From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Artificial Intelligence; Azerbaijan-Russia; China; Climate Action-Agriculture-Food Security; Extremism-Terrorism-Counter Terrorism; Five Nations Railway Corridor; Nepal; Pakistan-Afghanistan; Philippines; Russia-NATO; Russia-Ukraine; Russia-US; Sudan; Syria-Russia; US-China
Artificial Intelligence
(Anulekha Nandi, Shreya Balasubramani – Observer Research Foundation) Market disruptions and strategic concerns, followed by rapid diffusion, marked the sensational launch of China’s DeepSeek in January this year. This brief highlights how China’s ‘DeepSeek moment’ has unfolded within the wider context of its military might, manufacturing prowess, and robust network of regional and international institutions. It argues that the event introduced dimensions of national and economic security into the cascading effects of competition which, in turn, is causing distortions in markets, intensifying rationales for technological sovereignty, and reinforcing newer dimensions of dependency. DeepSeek’s accelerated market penetration also raises questions on the architecture of future global AI innovation. – DeepSeek and Global AI Innovation: Sovereignty, Competition, and Dependency
Azerbaijan – Russia
(Yunis Gurbanov – The Jamestown Foundation) The October 10 meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin marked a cautious re-engagement following a period of tension in Azerbaijan–Russia relations. Baku reaffirmed its strategy of pragmatic, balanced diplomacy—engaging Moscow without compromising independence, reflecting growing confidence and the pursuit of multivector diplomacy centered on autonomy and practical cooperation. The meeting signaled continuity in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy diversification through partnerships with Türkiye, the European Union, and the United States rather than a strategic realignment toward Moscow. – Putin and Aliyev Meet in Dushanbe – Jamestown
China
(James Kynge – Chatham House) China is winning the tech race against the US in almost all sectors and leaving Europe far behind. Saying this would have been controversial only a few short months ago, but such a realization is now becoming more mainstream. Jim Farley, the CEO of US car giant Ford, warned last month: ‘They have enough [production] capacity in China with existing factories to serve the entire North American market, put us all out of business. Japan never had that, so this is a completely different level of risk for our industry.’. And Jensen Huang, CEO of the world’s most valuable company, Nvidia, had a similar take: ‘China is going to win the AI race.’ – China’s tech advance means Western corporations must adapt to compete | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(RUSI) The paper first examines the structure and operations of Chinese Money Laundering Organisations (CMLOs) before moving on to describe how they have developed in the West. It then discusses them through a ‘state threats’ lens to evaluate whether they fit within this framework. In doing so, it draws on Redhead’s 2025 studies to assess how Western nations should respond. While recognising the extent and scope of the threat of CMLOs, the research does not find any evidence in the public domain to suggest that the Chinese state has been directing the operations of CMLOs operating in North America and Europe; however, it appears that there is, at least, tacit acceptance of their activities. – Flying Money, Hidden Threat Understanding the growth of Chinese Money Laundering Organisations | Royal United Services Institute
Climate Action – Agriculture – Food Security
(Shoba Suri – Observer Research Foundation) When the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, food systems occupied a peripheral place in global climate negotiations. Yet, over the past decade, the world has learned that the goals of limiting temperature rise (Article 2) and strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity (Article 7) are inseparable from growth, trade, and consumption of food. While agriculture remains responsible for nearly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, climate impacts are eroding yields, disrupting supply chains, and intensifying food insecurity—particularly for smallholders in developing economies. The past decade has therefore seen a gradual but decisive reframing: from viewing agriculture as a victim of climate change to recognising it as a critical lever for both adaptation and mitigation. As Parties convene in Belém for COP30, the challenge is to institutionalise this recognition—transforming political declarations into a structured work programme under the Paris framework, and aligning the financial flows enshrined in Article 9 to scale climate-smart agriculture, enhance food security, and protect livelihoods across a warming world. At COP28, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action elevated food and agriculture to the heart of the climate agenda. Endorsed by over 150 countries, it recognised that “any path to achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement must include agriculture and food systems” and urged integration of these sectors into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and Long-Term Strategies by 2025. This marked a turning point: the political recognition that food systems are indispensable to achieving the temperature and adaptation goals of the Paris Agreement. However, political declarations must now evolve into institutionalised work programmes within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) architecture. As COP30 in Belém approaches, it presents the first real opportunity to transform the Dubai momentum into structured, resourced, and accountable action. – From Paris to Belém: Building a Climate-Resilient Food Future
Extremism, Terrorism, Counter Terrorism
