From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Australia-India-US; Australia-US; Australia-Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda; Finland-Ukraine-Russia; France; India-China-US; Indonesia-Papua New Guinea-ASEAN; Quad; Southeast Asia-China; South Pacific-Climate Change; US-FBI-Australia-New Zealand
Australia – India – US
(Peter Varghese – Lowy The Interpreter) The current tension in US-India relations is not just a bilateral issue. It has implications for Australia’s relationship with India. In strictly bilateral terms there is every reason to believe that the positive momentum in Australia-India relations will continue. But the reality is that the Australia and India relationship does not swim in its own undisturbed lane. Strong US-India relations are not a pre-requisite for strong Australia-India relations. But there is no question that the uplift in US-India relations stretching back to the US-India nuclear deal, led by President George W Bush, made the uplift in our own relationship with India easier, including the change in Australia’s position on exporting uranium to India. – The fallout for Australia from US-India tension | Lowy Institute
Australia – US
(Jennifer Parker – ASPI The Strategist) With Defence Minister Richard Marles back from a mysterious trip to the United States, the alliance is back in the spotlight, as it has been since the second Trump administration took office. This week we debated whether Marles’s photo with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth represented a ‘happenstance’ or a ‘meeting’, an issue that represents the chaos in the Pentagon rather than a reflection on the alliance. Yet beneath the headlines lies a more pressing question: in a crisis, how would we fight together in an Indo-Pacific conflict, are our expectations of roles clear and are they truly in Australia’s interest? – Australian self-reliance strengthens alliance with US | The Strategist
Australia – Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda
(Angeline Lewis – ASPI The Strategist) Understanding and applying United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 as a theory of human security offers Australia an edge in its regional engagement. This is particularly so in an era of competition, and a region challenged, as we are, by gender-based violence and the need for economic growth. Leveraging the connection between women’s participation and stability, and longer term with rights-based economic development, is a theme implicit in the 2024 National Defence Strategy, but one that should be called out explicitly for best success. This broader theoretical context of UNSCR1325—the resolution that established the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda—is often overlooked. – WPS can be a competitive edge for Defence | The Strategist
Finland – Ukraine – Russia
(Monique Taylor – Lowy The Interpreter) “If I look at the silver lining of where we stand right now, we found a solution in 1944, and I’m sure that we’ll be able to find a solution in 2025 to end Russia’s war of aggression – find and get a lasting, just peace.”. With those words in August, Finnish President Alexander Stubb was not simply recalling history but situating Finland in the present debate about the prospects for ending the war in Ukraine. Stubb’s allusion was to Finland’s wartime settlement with the Soviet Union, remembered as a morally complex and costly outcome that displaced hundreds of thousands and redrew borders, but one that ensured Finland’s survival as an independent democracy. By linking 1944 to 2025, Stubb was not offering a template for Ukraine, whose circumstances are very different. He was emphasising instead that solutions can be found in challenging times, and that Finland’s history of survival under geopolitical pressure gives weight to its voice in shaping the future of peace in Europe. – Finland’s distinctive credibility in peace efforts for Ukraine | Lowy Institute
France
(Mark Pierce – Lowy The Interpreter) In France, why is the price of bouillabaisse so high but baguettes so cheap? Part of the answer is simply technical, to do with volume, past regulation, and competition in the case of bread, the diversity and scarcity of stocks with Marseille’s fish soup. A larger part of the answer, though, concerns tradition and quality, and the ways in which the French insist on cherishing and protecting facets of their society. As with bouillabaisse and baguettes, so too with cherished French strategies and protected domains in foreign policy – but not its domestic polity. Outsiders worried about France might argue that the country now has no coherent, practical frame of reference for discussing the problems which matter most. Coping with illegal immigration, reducing the budget deficit, modernising the economy, ensuring social harmony, placating farmers – all those issues are not just urgent and critical. They seem too big, too hard, too divisive and too expensive for the political system to resolve. France’s current Prime Minister, François Bayrou, vows to tell the electorate the truth, but how much unwelcome, unpalatable truth and for how long? – Postcard from France: A political system in decline? | Lowy Institute
