemn U.S. action in Venezuela and position itself as the defender of international order in order to shore up support globally. – Venezuela’s Impact on Beijing’s Global Ambitions – The Soufan Center
Greenland – US – Europe
(Liana Fix and Benjamin Harris – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump talked of purchasing Greenland in 2019 during his first time in office, but Europeans have only now realized how serious he is about acquiring it by any means necessary. At first, Europeans deployed the same playbook they used to safeguard NATO during the alliance’s June 2025 summit at The Hague. To avert the worst of tariffs for the European market and prevent a breakdown of U.S. support for Ukraine, leaders engaged the president directly and sold him a victory. Announcing favorable trade deals or new defense spending successes allowed the administration to claim victory and move on from the issue, before negotiations and reality set in and complicated the picture. – Everything but Territory: Europe’s Response to Trump’s Greenland Threats | Council on Foreign Relations
Iran
(Sanam Vakil – Chatham House) After weeks of intense and destabilizing protests across Iran, marked by sweeping internet and communications blackouts, a severe security crackdown, and reports of unprecedented deaths and repression, US President Donald Trump has kept Tehran and the wider region on tenterhooks by repeatedly threatening military strikes should the violence escalate further. The demonstrations in Iran should not be seen as routine or normal outbursts of public frustration. Rather, they have been among the most serious challenges the Islamic Republic has faced in years, spreading across cities, drawing in diverse social groups and prompting a level of state violence that has underscored how threatened the leadership feels. By warning Iran’s leaders against killing demonstrators or resorting to executions, Trump made clear that internal repression is no longer insulated from external consequences. Even though the White House pulled back from military action on Wednesday night, the threat of force is still very much on the table. This reinforces the president’s approach of keeping the possibility of escalation alive while preserving the element of surprise and his ability to act when and how he chooses. – Trump’s objective is to force Iran into strategic submission | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) Just when you thought President Donald Trump had enough on his plate—between Russia and Ukraine, Gaza, Venezuela, Greenland, and the ongoing challenge of China—Iran rears its head as well. An estimated 2,000 to 12,000 people have been killed thus far in the protests that first broke out at the end of December. That’s a broad range of casualties which underscores how little reliable information we have about what’s going on in Iran, given the regime’s crack down on journalists, the internet, and cell phone networks. – Reflections on the Protests in Iran | Council on Foreign Relations
(Brookings) As the Islamic Republic continues its violent crackdown on political protesters, Brookings Foreign Policy scholars examine whether this crisis will prove to be the tipping point for Iran’s government. – Is Iran on the brink of change? | Brookings
Portugal
(Andrew Bernard – Atlantic Council) With the incumbent president term-limited, the field of candidates is the widest it has been in decades. There are five viable contenders for the presidency, three of whom are not backed by or affiliated with the traditional center-left and center-right parties. Polling indicates that no candidate is likely to get a majority in the first round of voting, which would trigger Portugal’s first presidential runoff election since 1986. – Why Portugal’s upcoming presidential election has echoes of 1986 – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Anna J. Davis – The Jamestown Foundation) A cargo ship sailing from St. Petersburg allegedly damaged an undersea telecoms cable in the Baltic Sea on December 31 after dragging its anchor along the seabed in an attempted act of sabotage. Russian forces sabotaging subsea cables and pipelines have become a regular threat across the Baltic Sea and the Arctic regions. Damaging undersea infrastructure is only one element of Russia’s broader campaign to reshape the security environment along the frontline of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia needs its war against Ukraine to continue, as it provides the Kremlin with a convenient scapegoat for aggressive actions against NATO states. With a meaningful peace agreement, Moscow would lose the plausible deniability it relies on to mask its offensive behavior by claiming it was unintended or by blaming Ukrainian forces. – Russia Targets NATO Frontline States – Jamestown
South Korea
