From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: China-Gulf of Aden; Emerging Markets/Global Cooperation; GenAI/Information Ecosystem; North Korea-South Korea-US; Turkey-Israel; US (Climate Action); US-Colombia; US-Greenland; US-Venezuela (and beyond); Yemen
China-Gulf of Aden
(Yu-cheng Chen, Yang Shang-wei-The Jamestown Foundation) The 46th and 47th Gulf of Aden escort task groups of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) set consecutive records for deployment length, suggesting a deliberate shift from high-frequency rotations to extended tours. The escort mission is increasingly being reconfigured into a low-density, long-duration batch-deployment model. Rising near-seas operational demand (in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea) has created a force-locking effect, shrinking the pool of high-end surface combatants available for distant deployments. At the same time, the Red Sea crisis has raised the cost and risk of task-group handovers, incentivizing the PLAN to keep in-theater units on station longer. Improved sustainment capacity at the PLA’s Djibouti support base enables longer forward presence but Beijing continues to pursue a selective escort posture that preserves operational and political autonomy rather than joining coalition strike operations. This reflects continued constraints in munitions replenishment and risk tolerance. – Near-Seas Force Locking Reshapes Gulf of Aden Naval Missions – Jamestown
Emerging Markets/Global Cooperation
(Børge Brende, Bob Sternfels-World Economic Forum) Building resilience has become a core priority for firms and governments, especially in emerging markets. A new Resilience Consortium white paper, developed in collaboration with McKinsey & Company and informed by insights from more than 270 executives, finds that preparedness is improving, but many firms in emerging markets still lack the capabilities needed to operate amid increasing disruption. Closing these gaps requires coordinated action by governments, businesses and multilateral development banks. – In an age of disruption, how can we strengthen resilience in emerging markets? | World Economic Forum
GenAI/Information Ecosystem
(Almar Latour, Bill Ready-World Economic Forum) Generative AI models that scrape proprietary data and creative work without providing fair compensation threaten the media ecosystem, say CEOs of Dow Jones and Pinterest. Leaders must prioritize ownership through licensing agreements that respect intellectual property and reward original content creators. Leaders are gathering at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 to explore how the ethical use of AI and other emerging technologies will translate into solutions for real-world challenges. – How do we protect our information ecosystem? | World Economic Forum
North Korea-South Korea-US
(Edward Howell – Chatham House) Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s address on 31 December revealed few details of North Korea’s policy priorities for 2026. Unusually, neither South Korea nor the United States featured in the speech. Instead, the North Korean Supreme Leader focused on the importance of domestic patriotism and loyalty, and the need to further economic development. With the Ninth Party Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea expected to take place early this year, Kim will likely wait until then to outline his country’s domestic and foreign policy objectives in greater detail. What is clear, however, is that 2026 will see a growing focus on two key questions. – North Korea in 2026: Will US and South Korea push for talks succeed? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Turkey-Israel
(Burcu Ozcelik – RUSI) As Turkish and Israeli planners increasingly frame their rivalry as an interconnected, multi-theatre contest, the margin for miscalculation is narrowing. – From Syria to Somaliland: Turkey-Israel Competition Reshapes Region | Royal United Services Institute
US (Climate Action)
(Amy Harder-AXIOS) President Trump on Wednesday announced plans to withdraw the U.S. from dozens of global organizations, including the United Nations climate change agencies. Why it matters: It’s among the biggest and most extreme steps this administration has taken to retreat from the global stage and pull back foreign spending. – Trump pulls US from global groups including UN climate change agencies
US-Colombia
(Barak Ravid-AXIOS) President Trump spoke on Wednesday with Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro and the two said they agreed to meet at the White House soon. Why it matters: It was the first between the two leaders. The call was an attempt to de-escalate tensions between the U.S. and Colombia after a war of words between Trump and Petro that included threats of using military force. Driving the news: Earlier this week during a press gaggle, Trump said an operation to depose Petro, whom he accused of involvement in cocaine trafficking, “sounds good to me.” A day earlier, Trump said the leftist leader needed to “watch his ass.” – Trump, Peto hold call, Colombian leader to visit White House after “disagreements”
US-Greenland
