Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12, 2026 (Institute for the Study of War)

The Russian people are increasingly feeling the effects of the Kremlin’s continued prioritization of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launched on the night of January 8 to 9 struck a Ukrainian defense industrial enterprise in Lviv City, which is consistent with the available visual evidence.
Dozens of shadow fleet tankers off the coast of Venezuela have reportedly switched to using Russian flags in recent months.
Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide weapons and military equipment to Ukraine.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on January 12.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12, 2026 | ISW

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