From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Strategic Outlook; Bondi Beach Terror Attack-ISIS; Indonesia; Iraq; Malaysia; Malaysia (Sabah); Malaysia-BRICS; Middle East-US; Philippines; Russia-Ukraine; Tunisia-US; US (Extremism); US (National Defense Authorization Act); US-China; US-Venezuela
Strategic Outlook
(Michael O’Hanlon-Brookings) Visionary thinking about how to build a more stable and secure world flourished in the aftermath of the Cold War, but has largely stalled over the last dozen years in the United States. The shock of 9/11, Russia’s revanchism, China’s rise, and a deteriorating international security environment have made long-term thinking seem like a luxury. Populism in the United States and other countries adds further to the challenge. Yet this paper argues that today’s transnational dangers are too great to let strategic imagination be crowded out by traditional great-power rivalries. It also contends that some of the immediate causes of those rivalries are, in principle, addressable, if policymakers engage them creatively and energetically. – A vision and policy agenda for a safer world | Brookings
Bondi Beach Terror Attack-ISIS
(Bruce Hoffman-Council on Foreign Relations) Evidence that the Islamic State allegedly inspired the attack that killed at least fifteen people at a Hanukkah event in Australia could spur new concern about the reach of the terrorist group six years after it was defeated militarily. Australian authorities say that flags and explosive materials linked to the father and son who mounted the attack points to the influence of ISIS. The attack comes at a time when several alleged terror plots in Europe have reportedly been foiled. The resilience of the ISIS ideology and ongoing concerns over extremist violence put an added burden on security officials to safeguard the many public events occurring at year’s end. – The Bondi Beach Shooting Shows ISIS Threat in Australia and Beyond | Council on Foreign Relations
Indonesia
(Made Supriatma – FULCRUM) The series of fatal floods that have struck three provinces in Sumatra have laid bare a troubling feature of Prabowo Subianto’s administration: its lack of preparedness and capacity to respond to crisis. Triggered by tropical cyclone Senyar, the disaster has left at least 1,016 dead, 217 missing, more than 5,400 injured and over 624,670 people displaced. This catastrophe was foreseeable. Several days before Senyar made landfall (from 25 to 30 November), the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) had issued clear warnings about its impact. Yet neither the central government nor regional authorities took meaningful preventive measures. – Indonesia’s Slow Disaster Response: President Prabowo Constrained by His Own Agenda | FULCRUM
Iraq
(Hajar Bashir Sadoon, Mohammed Tatarkhan – The Washington Institute) The emergence of a new political landscape in Iraq marks an important moment in restoring stability on this front and resetting the country’s trajectory. The system established after 2003 was predicated upon consensual democracy, with decisionmaking power shared between various sectarian and ethnic groupings. This trend was reversed as Arab Shia parties and factions gradually managed to consolidate and accumulate state power at the expense of other ethnic and sectarian groups on the pretext of asserting Iraqi sovereignty and organizing the affairs of state. Concurrently, Iran’s role in shaping Iraq’s political and security domains increased considerably amid a corresponding decline in U.S. influence. One consequence of this was the collapse of the Kurdish, Shia Arab, and Sunni Arab consensus that had constituted the backbone of the post-2003 restructuring of the Iraqi state with American assistance. – Restoring Direction: Iraq’s Renewed Political Path | The Washington Institute
Malaysia
(Syaza Shukri – FULCRUM) Malaysia has successfully transformed halal governance from religious compliance into a strategic tool of soft power. Through the Department of Islamic Development Malaysia (JAKIM) and the Halal Industry Development Corporation (HDC), halal became both a moral brand and an economic driver across food, finance, tourism, cosmetics, and logistics. – Islamic Soft Power: Malaysia Well-Positioned to Consolidate its Global Leadership on Halal Branding and Governance | FULCRUM
Malaysia (Sabah)
