Somalia is heading toward the familiar terrain of an electoral dispute, bringing with it the risk of a fresh flare-up of violence. Borrowing from his predecessor’s playbook, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud introduced a package of electoral reforms, moving from an indirect system in which clan leaders represent constituents to a “one person, one vote” model. Opponents of the change, including rival politicians and assertive subnational units known as federal member states, believe it is designed to favour the president’s bid for re-election in polls due in 2026. Important constituencies are in effect boycotting the process, with parallels to the electoral strife of 2021-2022, which saw street fighting in Mogadishu and polls delayed for over a year. The government has recently shown a newfound openness to rejig its plans, but an electoral framework with broad buy-in remains out of reach. To ease tensions, the government and opponents of the reforms should agree to hold direct votes in districts where possible, and negotiate more representative indirect elections as a halfway house to universal suffrage for state and national polls.
Electoral Showdown in Somalia: Averting Another Round of Turmoil | International Crisis Group
