The Russian economy has proven much more durable through three and half years of full-scale war in Ukraine, and a decade of Western sanctions, than many would have expected. Expectations of a collapse in the Russian economy were widespread in 2022, as the West initially rolled out extensive sanctions in the aftermath of the full-scale invasion. That collapse did not transpire. The Russian economy has continued to function, even prosper. While suffering a 1.4 per cent real GDP contraction in 2022, it grew in real terms by over 4 per cent per annum over the next two years. Explanations for the durability of the Russian economy are numerous. But a number of important factors have contributed.
The ‘Fortress Russia’ economy has adapted well to pressure. But stagflation presents an opportunity for the West (Timothy Ash – Chatham House)
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