(Arnold Puyok – FULCRUM) The long-anticipated 17th Sabah state election has concluded with predicted and yet surprising results. The heightened “Sabah First” rhetoric — a political slogan and sentiment prioritising Sabah’s autonomy, interests and leadership by local-based parties — was less decisive than expected. The sentiment surrounding the “Sabah First” slogan belies the fact that the divided politics of the state will continue. With 1.7 million voters choosing from a record 22 parties and 596 candidates, the ballot resembled a democratic marketplace — rich in options but fragmented in direction. While some view this as a recipe for instability, others interpret it as part of Sabah’s ongoing political evolution, in search of a model distinct from neighbouring Sarawak, whose relative stability is often credited to the dominance of local-based parties and entrenched elites. Yet beneath the surface of this crowded contest, the battleground coalesced around a few key rivalries. Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Warisan, Perikatan Nasional (PN), and Barisan Nasional (BN) competed in Bumiputera constituencies. GRS, Parti Solidariti Tanahairku (STAR), United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO), and Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (PKDM) in non-Muslim Bumiputera areas. The ethnically mixed and plurality seats saw open contests among all the key parties. The latter represent seats where no ethnic group commands more than 60 per cent of the population. Despite internal tensions and allegations of corruption, GRS still emerged as the largest bloc, securing 29 seats (Table 1). What accounted for GRS’s victory? Was it the effectiveness of the “Sabah First” narrative, or a genuine surge in the coalition’s popularity? A closer look at the results, especially GRS’s net swing from 2018, suggests that the coalition’s success owed less to increasing voter support than to structural advantages: incumbency, vote-splitting among opponents, and candidates with strong personal followings. – Sabah First? 2025 State Election Shows Voters Want Results Not Slogans | FULCRUM
Malaysia-BRICS
(Isabelle Chua, Francis E. Hutchinson – FULCRUM) Under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia has continued to pursue its long-held foreign policy of “strategic equidistance”. In particular, Kuala Lumpur’s recent application to join the international grouping BRICS bears Anwar’s personal imprimatur. Malaysia’s “strategic equidistance” is driven by factors such as the country’s colonial past, small population and land size, and outward-oriented economic model. Yet, while constraints and incentives are often predetermined, leaders can also influence their nation’s foreign policies via their preferences and values. This is especially true for Malaysia, where prime ministers can be “chief architects” of foreign policy. – Building BRICS? Anwar’s Worldview and Malaysia’s Foreign Policy | FULCRUM
Middle East-US
(Elizabeth Dent, Dennis Ross – The Washington Institute) The Trump administration’s new policy approach to the Middle East, outlined in the just-released National Security Strategy, effectively shifts the U.S. focus from military presence, counterterrorism, and security integration to “partnership, friendship, and investment.” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s November visit to Washington vividly demonstrated this shift, shaped as it was by high-level meetings, an investment forum, and a long list of agreements on expanding cooperation in these areas. Yet implementing these agreements will require something the U.S. government currently lacks: a regulatory architecture to govern the initiatives that have now been placed at the center of cooperation with regional partners. For the new strategy to succeed, the Trump administration’s statecraft must catch up to its aspirations, with a focus on modernizing U.S. export control systems, upgrading investment screening tools, and developing a transparent framework for critical minerals. – Closing the Regulatory Gap in Trump’s Middle East Strategy | The Washington Institute
(Paul Salem, Brian Katulis, Jason H. Campbell, Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, Natan Sachs, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Karen E. Young, Alex Vatanka, Iulia-Sabina Joja, Charles Lister, Gönül Tol, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Colby Connelly, John Calabrese – Middle East Institute) Following another year of pivotal developments and transformational change, the Middle East could be poised to turn the page on many of its long-running conflicts and sources of instability. But lasting fruits of the processes begun in 2025 will require a determined, intentional focus by regional actors and the United States. Given current trends, MEI experts weigh in on where the region may be headed in 2026. – Unfinished business will drive the Mideast agenda in 2026 | Middle East Institute
Philippines
(JC Punongbayan – FULCRUM) The fact that the Philippines is at the receiving end of countless typhoons every year is undeniable. But a miserable mix of corruption and the failure to execute and implement a slew of flood control projects has given the country the perfect storm. In the span of just one week, the Philippines was pummelled by two devastating typhoons. Typhoon Tino (Kalmaegi) made landfall on 4 November 2025, leaving a trail of destruction across the Visayas Islands and Palawan, with at least 232 people dead. Five days later, the even stronger Typhoon Uwan (Fung-wong) made landfall in Luzon Island. – Flood Control in the Philippines: When Corruption Bedevils Climate Change Mitigation | FULCRUM
Russia-Ukraine
