From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: China-Arctic; Europe-Russia; Ghana; Iran; Iraq; Latin America and the Carribean-US; Russia; Russia-Ukraine-US-Europe; UK-Europe-Ukraine-Russia; Ukraine-Latin America and the Carribean; US (National Security Strategy); US-Venezuela
China-Arctic
(Riva Panchal – The Arctic Institute) The Arctic has re-emerged as a critical axis of 21st-century geopolitics. This transformation is driven by the accelerating effects of climate change and the strategic recalibrations of major powers seeking to access the region’s untapped potential. China’s entry into the Arctic is particularly significant. Despite being a non-Arctic state, China has increasingly positioned itself as an indispensable stakeholder in Arctic development. The state’s presence in the Arctic is neither incidental nor opportunistic. It is a strategic outcome of long-term planning grounded in the logic of economic statecraft, adaptive diplomacy, and a deliberate shift in global governance norms. Its Arctic ambitions are tightly interwoven with the strategic logic of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), from which the “Polar Silk Road” (PSR) concept derives. The PSR reflects China’s long-term vision: to integrate the melting Arctic into global trade routes, energy corridors, and governance frameworks. – China’s Adaptive Diplomacy and Economic Statecraft in a Fragmented Arctic Order | The Arctic Institute – Center for Circumpolar Security Studies
Europe-Russia
(Calvin Bailey – RUSI) Russia’s hybrid campaign against Europe since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine shows that war in the 2020s is not defined by the moment tanks cross borders. Conflict today is a continuum, one in which hostile states use non-kinetic, unattributable means to degrade the ability of an adversary to function long before conventional forces engage. The West still tends to treat these actions as ‘pre-war’, or something separate from conflict itself. They are not. They are part of an escalatory strategy aimed at undermining and degrading our deterrence logic. This makes it difficult to ascertain where Europe is on the ‘spectrum of conflict’ with Russia. We may not be exchanging fire, but our infrastructure, airspace and people are still subject to Russian aggression. – Are We at War with Russia? How Warden’s Rings Map Russia’s Hybrid Strategy | Royal United Services Institute
Ghana
(Joseph Asunka – Atlantic Council) Civil society and independent media are the backbone of Ghana’s democracy: Their roles as watchdogs, notably real-time monitoring and publication of polling-station election results, has strengthened credibility of election outcomes. Judicial independence remains fragile, with public trust in the judiciary dropping by 20 percentage points since 2011. Limited job prospects for Ghana’s growing population of educated youth present a significant threat to its democratic consolidation. – Delivering justice and jobs is the real test of Ghana’s storied democracy – Atlantic Council
Iran
(The Soufan Center) The water crisis in Iran has escalated into a profound political and security problem with supply levels running alarmingly low. This acute emergency is the culmination of decades of flawed policy, overly ambitious agricultural goals, and a five-year drought aggravated by climate change. Central to Iran’s water supply collapse, many analysts argue, is what has come to be known as Iran’s “Water Mafia” — a network of political, military, and business officials that have profited from dam projects, water transfers, and agricultural expansion, often at the expense of the environment and equitable access. The crisis is also producing internal security pressures as water scarcity has historically prompted protests, such as the 2021 demonstrations in Khuzestan that were met with deadly force, and protests in Isfahan in March where demonstrators set fire to a water transfer station that diverted water to other provinces. – Water Crisis in Iran Puts Pressure on Leadership to Find a Viable Solution – The Soufan Center
Iraq
(Hayder Al-Shakeri – Chatham House) In Iraq’s 11 November election, parties and figures associated with the Tishreen protest movement failed to win seats in parliament. The Tishreen movement emerged in 2019, demanding reform of Iraq’s political system. Dozens of civic and reform-oriented MPs subsequently entered parliament after the 2021 election, raising hopes that they could press for reform from within the political system. These hopes have been dashed by the results of the 2025 election. An uneven political playing field and sustained pressure on non-establishment MPs have pushed Tishreen-aligned actors back to the margins of formal politics. – Iraq 2025 election: Reform candidates pushed out by a system that rejects change | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Latin America and the Carribean-US
(Antonio Garrastazu and Henrique Arevalo Poincot – Atlantic Council) Democratic backsliding, transnational organized crime, and authoritarian influence are driving insecurity and migration across Latin America and the Caribbean. At the same time, weak rule of law and entrenched kleptocratic networks are stifling economic growth and enabling criminal organizations. To push back, the US must shift to a broader investment-driven foreign policy that mobilizes public-private partnerships and supports democratic actors. – A stronger, safer, and more prosperous hemisphere: The case for investing in democracy in the Americas – Atlantic Council
Russia
