From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: AUKUS; Australia-Terrorism-Drone Technology; China-Shanghai Cooperation Organization; China-Taiwan; Gaza; Geopolitical Risk; India-China; UN; US; US-China
AUKUS
(Frank A. Rose – The Interpreter) While submarines dominate the headlines, it is Pillar II of AUKUS – the push for cutting-edge capabilities – that could define the partnership’s true legacy. Since its launch in 2021, the Australia–United Kingdom–United States (AUKUS) partnership has been dominated by discussion of Pillar I – the effort to provide Australia with nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines. I addressed the enduring strategic importance of this endeavour in my July 2025 article for The Interpreter. Yet, while the submarine program rightly commands attention for its long-term impact on deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, far less focus has been devoted to Pillar II – the trilateral effort to develop advanced capabilities and emerging technologies such as autonomy, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum. – Beyond submarines: Why AUKUS Pillar II matters now | Lowy Institute
Australia – Terrorism – Drone Technology
(Olivia Ortlieb – ASPI The Strategist) The advancement and proliferation of autonomous drones as weapons will make terrorism easier, more destructive, and harder to trace—and Australia is underprepared. Modern commercial drones increasingly incorporate automated satellite-navigation targeting and swarming capabilities, bypassing some traditional constraints on terrorism. Mass drone swarm deployment by Ukraine has shown the world the destructive potential of cheap, weaponised drones, and groups such as Islamic State and Hezbollah are striving to adopt similar playbooks. – Terrorists are adapting to new drone technology. Australia must follow | The Strategist
China – Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(Henrietta Levin – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On August 31 and September 1, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the port city of Tianjin. The 10 SCO members—Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—were joined by numerous partners from South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, as well as the UN secretary-general. – China Showcases Global Ambitions at Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit
China – Taiwan
(Tuvia Gering – ASPI The Strategist) In a rhetorical escalation, the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper compared Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to the Nazis, echoing Russia’s justification for its invasion of Ukraine. This is part of China’s broader pattern of weaponising and rewriting history to suit its needs. On 28 August, the party’s mouthpiece, People’s Daily, featured an article by Wang Yingjin, head of the Center for Cross-Strait Relations at Renmin University in Beijing. In it, he argued that the DPP’s recent drive to unseat dozens of opposition legislators through mass recall votes was doomed to fail. Wang attributed the failure to a litany of problems with the party, including dissatisfaction with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s governance, partisan misuse of democratic mechanisms and harmful policies. Moreover, he feigned concern for Taiwan’s democracy, branding the DPP guilty of ‘green terror’ and ‘dictatorship’. – In calling Taiwan ‘Nazis’, Beijing weaponises history | The Strategist
Gaza
(The Soufan Center) Egypt has begun training Palestinian security forces linked to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) to advance U.S. and Arab plans to govern and secure postwar Gaza. The training and recruitment of Palestinian security forces supports efforts by Arab leaders to assemble a viable “day after” plan and pressure Israel to end the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes a solution in Gaza centered on a return of PA and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) rule in the territory. U.S. officials condition the Arab-led postwar plan on significant reform of the PA, and the U.S. has barred PA President Mahmoud Abbas from attending the UN General Assembly meetings in New York later this month. – Arab Leaders Work to Shape the Gaza “Day After” – The Soufan Center
Geopolitical Risk
(Rowan Callick – ASPI The Strategist) Our world is getting used to waiting anxiously on its top leaders’ directions in a way it hasn’t experienced for 35 years—since Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, assisted by Margaret Thatcher and Pope John Paul II, closed off the Cold War. Geopolitical risk has risen to become a major factor in guiding global investment patterns. Originally, ESG referred to the environmental, social and governance factors dominating decision-making, especially for business. Today, the initials stand more for energy, security and geostrategy, according to Oliver Hartwich, executive director of the New Zealand Initiative think tank, citing Rene van Vlerken, chief executive of finance company Euronext Amsterdam. – Unpredictability of today’s leadership creates insecurity | The Strategist
India – China
(Kazimier Lim – Lowy The Interpreter) No direct commercial flights have connected the world’s two most populous countries for the past five years, a consequence of Covid shutdowns and then simmering tensions between India and China. So, it was a surprise to many that one of the first announcements Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping made at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin was about the resumption of direct commercial flights between the two nations. The timing of this announcement is particularly noteworthy. The decision to resume flights is partly economic. Trade between India and China remains vast: Chinese firms continue to supply everything from machinery to consumer electronics, while Indian pharmaceutical and IT firms rely on predictable Chinese access. – What resuming direct India-China flights reveals about changing regional priorities | Lowy Institute
UN
(Stéphanie Fillion – Lowy The Interpreter) Beyond marking the UN’s 80th anniversary, the upcoming General Assembly high-level week, which will take place 23–29 September, promises to feature a crowded agenda – from the war in Ukraine and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, to Donald Trump’s address and the prospect of Washington drastically cutting its budget contribution to the organisation. But amid the headlines, a quieter yet pivotal battle will begin: the campaign for the next UN Secretary-General. – The UN’s impossible job: Who would want to be the next Secretary-General? | Lowy Institute
US
(Rebecca Patterson and Ishaan Thakker – Council on Foreign Relations) AI investments have contributed meaningfully to U.S. economic growth, but investors could find this financial boon is a double-edged sword next year when it brings greater job cuts. – Will Artificial Intelligence Do More Harm Than Good for U.S. Growth? | Council on Foreign Relations
US – China
(Patricia M. Kim – Brookings) After months of a grinding trade war, the long-anticipated summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is now taking shape. The timing, venue, and agenda remain fluid, but the political momentum is unmistakable. In early August, the Trump administration announced that Washington and Beijing had agreed to extend their tariff truce for another 90 days, citing “significant steps” by Beijing to address U.S. concerns and a mutual commitment to keep talking. The announcement followed senior-level trade talks in London and Stockholm, as well as a first meeting between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi—an encounter that prompted a surprisingly upbeat State Department readout noting that both sides were exploring “areas of potential cooperation.” – The countdown to a Trump-Xi summit | Brookings