(Brookings) Sanctions have long been an important component of the foreign relations toolkit, but the global landscape in which they operate is changing. The response to Russia’s war in Ukraine has involved a complex set of economic statecraft measures—spanning energy, finance, and export controls—and has highlighted both the power and the limits of sanctions in an era of major-power competition and rapid technological change. In this piece, Brookings experts weigh in on how sanctions are being used today, what their effects have been, and how shifts in geopolitics and global markets are shaping their future. In short: Can sanctions change the course of conflict? – Can sanctions change the course of conflict? | Brookings
Tunisia-US
(Sabina Henneberg-The Washington Institute) Amid mounting domestic pressure on President Saied, the Trump administration should take modest but useful and forward-looking steps like lifting tariffs, supporting less-politicized trade projects, and otherwise backing the people’s vision for a more prosperous future. – Tunisia’s Growing Protests Open a Door for Low-Cost U.S. Initiatives | The Washington Institute
US (Extremism)
(The Soufan Center) On Monday, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the arrests of four individuals in connection with an alleged plot to attack multiple sites in California on New Year’s Eve, including two U.S. companies, as well as immigration agents and vehicles. The individuals were identified as members of the “Turtle Island Liberation Front” (TILF), “a far-left, pro-Palestine, anti-government, and anti-capitalist group,” as described by the Justice Department. Experts have been warning about a blending of grievances on the left, similar to what some analysts call ‘salad bar terrorism,’ ideological convergence, or composite violent extremism. The United States government needs to be concerned about all types of ideologically and politically motivated violence, no matter which side of the spectrum it emanates from. – Left-Wing Terror Plot Planned for New Year’s Eve Disrupted by U.S. Law Enforcement – The Soufan Center
US (National Defense Authorization Act)
(Atlantic Council) On Wednesday, the US Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2026, sending the Pentagon’s annual policy bill to President Donald Trump’s desk. The bill—running to more than three thousand pages and authorizing more than $900 billion in spending—covers all corners of the defense policy landscape. Below, our experts, many of whom worked on Capitol Hill and in the Pentagon, delve into the text to dig out the most important elements for a range of US policy priorities. – Your expert guide to the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act – Atlantic Council
US-China
(Shijie Wang – The Jamestown Foundation) Chinese assessments of the U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) see it as confirmation of hegemonic decline, strategic retrenchment, and a shift to an evolving “neo-realist” posture that sees engaging with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as unavoidable. The official response has been minimal, as the PRC seeks to preserve negotiation space for a potential bargain at the April 2026 Trump-Xi summit. PRC analysts are weaponizing the document’s framing of Taiwan to argue the U.S. views it merely as a geopolitical asset rather than a democratic partner. Interpreting the “Trump Corollary” and rhetoric on European civilizational decline, Beijing aims to fracture U.S. alliances by portraying Washington as a transactional power that treats partners as liabilities. – Beijing Sees Opportunity in U.S. National Security Strategy – Jamestown
US-Venezuela
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) Since early September 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has authorized more than twenty lethal strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean Sea. The strikes are part of an escalating pressure campaign against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, whom U.S. officials accuse of being the leader of a drug cartel that the State Department designated a foreign terrorist organization in November. In recent weeks, Washington significantly increased its air and naval presence in the region as part of Operation Southern Spear, a U.S. military campaign that it says targets drug trafficking in the Caribbean. – Operation Southern Spear: The U.S. Military Campaign Targeting Venezuela | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) “Venezuela is completely surrounded.” On Tuesday evening, US President Donald Trump announced that the US military would impose a “total and complete” blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into or out of Venezuela. The move is targeted at Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and his regime, but it could also have wider effects. Below, Atlantic Council experts answer four pressing questions. – What Trump’s Venezuela oil blockade means for Maduro and the world – Atlantic Council
