From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Abkhazia-Russia; Australia; Australia-Africa; Australia-Canada-India; China; Colombia; Cyprus; Europe; Europe-China; Greenland-Denmark-US; Israel-Syria; Mali; Middle Corridor; Myanmar-China; Nigeria; UK-China; US
Abkhazia-Russia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Abkhaz officials expelled Russian political technologists, following confrontations with opposition figures who accused the specialists of election interference during Abkhazia’s November 8 local elections. Several issues remain between Sokhumi and Moscow, and the Abkhaz elite are not willing to meet all the Kremlin’s demands despite the breakaway region’s overwhelming economic dependence on Russia. Moscow tolerates such defiance because Abkhazia maintains loyalty regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine and its anti-Western geopolitical stance, which Russia prioritizes over internal administrative disputes. – Abkakhzia Expels Russian Political Technologists – Jamestown
Australia
(Jason Van der Schyff – ASPI The Strategist) Many policymakers and industry pundits have read Arthur Herman’s Freedom’s Forge with the wrong lesson in mind. For those unfamiliar, the synopsis is simple: in 1940, the United States mobilised its industrial base to mass-produce tanks, planes and ships at unprecedented speed. But that miracle wasn’t magic. It relied on a deep manufacturing ecosystem that already existed. When president Franklin Roosevelt asked General Motors to build bombers and Kaiser Shipyards to churn out Liberty ships, the factories were already in place. The people were trained; the infrastructure was ready. Australia doesn’t have that luxury. We can’t just pivot to large-scale military production: shipyards in Henderson and Osborne are already at capacity and will remain that way for decades. The next wave of defence capability won’t come from centralising scale. It will come from distributing it, from unlocking the industrial depth that already exists across Australia’s recreational, commercial and civil maritime sectors. – Small, smart, many: what maritime autonomy can teach us about self-reliance | The Strategist
Australia-Africa
(Christopher Burke – Lowy The Interpreter) The formidable challenges associated with the tyranny of distance for Africa’s 16 landlocked countries requires sophisticated, high-leverage strategy beyond conventional aid and capital deployment. Rather than trying to match the enormous financial resources of global heavyweights, Australia’s approach in Africa could be to deploy its unique domestic expertise forged across its own vast, remote continent to serve as an essential quality assurance partner for major global infrastructure investments. Concentration on high-value, low-capital interventions in remote logistics, governance and technical standards would directly complement Australia’s own commercial and security interests, particularly in the African extractives sector. – Landlocked Africa is an open opportunity for Australia | Lowy Institute
Australia-Canada-India
(Saima Afzal – ASPI The Strategist) Without careful coordination, the Australia–Canada–India Technology and Innovation (ACITI) Partnership risks becoming another partnership that under-delivers on its ambitious objectives. Managed effectively, however, it could form the nucleus of an intercontinental democratic technology coalition, combining complementary strengths in technology, minerals and clean energy. Australia, Canada and India launched the ACITI partnership at the G20 summit in Johannesburg in November, at a time when critical minerals, clean-energy supply chains and artificial intelligence are emerging as key areas of global competition. The initiative reflects a growing impulse to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities, accelerate green energy innovation, and shape emerging technology norms. Its value hinges on whether the three partners can reconcile differing regulatory systems, industrial priorities and commercial approaches. – Australia, Canada and India team up for technology future | The Strategist
China
(Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan and Rajesh Rajagopalan – ASPI The Strategist) News last week that China had published a white paper on arms control seemed promising, because it raised hopes that Beijing would provide some rationale or plan for its nuclear expansion of the past few years. Alas, it did no such thing. China has been engaged in an unprecedented nuclear weapons build-up, almost doubling its number of nuclear warheads in a short time. There has been little indication of how far this will go, and there’s no insight in the white paper published on 27 November. China’s nuclear expansion has been spectacular. For several decades it held around 300 warheads, with only a third being in intercontinental delivery systems. It now has around 600, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, with most of the expansion apparently in intercontinental missiles. – Want an explanation for China’s nuclear build-up? It’s not in the new white paper | The Strategist
Colombia
(Crisis Group) Conflict in Colombia has long been marked by attacks on the vulnerable, not least LGBTQI+ people. As the government pursues its agenda of “total peace”, state institutions need to step up efforts to protect this population from persecution and physical harm. – Exploiting Prejudice: LGBTQI+ People and Armed Groups in Colombia | International Crisis Group
Cyprus
(Emirates Policy Center) The victory of Tufan Erhurman, who advocates a federal solution to reunify Cyprus, in the presidential election of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) presents a strategic opportunity for Turkiye to re-evaluate and re-direct its regional policy toward the European Union (EU). Ankara is expected to resume negotiations on the Cyprus issue under UN supervision, even if the prospects for a lasting settlement remain limited. The mere return to the negotiating table would foster a more positive atmosphere. This would enhance Germany’s advocacy for Turkiye’s participation in the EU’s military cooperation framework. Achieving a federal solution in Cyprus remains a complex challenge, given its direct connection to Turkiye’s national security, especially the sensitive issue of maritime border demarcation with Cyprus and Greece. Ankara may ultimately be compelled to make some concessions in this regard to secure rapprochement with the EU and support efforts to overcome its economic crisis. – Emirates Policy Center | Supporter of Federal Solution Wins Presidential Election in Turkish Cyprus: What Does This Mean for Ankara?
