Artificial intelligence (AI) is entering a decisive phase—one defined less by speculative breakthroughs than by the hard realities of governance, adoption, and strategic competition. As AI systems move from experimentation to widespread deployment, policymakers face mounting pressure to translate abstract principles into enforceable rules, while managing the economic and security consequences of uneven adoption across countries and sectors. For the United States and its partners, the challenge is no longer whether AI will reshape society but how and under whose rules. In this collection of perspectives, six Council on Foreign Relations tech fellows examine the forces that will shape AI’s trajectory in 2026. Together, they explore the frictions between regulation and innovation, the quiet but consequential spread of AI across civilian and military institutions, and the intensifying geopolitical contest—particularly with China—over standards, markets, and strategic advantage. Their analyses underscore a common theme: Decisions made in the coming year will help determine where responsibility, power, and opportunity ultimately concentrate in the AI era.
How 2026 Could Decide the Future of Artificial Intelligence | Council on Foreign Relations
