Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2026 (Institute for the Study of War)

Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed that Russian forces conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8 to 9, likely as part of the Kremlin’s reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin likely targeted the westernmost part of Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile to deter Europe and the United States from providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted a long-range combined drone and missile strike on the night of January 8 to 9 that resulted in massive power outages, particularly in Kyiv Oblast.
The US Navy seized another oil tanker with links to Russia that was attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 9, 2026 | ISW

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