It is clear that the counterterrorism focus of the past two decades has become deprioritized in favor of great power competition, reflected in the dwindling resources for kinetic and non-kinetic counterterrorism and prevention efforts and shifting of personnel and bandwidth to other national security priorities. In 2026, al-Qaeda (AQ) and Islamic State (IS), as well as their various global franchises and provinces respectively, will continue to exploit conflict zones and ungoverned spaces to expand their geographic scope and operational tempo. In 2026, cartels and gangs targeted by the Trump administration after their Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) classification could seek to engage in horizontal escalation and commit attacks in the United States. 2026 could be the year when drone expertise migrates to a Western country, where terrorists seek to incorporate unmanned aerial systems into their operational planning, either for surveillance and reconnaissance or for an attack on a densely populated gathering or soft target.
Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2026? – The Soufan Center