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 9 directed the government to create a roadmap to expand rare earth mining and refining, aiming to increase annual indigenous production to 3,000 tons by 2030 to meet domestic demand. Russia holds the world’s second-largest reserve of rare earth elements (REEs), yet currently imports 90 percent of its requirements, relying heavily on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which maintains a near-monopoly on global production. Moscow’s barriers to becoming a major REE producer include interconnected bottlenecks spanning technological limitations, infrastructure constraints, regulatory hurdles, geopolitical factors, and funding. – Russia Approves Expanding Rare Earths Mining And Refining Program – Jamestown
Russia-Ukraine-US-Europe
(Samir Puri – Chatham House) The latest US diplomatic push to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have run aground for now. But important facts have been gleaned about some the intractable gaps between Russian and Ukrainian negotiating positions. Among them is control of the Donbas region, which primarily refers to Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Luhansk is nearly entirely occupied by Russia, but Donetsk remains bisected between Russian and Ukrainian armed forces and is the scene of bitter ongoing fighting. – The Donbas region remains an intractable issue in talks between Russia and Ukraine | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Chatham House) Russia and the US sought to strike their own deal, while Putin warned that Moscow, while not planning for war with Europe, is ‘ready right now’. To discuss Europe’s options after being marginalized by US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, podcast host Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, Director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes; Natalie Sabanadze, a Senior Research Fellow and former Georgian Ambassador, and Jaroslava Barbieri, Research Fellow with our Ukraine Forum. Read Chatham House’s report ‘Tightening the oil-price cap to increase the pressure on Russia’ about how the current international sanctions regime is failing, and how to fix it. – Independent Thinking: Europe scrambles to avoid being sidelined on Ukraine | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
UK-Europe-Ukraine-Russia
(Laurence Thomson – RUSI) Britain confronts a fundamental strategic choice regarding Ukraine that will shape its and Europe’s security for decades. Russia’s invasion exposed critical weaknesses in NATO’s deterrent posture and the fragility of Europe’s conventional capabilities. The question confronting British policymakers and the public is not whether Britain can afford to support Ukraine, but whether it can afford not to and risk the security environment that would result from a triumphant Russia. – Britain’s Economic and Military Dividend from Supporting Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute
Ukraine-Latin America and the Carribean
(Francisco Lobo and Carlos Solar – RUSI) As Russia continues to wage hybrid warfare globally, Ukraine has developed a tailored communication strategy to engage with Latin America and the Caribbean, aiming to secure political support, economic opportunities and cultural partnerships. This paper underscores the importance of Ukraine’s proactive approach to diplomacy in Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasising shared values, human rights and security as key areas for collaboration. – Ukraine’s Wartime Diplomacy in Latin America and the Caribbean | Royal United Services Institute
US (National Security Strategy)
(Rebecca Lissner, Will Freeman, Liana Fix, Steven A. Cook, Michelle Gavin, and Paul B. Stares – Council on Foreign Relations) On December 4, the Donald Trump administration released a new National Security Strategy (NSS) that criticized U.S. allies in Europe and pledged to assert U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere. The document’s principles—which emphasized non-interventionism and putting “America First”—signal a sharp change from the previous 2022 NSS that outlined the United States’ role in strengthening democracy and preserving peace under the current world order. – Unpacking a Trump Twist of the National Security Strategy | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) The Trump 2.0 worldview is now on paper for the world to see. Late Thursday, the Trump administration released its National Security Strategy (NSS), a twenty-nine-page document outlining its principles and priorities for US foreign policy. The document articulates what US strategy is—for example, a focus on the Western Hemisphere and a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. And it addresses what US strategy isn’t: continued pursuit of a post–Cold War goal of “permanent American domination of the entire world,” which the NSS describes as a “fundamentally undesirable and impossible goal.” – Experts react: What Trump’s National Security Strategy means for US foreign policy – Atlantic Council
US-Venezuela
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) Many expected that an “America First” foreign policy agenda would condemn regime change—including through the deployment of massive military capabilities—to the dustbin of history, but President Donald Trump continues to defy expectations. Trump appears to be intent on toppling Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, including through the use of military force and covert action. Since early September, the United States has struck more than twenty boats alleged to be trafficking narcotics bound for the United States in the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean, killing at least eighty-seven people. – On Regime Change in Venezuela | Council on Foreign Relations
