From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: France; Georgia; Guyana; Japan; Libya; Russia; South Caucasus; US-China; US-War on Cartels
France
(Atlantic Council) Early September is known in France as La Rentrée, when children go back to school and adults return to work after the summer holiday. This year the French are returning to yet another political crisis, too. On Monday, Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote in the National Assembly in Paris, triggering his ouster. Later this week, President Emmanuel Macron is expected to appoint a new prime minister—the fifth in two years. Bayrou had called for Monday’s vote to build momentum for his plans to rein in government deficits with spending cuts and tax increases. Those efforts are now paused, and the political uncertainty to follow could ripple across the continent and beyond. – Experts react: The French government has collapsed again. What does this mean for France, the EU, and Macron? – Atlantic Council
Georgia
(Khatia Shamanauri – The Jamestown Foundation) According to a recent study by the Institute for Development of Freedom of Information (IDFI), re-exports of cars from Georgia are at a historic high, with light vehicles worth $1.2 billion exported in the first six months of 2025. Since 2021, car re-exports from Georgia have increased by 493 percent, with the majority going to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, which together account for 81 percent of total car exports ($981 million). Experts and watchdog organizations warn that the Georgian government’s claims of enforcing sanctions against Russia do not fully reflect reality, raising concerns about gaps in monitoring and potential circumvention of international rules. – Record Car Re-Exports From Georgia Raise Sanctions Evasion Concerns – Jamestown
Guyana
(Wazim Mowla – Atlantic Council) On Sunday, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali was sworn in for a second term leading a country with one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. “The next five years will be the most consequential in our nation,” Ali said in a speech after being sworn in, adding that he would use his second term to “build more prosperity in every family and every home.”. The country overall has experienced a leap in prosperity in recent years. Between 2022 and 2024, Guyana’s economy grew at the mind-boggling rate of 46.9 percent on average per year, according to the International Monetary Fund. The country’s recent surge of economic growth is built on the back of the government’s management of Guyana’s oil resources and investment in nonenergy sectors, such as health, agriculture, construction, and hospitality. With the increased revenues from oil, Ali’s government has begun an overhaul of the country’s infrastructure, such as the soon-to-be-completed Demerara Harbour Bridge and the Eccles to Ogle Highway. Now, with five more years in office, Ali is likely to shift his approach to include a new phase of Guyana’s development, one primarily focused on building a resilient economy. Even with a booming economy, however, there will be challenges, from potential Venezuelan aggression to the need to take ownership as a growing regional leader in the Caribbean. – What Guyanese President Irfaan Ali is likely to focus on in his second term – Atlantic Council
Japan
(Kristi Govella, Nicholas Szechenyi, and Yuko Nakano – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that he would step down in response to mounting pressure within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Since Ishiba took office in October 2024, the LDP has suffered defeats in two separate national elections that resulted in the ruling coalition losing its majority in both houses of parliament for the first time in the last 70 years. Ishiba’s resignation comes at a time when Japan is facing many challenges at home and abroad, including inflation, a weak yen, U.S. tariffs, and security threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. Several LDP leaders have been floated as potential candidates to succeed him in a contest that will be scheduled soon ahead of a new parliamentary session this fall. This hasty political transition could prove a test of Japan’s mettle as it confronts an increasingly unstable domestic and international environment. – Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Steps Down
Libya
(Karim Mezran and Dario Cristiani – Atlantic Council) On August 21, the United Nations Special Representative for Libya, Hanaa Tetteh, presented a new roadmap to the UN Security Council aimed at reviving the country’s stalled political process and offering a renewed prospect for stability after years of deadlock. The proposal comes at a time marked by widespread institutional distrust and growing public frustration, as Libyans grow weary of endless transitional phases that yield no tangible outcomes. Against this backdrop, a significant political development unfolded in eastern Libya: General Khalifa Haftar recently appointed his son, Saddam Haftar, as Deputy General Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA). He framed the move as part of the “General Commander’s Vision 2030” to modernize and enhance the military’s overall performance. Haftar also signaled that this was just the beginning of a broader restructuring involving appointments to “key positions.” – Haftar’s long game: Dynastic power and diplomatic leverage in Libya – Atlantic Council
(The Soufan Center) UN officials are trying to prevent tensions between government and militia forces in western Libya from burgeoning into armed clashes that threaten civilians in and around Tripoli. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, head of the UN-backed government in Tripoli, is intent on dismantling the militias in order to consolidate his authority in the west. Fighting in western Libya will further complicate the already floundering years-long UN effort to unify rival governments in eastern and western Libya and hold national elections. Through its troop deployments, Türkiye is messaging Dbeibeh not to attack militia-held installations, but Ankara is also working with the rival government in eastern Libya to secure its interests in the eastern Mediterranean. – Libya Stands at the Brink of More Fighting – The Soufan Center
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 5 attended the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and military parade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). He discussed the war against Ukraine and Russia’s economic situation.
The Kremlin likely intended for the forum to highlight Russia’s efforts to project independence from the PRC, though low attendance from Asian partners and overambitious export goals revealed limits to Moscow’s regional economic strategy. Russian officials struggle to frame stagnating economic realities while Putin insists on growth, even as deficits soar, oil and gas revenues decline, and Ukraine’s drone strikes exacerbate industrial disruptions. – Putin’s Vladivostok Forum Underwhelming and Alarming – Jamestown
South Caucasus
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) The August 8 summit between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington, D.C., with mediation by U.S. President Donald Trump, reached a deal on the Zangezur Corridor, envisioning an “unimpeded” transit route through Armenia to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave. Domestic opposition in Armenia has fiercely criticized the deal, and with upcoming parliamentary elections in 2026, there is uncertainty about Armenia’s future position. Challenges from Russia and Iran, both of which oppose external involvement in the corridor, add further complexity, with Russia insisting on maintaining the previous agreements it reached with Armenia and Azerbaijan. – Peace in South Caucasus Closer After the Washington Summit, but Uncertainties Loom – Jamestown
US – China
(David M. Hart and Maximilian Hippold – Council on Foreign Relations) The Trump administration is pulling back sharply on large-scale projects that demonstrate cutting-edge energy technologies. Unless Congress steps in forcefully to preserve the program which a bipartisan majority funded just four years ago, the cuts will slow the global response to climate change and hurt U.S. competitiveness in emerging energy technologies. China, meanwhile, is stepping up its investments and seeking to extend its technological lead. – Trump’s Energy Innovation Retreat Is a Win for China, Loss for Climate
US – War on Cartels
(Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On September 3, President Trump announced that the United States had killed 11 “Tren de Aragua Narcoterrorists” in a strike on a suspected drug-carrying boat. He had vowed to “demolish the foreign drug cartels” during the campaign and continued his threats after the inauguration, pointing to the devastating effects of drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has deployed naval assets to the Caribbean, with nine warships now in the region. Two Venezuelan F-16 jets flew over one of these ships last Thursday; on Friday, the administration deployed 10 F-35 jets to Puerto Rico in response. With Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warning that military action “won’t stop with just this strike,” what does a war on cartels mean in military terms? – Going to War with the Cartels: The Military Implications