(Soumya Awasthi – Observer Research Foundation) In late October 2025, the Pakistan-based and UN-proscribed terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) launched an online course titled Tuhfat-ul-Mu’minat, meaning The Gift for Female Believers. The course, designed explicitly for women, is being endorsed via encrypted Telegram groups, social media handles linked to JeM’s media wings, and affiliated madrassa networks. The course enrolment fee is PKR 500 (150 INR) for women to participate in what is framed as a “spiritual journey” towards “understanding jihad, sacrifice, and modesty.”. The same women’s brigade, the Jamat-ul-Muminatis, is now suspected to be involved in the Delhi Red Fort blast that occurred on November 10, 2025. Dr Shaheena Shahid, who was part of this wing, is suspected to be heading its operations in India. The online course comes a few months after JeM announced the acceptance of donations through digital wallets like EasyPaisa and SadaPay to facilitate ‘digital hawala’ and raise funds to finance its activities, soon after Operation Sindoor razed the group’s bases. JeM operates over 2,000 active digital wallet accounts, moving an estimated US$2.8–3.2 million annually. A significant portion of these funds is allegedly used for procuring weapons and funding terror operations, with some estimates suggesting that up to 50 percent goes directly towards arms purchases. JeM’s ability to evade FATF scrutiny is unlikely without the support of the Pakistani establishment. The online course is intended to serve both as an ideological training platform and as a fundraising apparatus for JeM’s operations. Female relatives of senior JeM commanders are leading the online modules, including Masood Azhar’s sisters Sadia Azhar, Samira Azhar, and Sia Azhar, as well as Afra Farooq, the wife of Omar Farooq, one of the Pahalgam terror attackers. The course has already been discreetly promoted through JeM’s internal Telegram and WhatsApp networks, as well as through closed online religious forums. – From Hawala to Digital Wallets: Jaish-e-Mohammed’s Tech-Savvy Terror
Five Nations Railway Corridor
(Nargiza Umarova – The Jamestown Foundation) Afghanistan, Iran, and Türkiye agreed on October 22 to jointly construct a railway between Afghanistan’s cities of Herat and Mazar-i-Sharif as a part of the Five Nations Railway Corridor (FNRC). The development of the FNRC—spanning the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Iran—will greatly benefit Tehran and Kabul as they increasingly facilitate trade to the PRC and seek to diversify their eastern trade routes. The Herat–Mazar-i-Sharif line may alter Uzbekistan’s transit role, offering it new access to Iran’s ports but also risking loss of cargo traffic to Tajikistan and Iran if Tashkent does become involved in the FNRC. – Herat to Mazar-i-Sharif Railway Project May Shift Uzbekistan’s Transit Role – Jamestown
Nepal
(Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury, Sreedipta Roy – Observer Research Foundation) Recent protests in Nepal reflected youth anger over political stagnation, soaring living costs, and deepening mistrust in governance, with corruption at the core. Yet, an even graver threat looms large: climate change, already evident through erratic weather, melting glaciers, and rising natural disasters that endanger the fragile Himalayan ecosystem and the livelihoods it supports. For a country that is among the ones to contribute least towards global emissions, Nepal faces a disproportionate burden of climate change as Himalayan glaciers face the imminent threat of disappearing, and an increase in natural calamities plagues the nation’s fragile ecosystem and vulnerable communities. Almost 80 percent of the Himalayan glacial reserve faces a risk of extinction by 2100 if global emissions continue to increase. Even with efforts to keep the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, up to 30 percent of glaciers would still be lost. In the last twelve years, 44,000 reported incidents of floods, landslides, and storms have taken place in Nepal, claiming the lives of 5,667 individuals and resulting in US$367 million in losses. – Melting Glaciers, Moving People: Nepal’s Climate-induced Migration
Pakistan – Afghanistan
(Zuha Noor-Sylvia and Noah Sylvia – RUSI) As the second round negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul stalled, then broke down, a permanent solution to the crisis appears far out of reach. Talks since 19 October have been marked by deadlock and uncertainty, but the future of a permanent and sustainable peace agreement looks no brighter. Pakistan and Afghanistan do not have any further scheduled negotiations, although future talks remain on the table. But even as all parties seek to pursue this objective, thousands of kilometres from Istanbul, the Af-Pak region is marred by armed clashes between Pakistan and Afghan Taliban regime’s ally, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Such turmoil is not unfamiliar to either country, particularly in their border region, but this time Pakistan’s government appears to have run out of patience with militant attacks on its territory, with demands for immediate, decisive action intensifying in Islamabad. Across the border, Afghanistan denies the accusation that it is harbouring the militants terrorising Pakistan’s neighbouring province. With the backdrop of these staunch national positions, negotiations are struggling to resolve the underlying conflict centring around the TTP: one’s ally and the other’s enemy. – Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict and the Question of Cross-Border Terrorism | Royal United Services Institute
Philippines
(Bianka Venkataramani – Chatham House) This year has seen continued tensions between the Philippines and China, as Beijing uses what some analysts call ‘grey zone coercion’ tactics to establish control in the South China Sea. Collisions and confrontations between Chinese and Philippine ships and aircraft have occurred throughout the year – most recently near Thitu Island. Each side repeatedly accuses the other of dangerous manoeuvres and provocations in disputed areas such as Scarborough Shoal, which both sides claim. The Philippines has invested significantly in securing its territorial interests, but its waters remain vulnerable – not least as a result of domestic politics. The US–China rivalry is playing out at the very top of government, within the walls of Malacañang Palace in Manila, where the president and vice-president are in open conflict. – The Marcos–Duterte feud is undermining Philippine security in the South China Sea | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia – NATO
