Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

Russian forces conducted a large combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 21 and 22 and struck a Ukrainian kindergarten on the morning of October 22.
The United States announced new economic and military levers in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s persistent reticence to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Western reporting indicates that the United States called off the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia continued to demonstrate its unwillingness to compromise on its long-standing war demands in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is setting conditions to exculpate itself for the likely failure of future peace negotiations due to its own unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations.
The Kremlin is using pre-planned strategic missile tests to further its ongoing rhetorical effort to push the United States to agree to concessions on the war in Ukraine in return for US-Russian arms control talks.
Ukraine and its European allies are reportedly developing a 12-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine that includes multiple points that the Kremlin has already designated as non-starters.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced plans to deploy active reservists to protect infrastructure in the Russian rear, in part to obfuscate likely Kremlin efforts to prepare to deploy reservists to combat in Ukraine in the future.
Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy and defense industrial enterprises overnight on October 21 and 22.
Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces advanced near Lyman.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22, 2025 | ISW

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