The first phone call between U.S. President Trump and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in August, followed by high-level meetings in Minsk, marked a surprising shift after 15 years of estrangement between the two countries. The issue of political prisoners has become the central focus of U.S. policy toward Belarus, and with over 1,300 people jailed on political grounds since 2020, Lukashenka uses their release as a bargaining tool. The United States now plays the leading role, while Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) remain critical external actors, and Poland’s transit blockade in 2024 forced partial prisoner releases, highlighting Warsaw’s outsized influence. Lukashenka seeks sanctions relief, room to maneuver beyond Moscow, and international legitimacy. Without a comprehensive release of prisoners and genuine reforms, however, any U.S.–Belarus rapprochement will remain fragile and limited.
Belarus’s Political Prisoner Problem Attracting Renewed International Attention – Jamestown
