From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Afghanistan; Australia-Indonesia; Australia-New Zealand-Pacific; Foundational Technologies; Houthis-Middle East; Iraq; Russia; Russia-Belarus; Saudi Arabia-US; Syria; Türkiye; US-Carribean; US-Global Development
Afghanistan
(Masoom Stanekzai – ASPI The Strategist) Geography and a history of proxy politics have made Afghanistan an arena for others’ contests, undermining its stability. Internal fragmentation has compounded the damage. Regional rivalries have repeatedly undermined Afghan-led efforts toward peace. These rivalries have included those between Pakistan and India and between Iran and the Gulf States. Intensifying US–China competition and US tensions with Russia and Iran have also been factors. – Rivalries and missed opportunities stole Afghanistan’s peace | The Strategist
Australia – Indonesia
(Gatra Priyandita – ASPI The Strategist) Wednesday’s announcement of a new security treaty between Australia and Indonesia marks a meaningful shift in regional diplomacy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Prabowo Subianto’s decision to formalise deeper security cooperation revives a familiar script, but under new circumstances. Negotiated quietly, few diplomats or analysts were aware it was in development. – Old words, new realities: what the Australia–Indonesia security treaty means | The Strategist
Australia – New Zealand – Pacific
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) The Pacific doesn’t have a drug problem. Australia and New Zealand do. And our unrelenting demand for illicit drugs is exporting instability into the region. A recent report in The Australian warned that Pacific Islanders deported from Australia and New Zealand are fuelling an organised crime spree across their home countries. The story captured the surface symptoms—rising gang activity, money laundering and trafficking networks—but missed the deeper diagnosis. – Australian and New Zealand thirst for drugs is fuelling crime in the Pacific | The Strategist
Foundational Technologies
(Justin G. Muzinich, Gina M. Raimondo, James D. Taiclet, Jonathan E. Hillman, Anya Schmemann – Council on Foreign Relations) Strategic competition over the world’s next generation of foundational technologies is underway, and U.S. advantages in artificial intelligence, quantum, and biotechnology are increasingly contested. The United States must address vulnerabilities and mobilize the investment needed to prevail. – U.S. Economic Security | Council on Foreign Relations
Houthis – Middle East
(Noam Raydan – The Washington Institute) Although the Yemeni Houthis have not launched further ship attacks since late September, freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and adjoining waterways is still under threat, and the new Gaza truce cannot be relied on as a guarantee that the group’s long maritime campaign is over. Earlier this month, a senior Houthi official declared that shipping attacks and other strikes would resume if “the [Israeli] enemy” takes further military action in Gaza. More tellingly, the maritime industry and coalition naval forces remain cautious, similar to their reaction during the short-lived Gaza ceasefire in January. The Houthi threat also continues to loom over Gulf countries and their economic interests, mainly Saudi Arabia, where the group targeted an oil tanker off the port of Yanbu on August 31 (see below). In light of these ongoing threats, potential efforts to disrupt Houthi supply chains could prove crucial. In September, a tanker reportedly transporting Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to the group was mysteriously attacked off the Houthi-controlled port of Ras Issa, leading one official to claim that Israel was responsible. As the U.S. Treasury Department intensifies its efforts to dismantle the Iranian networks responsible for illicit energy transfers to the group, Washington should keep a close eye on wider Houthi supply chains and procurement networks, since the risks to commercial shipping will not disappear so long as these networks remain robust. – Houthi Maritime Threats and the Gaza Truce: Why Disrupting Supply Chains Is Indispensable | The Washington Institute
Iraq
(The Soufan Center) Iraqis went to the polls on Tuesday for the sixth post-Saddam national elections, hoping to continue the country’s path toward moderation, stability, and reintegration into the region. The electoral slate, led by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, appears to have received sufficient support to secure him another term as head of government, but powerful negotiations over a new leadership team have typically taken seven to eight months. Using its expanding regional leverage, Trump’s team is likely to insist that Sudani’s Shia rivals, particularly former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, not dominate Iraq’s next government. If returned to office, Sudani will seek to take advantage of Tehran’s geostrategic weakness to further reduce its influence in Iraq and to demobilize Iran-aligned militia groups. – Elections Likely to Advance Iraqi Stability – The Soufan Center
