(Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya – CSIS – 30 September 2025) Western diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire with Moscow have repeatedly failed, showing that despite the immense costs Russia has borne since 2022, its goals in Ukraine remain largely unchanged. Despite mounting economic, military-industrial, and demographic strains, the war remains sustainable for the Kremlin in the foreseeable future. Russia continues to believe it is winning the war of attrition and can eventually overpower and outlast Ukraine. With these factors in mind, this brief outlines the four most plausible scenarios for the trajectory of the war: (1) a Russian breakthrough and the collapse of Ukraine’s military; (2) prolonged low-intensity conflict; (3) a ceasefire; and (4) a peace agreement. The brief assesses the likelihood of each scenario, as well as strategies for Ukraine and the West to maximize favorable outcomes. In all scenarios, shifting the balance and ending the fighting will require sustaining significant investment in European and Ukrainian defense industries to maintain Ukraine’s frontline forces, protect cities from missile and drone attacks, and project force into Russian territory through long-range strikes.
Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Next Chapter (Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya – CSIS)
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