US-North Korean Relations Worsen: North Korea is likely to continue its “self-defensive” nuclear development following the US military operation against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3. North Korea’s fears of “Western aggression” will likely reduce the likelihood of renewed US-North Korea dialogue.
Inter-Korean Relations Worsen: North Korea alleged that South Korean drones violated its airspace on January 10, which Pyongyang may use to further anti-South Korea narratives. South Korea denied North Korea’s accusations, which is consistent with the Lee Jae Myung administration’s de-escalatory posture.
North Korean Ballistic Missile Tests: North Korea launched at least two “supersonic” ballistic missiles on January 4. The timing of the launch may signal Pyongyang’s intention to continue its military development amid US actions in Venezuela and PRC-South Korean dialogue.
Korean Peninsula Update, January 13, 2026 (Institute for the Study of War)
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