Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, numerous seemingly sacrosanct red lines in the region have been crossed, including extensive warfare between Iran and Israel on each other’s territory, and the Houthi threat to commercial freedom of navigation through the Red Sea. The October 7 attack transformed Israel’s approach to the region, centered on striving for an elusive absolute security through preemptive and aggressive military action, even to the point of violating the sovereignty of close U.S. allies in the region. Even though Gaza has been devastated by war, the Palestinian national movement has resumed its role as a core determinant of whether the region descends into all-out warfare or achieves durable peace and stability. Washington remains aligned with Israel and with its Arab allies in preventing Iran from shifting the regional balance of power back in its favor and in defeating Sunni jihadist groups.
A Changed Region Two Years After the October 7 Attack – The Soufan Center