(Sean Tan – RUSI) He was so close to making history, but the moment never came. Chan Sung Jung, revered worldwide as The Korean Zombie, came closer than almost any male athlete to delivering East Asia its first UFC championship. In three consecutive bouts, he unleashed a seven-second knockout, claimed a ‘Submission of the Year’ victory and fought tooth-and-nail with one of mixed martial arts’ all-time legends. But even these remarkable feats could not spare him from South Korea’s military service, which tore him from the Octagon for nearly four crucial years at the height of his career. – Dimmed Stars: South Korea’s Draft Weakens its Soft Power | Royal United Services Institute
Syria – US
(Neil Quilliam – Chatham House) Syria is at risk of becoming US President Donald Trump’s first outright major foreign policy failure. Tensions between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – both US partners – recently broke out into open fighting in Aleppo. Meanwhile, US-brokered security talks between the Syrian government and Israel are faltering. If the US can’t resolve these two issues, Syrians will pay the price. But while Trump’s approach to diplomacy excels at creating moments that command attention, he has rarely supported processes that turn these openings into durable agreements. Instead, Trump would benefit from Europe’s expertise and experience to develop, oversee and implement a detailed plan. European states should step up, show the US their true value and help Syria step back from the brink of renewed conflict. – Trump’s Syria policy is at risk of unravelling | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Taiwan – US
(Dennis Yang – The Jamestown Foundation) initial responses in Taiwan to the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) have been divided, largely in line with stakeholders’ political persuasions. Those in President Lai’s administration have welcomed the document’s large number of mentions of Taiwan, the removal of language referring to a U.S. “one China Policy” and not supporting Taiwan independence, and the commitment to “denying aggression” in the first island chain. Opposition Kuomintang voices, as well as some aligned with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), have voiced concern about the NSS. They worry that the strategy’s focus on the Western Hemisphere, coupled with the administration’s apparent softening in tone toward Beijing, could lead to a “strategic retreat” from Taiwan. U.S. emphasis on burden sharing for a Taiwan contingency puts additional pressure on Taiwan to increase its self-defense capabilities and cooperate more with Indo-Pacific allies. – Taiwan’s Cautious Optimism on U.S. National Security Strategy – Jamestown
UK
(Aybars Tuncdogan – RUSI) MI6’s new chief, Blaise Metreweli, recently warned that the ‘front line is everywhere’. In a separate speech, the Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, argued that ‘our whole nation’ must step up. Taken together, these remarks signal that the UK is now operating in a hybrid threat landscape – ‘a space between peace and war’, as Metreweli put it – where remote cyber operations and local cyber-physical attacks, including some that leverage insider access, sit alongside more traditional military risks. In that hybrid threat landscape, adversaries are likely to reach first for tools that disrupt daily life and economic activity rather than for conventional warfare, which tends to sit higher on the escalation ladder. Yet our current definitions of critical infrastructure, still focused mainly on utilities such as electricity grids and power plants, do not adequately account for the many other bottlenecks that can now be exploited to disrupt society – some of which are so fragile that significant disruptions can occur even without malicious activity. – Mass Criticality: Rethinking Critical Infrastructure in the UK | Royal United Services Institute
US – Critical Minerals
(Christopher Vandome – Chatham House) Following US action in Venezuela, and in the context of President Donald Trump’s continuing imperialistic rhetoric on Greenland, the strategic context for critical minerals in 2026 has shifted in a radical way. Trump’s emphasis on spheres of influence as his administration’s primary foreign policy creates an alarming risk with respect to its policy on natural resources: that genuine concerns about the resilience of critical minerals supply chains will be used to add a veneer of commercial or strategic reasoning for aggressive foreign policy moves. On 14 January, Trump announced that he will personally negotiate agreements with foreign nations to secure minerals supplies. The priority the president places on reliable supply chains is understandable. And a US strategy built on international partnership and targeted market interventions will lead to resilience, by balancing national production and international diversification. But the Trump administration’s ambitions in Greenland indicate disregard for matters of sovereignty and international law. That will undermine efforts at building partnerships and contribute to market volatility and divergence – at a time of significant variability of supply constraints across different commodities that will continue through 2026. – If Trump wants 2026 to be a year of critical minerals collaboration, he must stop imperialist rhetoric on Greenland | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