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian National Unity Day, celebrated on November 4, has undergone significant ideational changes since its revival in 2005. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin has elevated its own loyal nationalist group, the Russian Cossacks, positioning them as a “faithful support of Russia” and a “human shield of the Orthodox faith.”. Russian National Unity now promotes a new state ideology, with paramilitary Cossacks celebrated by religious, political, and cultural leaders as a “spiritual spetsnaz” symbolizing a militaristic, holy patriotism rallied around Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Russian National Unity Day Extolls the Cossacks – Jamestown
Russia – Belarus
(Hanna Liubakova – Atlantic Council) For about five years, from 2015 to 2020, Belarus created an illusion that it was changing: a deceptive glimmer that suggested its leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, might steer his country away from Russia’s orbit and toward greater independence. In hindsight, this false dawn only masked the tightening grip of Moscow. Two myths fueled misplaced optimism. First, there was a belief that Belarus could balance between the East and West through a multivector foreign policy. Second, there was a hope that Minsk’s limited reforms, release of some political prisoners, and especially its refusal to unconditionally back Moscow in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and intervention in the Donbas signaled a liberalizing turn. Both illusions ultimately frayed during this period. – Minsk in Moscow’s grip: How Russia subjugated Belarus without annexation – Atlantic Council
Saudi Arabia – US
(Daniel Benaim – Middle East Institute) On November 18, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is scheduled to make his first trip to Washington since 2018. President Donald Trump has doubled down on the Gulf from the outset of his second term, making Riyadh his first planned overseas trip and reorienting ties around major artificial intelligence (AI) and investment deals. MBS’s visit will test whether both sides can translate ambitious pledges into concrete outcomes. Significant upgrades in defense and security are expected, with movement possible on semiconductor sales and nuclear cooperation. Behind the ambitions, harder questions about Saudi-Israeli normalization and alignment in a rapidly changing region loom as important Oval Office topics. In a new MEI Policy Memo, Daniel Benaim breaks down why it matters for the US and the relevant policy considerations. – MBS Comes to Washington | Middle East Institute
Syria
(Aaron Y. Zelin – The Washington Institute) An in-depth look at the legal regime that Syria’s transitional authorities have put in place to deal with religious minorities, focusing on how its policies have played out in a climate of ongoing violence and public distrust. – Religious Freedom in Syria’s Post-Assad Transition | The Washington Institute
(Middle East Institute) In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Charles Lister to unpack the historic November 10 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the Oval Office as well as assess post-Assad Syria’s evolution over the past year. Lister, who recently returned from Damascus, offers on-the-ground insights into the country’s transition, the challenges of post-war recovery, and the prospects for lifting US sanctions under the Caesar Act. The conversation explores how the new Syrian government is balancing engagement with the United States and regional partners, its decision to join the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, and what these developments could mean for Syria’s long-term stability and reintegration into the Middle East. – From War to Reconstruction: Syria’s Next Chapter | Middle East Institute
Türkiye
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Türkiye’s parliament is again discussing constructing a canal that would bypass the Turkish straits, undermining the 1936 Montreux Convention. The convention gives Türkiye the right to close the Turkish Straits to foreign military vessels in times of war. Moscow sees this potential canal as a threat to its national security because it could allow Western warships to enter the Black Sea in excess of the numbers and tonnage set by the 1936 convention. As Ankara moves to realize its goal of creating a canal that would be an alternative to the Bosphorus, potentially threatening the provisions of the Montreux Convention, Moscow is likely to do what it can to prevent this, relying in the first instance on domestic Turkish opposition to the idea. – Türkiye Plans Canal That Could Undermine Montreux Convention – Jamestown
US – Carribean
(Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park – CSIS) With the redeployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean reaches a level unseen since the Cold War. The aircraft carrier’s arrival suggests a shift from a campaign against drug smugglers to one that includes undermining the Maduro regime. – USS Ford arrives in the Caribbean: Will It Strike or Stand Down?
US – Global Development
(CSIS) This three-part series from the CSIS Global Development Department examines the dramatic changes in the priorities, policies, and organizational structures of the development landscape since the second Trump administration began in 2025. Part I explores the context, current state, and early impacts of decisions like the move to dismantle USAID. Part II dives deeper into specific spheres of development to assess the initial impacts in areas such as health security and global democratic governance. Part III provides recommendations for impactful engagement in the changed landscape. – A New Landscape for Development
