From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: COP30; Ethiopia-Eritrea; EU; Eurasian Economic Union; EU-Ukraine; India; Kenya; US-India
COP30
(Observer Research Foundation) COP30 in Belém, Brazil, marks a pivotal inflection point in the climate regime—a full decade since the Paris Agreement reset the world’s climate governance architecture around nationally determined contributions (NDCs), transparency, and collective ambition. As the first Global Stocktake (GST) reveals the distance between pledges and pathways, COP30 must transition the global community from incrementalism to integrated implementation. The decade ahead will test whether nations can deliver development that is not merely low-carbon, but climate-aligned—anchored in resilience, equity, and systemic transformation. For India and the Global South, the “Implementation COP” presents both opportunity and scrutiny. Expectations will centre on operationalising the Paris Agreement’s core articles: raising ambition in the next generation of NDCs (Article 4); delivering credible adaptation frameworks and National Adaptation Plans (Article 7); strengthening transparency and accountability systems (Article 13); mobilising predictable finance and technology transfer (Articles 9–10); and defining what just transition means for emerging economies. This series, “Expectations from COP30”, will decode these negotiations across interlinked themes such as water, health, food security, transport, climate finance, energy transition, and gender. They assess what COP30 must deliver to bridge the implementation gap and restore credibility to the Paris promise. – Expectations from COP30
Ethiopia – Eritrea
(The Soufan Center) Earlier this week, authorities in Ethiopia’s Afar region accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of launching a fresh wave of attacks into Afar from Tigray in supposed violation of a 2022 peace deal that ended Ethiopia’s brutal northern war. Although the Pretoria Agreement formally ended the fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF, relations with neighboring Eritrea –– which was involved in the war but excluded from the peace agreement –– began to deteriorate. Tensions between the neighbors have escalated over the past year, particularly over Red Sea access, with Ethiopia notifying the UN Secretary-General in October that Eritrea was “actively preparing for war,” and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warning weeks later that once war begins, “no one can stop us.”. A war in this region could disrupt maritime traffic, threaten Red Sea port infrastructure, and draw in outside powers invested in the area, while also further destabilizing a region already contending with multiple crises. – Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward a Renewed War in the Horn of Africa – The Soufan Center
EU
(Guillaume Gandelin – Observer Research Foundation) Soul-searching in the European capitals has only deepened since the start of Trump’s second presidency, with European Union (EU) members now questioning whether Washington’s once-ironclad security guarantees will endure. This bewilderment when facing a potential US disengagement in the Old Continent was evidently best captured during Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Forum in February 2025. In light of the recent Munich episode, several EU member states have started to openly express their interest in France’s nuclear deterrent, which remains the EU’s only one since Brexit. This development is seen as a way to partially address Europe’s security needs, particularly by Poland and Germany. Taking up on these initiatives, President Macron spoke of a “European dimension” of France’s deterrent during an interview for a French channel in May 2025. Behind the high-pitched rhetoric, the newfound interest in a “Europeanisation” of the French deterrent is nothing if not. However fraught and sensitive the concept might be, exploring its historical, political, and operational ramifications is imperative. – France’s Nuclear Deterrent and Europe’s Shifting Security Future
Eurasian Economic Union
(Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) Established in 2015, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is the culmination of efforts undertaken to institutionalise economic regionalism in the post-Soviet space. Comprising Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, the Union is conceived as a supranational framework inspired by the European Union, designed to facilitate the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour, and to promote coordinated economic policies across member states. Over the past decade, the EAEU has undergone a transformative evolution, not only enhancing economic linkages among member countries but also attracting interest from external partners, including states, regional organisations, and transnational institutions. Nevertheless, despite strong political commitment, the Union’s effectiveness continues to be constrained by persistent geopolitical frictions and structural disparities among its members. Against this backdrop, tracing the development of neo-regionalism in Eurasia and charting its future trajectory merit continued scrutiny. – One Step Forward and Two Steps Back: The EAEU @10
EU – Ukraine
(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) On 29 October, a revised EU-Ukraine trade agreement came into effect. The current agreement is an updated version of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), envisaged as a key pillar of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement that was negotiated in 2014 and fully implemented in 2017. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, EU trade with Ukraine has taken place under a temporary framework of “Autonomous Trade Measures” (ATMs), which remained in place from June 2022 until June 2025 to sustain Kyiv’s wartime economy. Driven by Moscow’s blockade of Kyiv’s key trading routes through the Black Sea, these measures suspended duties and quotas in favour of full trade liberalisation aimed at supporting the Ukrainian economy through preferential market access. At the end of June 2025, the EU and Ukraine agreed to review the DCTA, with the new text adopted through qualified majority in the European Council and binding for at least three years. – A Balanced and Sustainable Framework for EU-Ukraine Trade
India
(Nimisha Chadha – Observer Research Foundation) World Immunisation Day, celebrated annually on 10 November, aims to raise awareness about the importance of getting vaccinated. Earlier in the year, the World Immunisation Week’s theme for 2025, held from 24-30 April, was “Immunisation for all is humanly possible.” In this context, while India has one of the largest immunisation programmes globally, targeting pregnant women and children, efforts toward adult immunisation often fall behind. India’s immunisation programmes have been the most effective and cost-efficient health interventions for controlling the spread of diseases, disease eradication, and saving millions of lives every year among children and pregnant women. A study found that India’s Universal Immunisation Programme (UIP) for children increased weekly wages by 13.8 percent, providing long-term benefits across health and economic outcomes. This study highlights that vaccination is not just a health intervention, but an investment in human capital that yields returns through multiple pathways throughout the life course. – Investing in Lifelong Health: Adult Vaccines in India’s Public Health Agenda
Kenya
(Pranoy Jainendran – Observer Research Foundation) The 2022 Kenyan general elections marked a new phase in electoral dynamics. It was the first recorded instance in which artificial intelligence (AI) tools were deployed at a national level in Africa to safeguard against targeted polarisation during electoral processes. The national initiative, led by the Maintaining Peace through Early Warning, Monitoring and Analysis Consortium (MAPEMA), introduced the global community to the application of AI technologies in safeguarding electoral integrity and ethically monitoring public sentiment throughout the election period. This was done by ensuring healthy communication with voters and protecting them against targeted polarisation through social media platforms. The planning and implementation of the system employed in Kenya represented a significant advancement in the integration of AI within political frameworks. Nonetheless, the experience also highlighted critical areas requiring further analysis to ensure the security and integrity of elections as AI tools become increasingly common in the political landscape. This article examines the fundamental tenets demonstrated by the Kenyan initiative that merit replication in future undertakings in other electoral processes. It also analyses its relevance for India. – AI and Electoral Integrity: Insights from Kenya’s 2022 Elections
US – India
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) The United States President Donald Trump ordered the US military to resume nuclear testing. Albeit a surprise in some quarters, the announcement appears consistent with the policies of Trump’s first administration. Indeed, the first Trump Administration dabbled momentarily with resuming testing. Among the explicitly stated reasons for the resumption in nuclear testing lies Washington’s need to sustain and maintain the reliability and performance of the American nuclear arsenal. US Vice President J.D. Vance said while observing, “It is an important part of American national security to make sure that this nuclear arsenal we have actually functions properly, and that’s part of a testing regime.” Although Washington has not conducted a nuclear test since 1992, concerns surrounding reliability appear far-fetched given its advanced capabilities in computer-simulated testing, hydro-nuclear testing, and sub-critical testing in laboratory-enabled environments. These tests are significantly derived from test data accumulated from over 1,000 “hot” nuclear tests the US conducted until 1992. – America Resumes Nuclear Testing: Implications for India