India – China – US
(R. N. Prasher – Lowy The Interpreter) Despite the high-decibel speculation about what is going on between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi on the one hand, and Modi and Xi Jinping on the other, there is nothing new about the present shenanigans between the two pairs of nations. The history of modern relations between India, China and the United States has been a continuation of now-on, now-off ties. – Nothing new in the India-US spat or Delhi-Beijing bonhomie | Lowy Institute
Indonesia – Papua New Guinea – ASEAN
(Akhmad Hanan – Lowy The Interpreter) Indonesia has taken a decisive step in advocating Papua New Guinea’s entry into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In May, President Prabowo Subianto formally proposed and endorsed PNG’s membership, emphasising that its inclusion would “expand networks of cooperation and strengthen regional resilience”. He also highlighted that, geographically, PNG is Indonesia’s immediate neighbour, sharing a direct border in the east, making its membership both natural and strategic. This reflects Jakarta’s active role in shaping ASEAN’s future architecture and consolidating its geopolitical influence across the Asia–Pacific. – Indonesia’s move to welcome PNG into ASEAN is a win-win | Lowy Institute
Quad
(Justin Bassi, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan and James Corera – ASPI The Strategist) As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped up a high-profile swing through Japan and China this week, the question was whether the hand holding equated to a meeting of the minds. At this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged that ‘the dragon and the elephant must come together.’ This representation of the China-India relationship was as poetic as the Dragonbear description of the China-Russia partnership, and the strategic subtext was just as plain: Beijing is looking for ways to draw Delhi closer at a time of tension between Delhi and Washington. But for the Quad—comprising Australia, the US, India and Japan—its shared principles are stronger than its differences. That is what revitalised the grouping in 2017 and what keeps it alive. It is here that Australia can play a pivotal role. – For the Quad, turbulence doesn’t mean collapse | The Strategist
Southeast Asia – China
(Gatra Priyandita – ASPI The Strategist) Google’s revelation that China mounted a cyber-espionage campaign against Southeast Asian diplomats should surprise no one. State-sponsored cyber operations are a permanent feature of the region’s security landscape, and China has long been one of the most active players. The disclosure matters less for novelty than for clarity: confirmation from a trusted commercial actor that such campaigns are ongoing, targeted and sophisticated. It reinforces what security agencies already know, while providing a public narrative grounded in commercial insight rather than sensitive intelligence. – Silence as strategy: Southeast Asia and China’s persistent cyber campaigns | The Strategist
South Pacific – Climate Change
(Quentin Comminsoli – ASPI The Strategist) Rising sea temperatures could be a particular problem for navies in the South Pacific. Hull corrosion and biofouling could worsen, pushing up maintenance and fuel costs, weakening ships structurally and decreasing their availability. While such effects are increasingly documented in scientific literature, they appear to be overlooked in defence planning—particularly in the South Pacific, where they are intensifying more rapidly due to regional climate dynamics. In fact, in the Southwest Pacific, ocean temperatures reached unprecedented levels in 2024. This is making the ocean more acidic, with a 30 percent decrease in the pH level since the early 19th century. – More hull fouling, more corrosion: effects of warmer South Pacific waters on navies | The Strategist
US – FBI – Australia – New Zealand
(Nick Evans – ASPI The Strategist) Washington established the position of a Federal Bureau of Investigation legal attache (known as a legat) in Wellington in July, touting it as bulwark against Beijing and a boost to regional crime-fighting. Yet casting the creation of the legat as a geopolitical move and policing tool could undermine the partnerships Australia and New Zealand rely on to jail drug-lords and money-launderers. Issued on 31 July, the official FBI press release said the upgraded office would contribute to joint policing ventures, such as investigating and disrupting transnational serious and organised crime, terrorism, child exploitation and foreign interference. – FBI’s Wellington post may undermine regional crime fighting | The Strategist
