This paper examines how shifting threat perceptions are affecting definitions of national security in the US and Europe, and considers the future implications for the transatlantic alliance. By exploring key themes such as great power competition with China and Russia, regional crises in the Middle East and Africa, and transboundary security threats, such as climate change and pandemics, the paper looks beyond day-to-day political developments – including the current administration of President Donald Trump and current key European governments – to focus on broader, longer-term structural changes in how threats are perceived and their interaction with foreign policy interests. This paper argues that the transatlantic alliance faces growing differences over threats and priorities, but that it can remain a pillar of global stability if both sides embrace a rebalanced partnership, with Europe assuming greater security responsibility and the US remaining engaged. Sustaining this model will require political will, flexible institutions, deeper dialogue, stronger European defence spending and a continued US commitment to the alliance.
The Impact of Evolving Threat Perceptions on the Transatlantic Alliance (Erik Brattberg – RUSI)
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