(Anna Wieslander – Atlantic Council) Following the recent US operation in Venezuela, the Trump administration has revived the idea of the United States taking Greenland, and it has not ruled out using US military force to do so. The Danish prime minister has responded by suggesting such a move by the United States could lead to the end of NATO, the most successful alliance in history. A collapse of NATO over Greenland would be contrary to US national interests as defined in the Trump administration’s own recently published National Security Strategy. – Trump’s quest for Greenland could be NATO’s darkest hour – Atlantic Council
US-Venezuela (and beyond)
(Charles A. Kupchan-Council on Foreign Relations) As Donald Trump’s America First grand strategy evolves, it confronts a mounting tension between rhetoric and reality. Trump’s instincts, as well as those of his MAGA base, are neo-isolationist—yet his policies are anything but. American forces remain on station across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Trump has bombed Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen, and attacked alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific. He recently attacked Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and then vowing the United States would “run” the country. Trump has suggested that Colombia, Cuba, Iran, Mexico, or Greenland could be next. In practice, the president’s policies smack of neo-imperialism, not neo-isolationism. – Venezuela and Beyond: Trump’s ‘America First’ Rhetoric Masks a Neo-Imperialist Streak | Council on Foreign Relations
(Christopher Hernandez-Roy-CSIS) The events of the past weekend mark a decisive inflection point in Venezuela’s long-running political crisis and in the United States’ approach to coercive diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere following the November release of the U.S. National Security Strategy that proclaims a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. Following a brilliantly executed plan to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, President Donald Trump’s declaration that the United States would “run” Venezuela (later clarified by Secretary of State Marco Rubio as meaning Washington would run Venezuela policy), signals a deliberate departure from democracy-centered regime change toward a model grounded in extracting economic, security, and geopolitical concessions through military coercion, or gunboat diplomacy. Rather than seeking immediate legitimacy through elections or a rapid handover to the democratic opposition, the administration has chosen to prioritize order, control, and enforceable outcomes aligned with its views of U.S. national interests. Whether this strategy leads to a transition or to the continuance of the Venezuelan regime with a new leader remains to be seen. – From Regime Change to Regime Management: Washington’s Venezuela Strategy
(Melanie Hart-Atlantic Council) The ouster of Nicolás Maduro allows China to blame anything that goes wrong in Venezuela going forward on the United States, as it casts Washington as an unreliable hegemon. China was unable to revive Venezuela’s oil industry despite billions in investments, so it’s unclear how US companies will fare. Some Chinese observers think Washington just walked into another quagmire on par with Afghanistan. – Why Maduro’s removal could ultimately benefit China – Atlantic Council
(Chris Aylett – Chatham House) In a press conference following the US attacks on Venezuela, and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, US President Donald Trump announced that American oil and gas companies would invest in the Venezuelan oil sector and extract the ‘tremendous amount of wealth’ in the ground. For the world’s leading military power to assert the right to develop the resources of another sovereign nation is extraordinary: a further step away from an international system based on rules and norms, towards one in which might makes right. But the American president sees economic opportunity. – President Trump’s ambition to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector will be challenging, especially if prices continue to fall | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Chatham House) Host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Professor Marc Weller, Director of Chatham House’s International Law Programme; Laurel Rapp, Director of the US and North America Programme; and Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America. They discuss the failure of regional diplomacy that preceded the 3 January 2026 attack by the US on Venezuela, the tentative response of the international community in its aftermath, the domestic impact on American politics, historic precedents like the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and how it is likely to influence Russia and China’s actions in their regions. – Does Venezuela usher in an era of might is right? Independent Thinking podcast | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Yemen
(Farea Al-Muslimi – Chatham House) In the closing days of 2025 Yemen experienced another dramatic reversal in its already convoluted war. After a decade of joint military intervention, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates found themselves on opposing sides of a conflict they had once waged together. The rupture was triggered when the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) launched a sweeping campaign to seize control of eastern Yemen, capturing the vast governorates of Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra, which together account for more than half of Yemen’s landmass. – Oman, eastern Yemen, and the fragile geometry of neutrality | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