(Nikolay Staykov and Jack Watling – RUSI) The paper reveals significant dependencies on foreign components, materials and machine tools, and highlights the growing capability gap between Russian aircraft and their NATO and Chinese counterparts and the challenges Russia faces in retaining skilled engineers in the global market. The paper provides actionable insights for NATO and its allies to counter Russia’s military–industrial capabilities and reduce its influence in the global defence sector. – Vulnerabilities in Sukhoi Production: Clipping Russia’s Wings | Royal United Services Institute
Russia – Ukraine
(Maksym Beznosiuk – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin has turned reconstruction activities in the occupied territories of Ukraine into a patronage system that enriches federal elites and loyal local governors. Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin oversees a vast federal program that channels millions of dollars via opaque procurement and “patron-region” partnerships. State corporations, such as Rostec, and companies tied to the Kremlin’s circle benefit greatly from seized assets and inflated contracts, while actual reconstruction remains slow and symbolic. – Kremlin Builds Patronage Economy in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories – Jamestown
Russia – US
(Georgia Cole – Chatham House) Last week, Russia claimed to have successfully tested two nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable weapons: the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater drone. The announcement comes only months before the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and the US is due to expire. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) places binding limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems by the world’s two largest nuclear powers. It is due to expire in February 2026, risking the removal of the final guardrail restraining the size and visibility of their arsenals – and increasing the risk of a new nuclear arms race. In a time of deep geopolitical mistrust and diminished diplomatic capacity, preventing escalation and preserving even minimal restraint is an urgent priority. – Russia and the US put nuclear testing back on the table. Is time running out for arms control? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Sudan
(The Soufan Center) The two-year conflict between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), backed by the United Arab Emirates, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), has already pushed Sudan into a humanitarian crisis, with serious abuses committed by both sides. Entire neighborhoods in El Fasher and across Darfur have been razed, survivors have described scenes of systematic slaughter, hospitals have been attacked or occupied by paramilitaries, aid convoys looted, and doctors detained or executed. Aside from the dire humanitarian crisis, another troubling aspect of this war has been the depth of foreign involvement, with the United Arab Emirates accused by multiple observers of providing weapons, logistics, and “gold-trade support” to the RSF paramilitaries. Many experts believe that the UAE’s support has been instrumental to the RSF’s transformation into a dominant war machine capable of sustaining its campaign across Sudan. – Slaughter in Sudan Enabled by External Actors – The Soufan Center
Syria – Russia
(Kelly Kassis – RUSI) In a historic visit to Washington, transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa became the first Syrian leader to visit the White House. The trip is meant to symbolise a turning point in Syria’s relations with the United States, as Damascus prepares to join the US-led coalition against ISIS. Yet rather than signalling a major geopolitical realignment, it reflects Sharaa’s broader strategy of maintaining ‘zero external enemies’, underscored by his visit to the Kremlin one month earlier. This approach has secured him growing international legitimacy but also rests on a fragile balance of power that will be increasingly difficult to sustain amid diverging foreign interests. Sharaa’s overture to Moscow marked the culmination of months of growing diplomatic engagement, during which Russia resumed shipments of wheat and oil to Syria and agreed to print new Syrian banknotes through Goznak, the same provider used under Assad. The rapprochement has been facilitated by Sharaa’s brother Maher, a gynaecologist who lived and worked in Russia for over two decades and now serves as Syria’s de facto second-in-command. Although the visit has been framed as a reset in relations, Sharaa pledged to honour all past agreements and signalled intent to deepen bilateral ties. These include Russia’s military bases at Hmeimim and Tartus, as well as the continuation of energy and reconstruction contracts awarded under Assad’s regime, many underpinned by Syria’s coercive debt obligations to Moscow. The emerging alignment points to a restoration of the structural dependencies that defined the Assad era, and with them, the return of Russian influence. – Russia’s Enduring Grip on Syria | Royal United Services Institute
US – China
(GMFUS) On October 30, US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. It was their first face-to-face meeting in 6 years. There was a lot at stake in this meeting for the US and China, as well as for the rest of the world. In my view, the outcome is best described as a fragile truce. The path forward for US-China relations remains uncertain – greater stability and predictability is possible but not assured. Intense competition across several domains, especially technology, is likely. Today’s episode focuses on the Trump-Xi summit and the future of US-China relations, featuring Mr. Dennis Wilder. Dennis is a senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he previously served as the managing director, and assistant professor of the practice in Asian studies in the School of Foreign Service. He served on President George W. Bush’s NSC first as director for China and then as senior director for Asian Affairs. He also had a distinguished career in the CIA, where he held many positions, the last of which was senior editor of the Presidential Daily Brief. – The Trump-Xi Summit and Future of US-China Ties | German Marshall Fund of the United States