Europe
(Etienne Soula – GMFUS) The European Commission published its long-awaited Communication on how the EU should implement its 2023 Economic Security Strategy on December 3, after a year that saw Europe come under sustained economic pressure—most notably from Chinese restrictions on rare-earths exports and new US tariffs. Adding insult to injury, reports suggesting that Brussels’ rare-earths crisis eased only after the United States and China reached a bilateral accommodation show that Europe is increasingly on the sidelines of decisions that directly affect its prosperity. Yet, Brussels remains constrained by the very geopolitical pressures the Communication seeks to address. The result is a document that acknowledges Europe’s vulnerabilities without delivering the kind of decisive measures that would reverse the bloc’s gradual slide toward becoming a theater for great-power competition. – Too Little to Meet the Moment | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Europe-China
(Noah Barkin – GMFUS) There are three ways that Europe’s economic relationship with China could develop in the years ahead, and none of the scenarios are particularly pleasant. This is not a choice between good, bad, and ugly outcomes. It is about degrees of bad and ugly. Let’s start with the least palatable of these pathways. This is a future in which Europe succumbs to defeatism, convincing itself that China has too much leverage, that de-risking is simply too hard to achieve, and that a bloc of 27 member states can never muster the unity required to mount a coherent and forceful response. – Watching China in Europe—December 2025 | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Greenland-Denmark-US
(Lisa Martin – Lowy The Interpreter) As light fades across Copenhagen, a Danish foreign ministry senior official prepares to burn the midnight oil, monitoring every utterance about Greenland from the Trump administration. From the ministry’s sixth floor, the night watcher – who has access to a bed for brief naps during the 5pm to 9am shift – is charged with circulating a morning report on overnight developments and has a telephone tree to wake up Denmark’s top officials should an emergency arise. The night watch shift has become permanent, according to Danish newspaper Politiken and comes as Denmark’s Washington DC embassy has ramped up public diplomacy staffing and pivoted to operating in a “diplomatic grey area” – talking to people with ties to Trump outside the formal US power structure. – Trump to cast a shadow over coming Greenland talks | Lowy Institute
Israel-Syria
(The Soufan Center) Israel’s policy in Syria relies on hard power and control over territory rather than building an interrelated web of diplomatic alliances and coalitions to protect its interests. Israeli leaders are expanding a buffer zone in southern Syria even though U.S. officials warn that doing so might undermine the new government in Damascus. Following an Israeli raid into Syria last week that killed 13 people, President Trump rebuked Israeli policy and called on Israel not to “disrupt Syria’s development.”. Israel’s continued control over an expanded zone in southern Syria and its repeated air strikes on Syrian military infrastructure have caused an impasse in U.S.-brokered talks on a security pact. – Defying Trump, Israel Expands Buffer Zone in Syria – The Soufan Center
Mali
(Emirates Policy Center) A group affiliated with al-Qaeda continues to impose an effective siege on large swathes of southern Mali, including a main road leading to the capital, Bamako. This tactic – which started in September 2025 – has caused a sharp fuel shortage and the closure of schools and universities across the country, increasing pressure on the military government. In response to this growing threat, the Malian government has devised a strategy focused on guarding fuel tankers from nearby ports and constructing oil storage facilities in several regions of the country. However, this strategy appears insufficient to overcome this complicated problem. The growing risks highlight the urgent need for Malian authorities and influential actors to re-engage in national negotiations and reconciliation efforts with representatives of rebel groups in the northern and central parts of the country. Swift action is essential to preserve the country’s unity and stability. – Emirates Policy Center | The Rugged Roads to Bamako: Prospects for a Fuel Crisis and the Strategy of Radical Groups to Besiege Cities in Mali
Middle Corridor
