Iranian Ballistic Missile Program: Iran is likely prioritizing ballistic missile production due to both organizational inertia within the Iranian defense apparatus and the need to restore deterrence in what it views as an ongoing war with Israel. Iranian defense officials view ballistic missiles as a critical piece of their defense strategy. A hypothetical Iranian decision to abandon the ballistic missile program would be antithetical to the way that Iranian commanders view their capabilities and relative strengths.
Israeli Threat Perceptions: Iran’s ability to produce ballistic missiles at scale only six months after the end of the Israel-Iran War in June 2025 is causing Israeli anxieties over Iranian capabilities and intent to attack Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to brief US President Donald Trump on options for US involvement in potential Israeli strikes against Iranian missile sites during his December 29 visit to the United States. Israeli intelligence agencies do not believe Iran’s current missile production pace requires urgent military action within the next few months, but warn it could become a more urgent issue later in 2026.
IRGC Missile Exercise: Reports about a possible Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force missile exercise coordinated across multiple bases in Iran have also contributed to Israeli fears of a rising Iranian ballistic missile threat. IRGC-affiliated media reported on December 22 that the IRGC Aerospace Force launched missiles as part of its missile exercise in unspecified locations in five provinces. The regime may have been rehearsing the synchronization and coordination of large scale missile strikes from bases spread across the country through the exercise.
Syrian-Turkish-SDF Negotiations: Senior Turkish and Syrian officials met in Damascus on December 22, very likely to discuss the Syrian Defense Forces’ (SDF) response to a recent proposal that will facilitate the SDF’s integration into the Syrian army as three divisions and smaller brigades. It is unclear whether Turkish officials have moderated their red lines on the terms of the SDF’s integration at this time.
US Strikes in Syria: US Central Command (CENTCOM) struck more than 70 ISIS sites across the central Syrian desert on December 19 and 20 near Palmyra in Homs Province, Maadan in Raqqa Province, and in the desert regions of Deir ez Zor Province. The recent US strikes targeting ISIS in Syria illustrate how US cooperation with the Syrian government enables the United States to deny ISIS sanctuary in government-controlled territory. ISIS previously used Assad-held areas west of the Euphrates River as a sanctuary largely free from persistent US interference.
Iran Update, December 22, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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