Iran’s long-standing era of strategic patience appears to be ending. A newly articulated doctrine of preemption—dangerously vague and publicly declared—suggests a regime that sees growing risk in restraint and is now prepared to play a far more volatile game. In an unprecedented declaration, Iran’s Supreme National Defense Council has reserved the right to launch preemptive strikes based on what it calls ‘objective signs of threat.’ This is not mere rhetorical flourish. Buried in the 6 January statement’s dense, Quranic-inflected language is a genuine doctrinal shift—from reactive deterrence to what Tehran describes as ‘active and unpredictable deterrence.’ The implication is stark—Iran may now believe the costs of waiting outweigh the risks of acting first.
Iran is rewriting its rules of war—and raising the stakes for everyone | The Strategist