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) A new multimodal freight corridor launched on October 15—which moves cargo from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to the Caspian Sea for onward transport to Western markets via the Baku-Tblisi-Kars route—demonstrates the potential of emerging east–west transport networks. This initiative aligns with Uzbekistan’s transit hub ambitions and introduces important geographical diversification, reducing reliance on northern routes through Russia while enhancing the resilience of Eurasian supply chains. The route strengthens the Middle Corridor’s infrastructure, deepening regional cooperation and transforming Central Asia from a landlocked space into a land-linked crossroads. – Middle Corridor Expands Through New Multimodal Routes – Jamestown
Myanmar-China
(Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan – The Jamestown Foundation) PRC-based firms are expanding rare-earth mining in Myanmar’s Shan and Kachin States by partnering with militias that lease mines, provide security, and tax exports. Satellite imagery shows a rapid increase in REE sites since 2015, turning militia-held enclaves into major suppliers of dysprosium, terbium, and other critical minerals for the PRC. As United States–PRC competition intensifies, Myanmar’s fragmented sovereignty enables armed groups with ties to Beijing to shape REE supply chains, complicating potential U.S. and Indian efforts to source Burmese minerals. – Militias Assist PRC-Based Ventures Mining Rare Earth Elements in Myanmar – Jamestown
Nigeria
(Aminah Mustapha – The Jamestown Foundation) Nigeria’s rapid shift toward mobile money, Point of Sale (PoS) terminals, and fintech wallets has created new financial pathways for insurgents and bandit groups, according to a March 2025 assessment. Weak “Know Your Customer” (KYC) regulations and lightly supervised agent networks allow criminals to move ransom payments and insurgent taxes with reduced detection risk. Islamic State–West Africa Province (ISWAP) is integrating digital platforms into its revenue collection and logistics, using agent banking, civilian intermediaries, and fragmented transfers to shift funds without transporting bulk cash. Digital rails now enable cross-regional liquidity movement that complicates intelligence tracking. Northwestern bandit groups increasingly rely on PoS agents and low-tier fintech wallets to process ransom payments through coercion, intermediaries, and rapid cash-outs. Despite new CBN regulations, enforcement gaps in rural high-risk areas leave Nigeria’s digital-finance ecosystem vulnerable to armed actors. – Nigerian Jihadists and Bandits Exploit Emerging Fintech – Jamestown
UK-China
(Tahlia Peterson – Chatham House) For the third time, the UK government has reportedly delayed its decision over whether to approve a controversial new Chinese embassy in central London. The government was expected to approve the plans for the vast ‘mega-embassy’ by the deadline of 10 December, but the decision has now reportedly been pushed back to 20 January. The embassy decision has become a flashpoint for the wider debate over how the UK should approach potential national security risks from China. Critics have raised a range of concerns, including that China could use the embassy to conduct espionage. They have argued that the site’s location directly above fibre optic networks that support London’s financial infrastructure could provide China with potential access to sensitive communications traffic. – UK’s indecision over Chinese ‘mega-embassy’ highlights need for a more coherent China policy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US
(Navin Girishankar and Chris Borges – CSIS) On November 24, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order launching the Genesis Mission with an audacious goal: to double U.S. scientific productivity in 10 years using AI. The administration frames it as this generation’s Manhattan Project—a national mobilization to accelerate scientific discovery, strengthen national security, and restore U.S. technological leadership against the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The initiative brings together elements of the administration’s AI Action Plan, which includes a goal of revitalizing the U.S. scientific enterprise, and the president’s March 2025 letter to his science advisor, Michael Kratsios, which urges a renewal of U.S. capacity for breakthrough innovation. – The Genesis Mission: Can the United States’ Bet on AI Revitalize U.S. Science?
